World Cup Fever Hits the Prediction Market: How Polymarket and Others Are Breaking Through to the Mainstream?

Objectively speaking, for a long time in the past, the positioning of prediction markets within the Crypto world has been somewhat awkward.

They are very popular within vertical circles but not entirely mainstream. They can compress complex events into a real-time price, yet because they involve sensitive scenarios like politics, sports, and insider information, they have long existed in a regulatory gray area.

However, after the start of the 2026 World Cup, this sector suddenly finds itself in a position that is much easier for the general public to understand.

The reason is simple. The World Cup is arguably the most natural and largest prediction market scenario globally — Who will advance from the group stage? Who will win the championship? Can a certain team reach the quarterfinals? Has the market already priced in the win probability for a key match? These are questions fans discuss daily, but in the past, these discussions were mostly confined to forums and sports media.

On prediction markets like Polymarket, these questions are transformed into tradable probabilities and a price curve that changes with the game's progress. This is also why integrations by Web3 wallets like imToken are truly interesting. It means that prediction markets are not just a trading product; they could become the entry point for ordinary users to participate in real-world events for the first time through their wallets.

1. Prediction Markets Are Entering the "Regulatory" Sphere

If you only look at the front-end product experience, many people might simply understand prediction markets as a "Web3 version of online betting." But in the eyes of regulators, this actually represents a game about the right of definition.

This is because prediction markets trade not just the prices of BTC or ETH, but more broadly, the outcomes of real-world events, such as an economic data point, an election, a policy decision, or even more sensitive geopolitical events.

For this reason, the regulatory issues surrounding prediction markets have never been purely financial from the start. After all, if the market corresponding to a betting event is large enough, theoretically, related parties – especially those with undisclosed information – might have the incentive to influence the outcome itself or trade early using an information advantage.

This is also the core context behind the CFTC's recent re-delineation of rules for prediction markets.

As is well known, over the past two years, prediction market platforms like Polymarket have frequently broken out of their niche through events like the US election, macroeconomic data releases, and geopolitical happenings. This has led to the CFTC effectively accelerating the inclusion of prediction markets and event contracts as key regulatory topics.

CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig recently stated that the agency is in communication with all major US professional sports leagues, aiming to strengthen the regulatory framework for sports-related prediction markets and prevent insider trading and market manipulation risks. This focus is particularly crucial for the sports market, as sporting events are inherently suitable for prediction but also naturally sensitive.

Therefore, recent actions in this area almost all share a common characteristic: acknowledging the informational value of prediction markets while accelerating the separation of the most problematic scenarios.

For example, Kalshi has publicly stated it will prohibit political candidates from trading in markets related to their own campaigns and will also prevent athletes, coaches, referees, and other related personnel from professional and college sports events from participating in trading related to their own events. Polymarket also updated its Market Integrity Rules in March, explicitly prohibiting trading using stolen information, illegally obtained information, or other improper information sources, and strengthening constraints against market manipulation and information abuse.

The establishment of an information-sharing mechanism between MLB and the CFTC also indicates that both sports leagues and regulators recognize that once prediction markets enter the mainstream sports scene, issues related to event integrity must be addressed proactively.

In other words, prediction markets are moving from a phase of wild growth into one more akin to financial infrastructure. For Polymarket, Kalshi, and other platforms to follow, this represents both a constraint and an opportunity.

2. Why the World Cup Could Be Prediction Markets' Breakout Moment

For prediction markets to break out, a regulatory shift alone is not enough. They also need a sufficiently large public event.

The World Cup perfectly meets this condition.

Many of Crypto's past breakout moments occurred at the intersection of "high cognitive threshold technology" and "low cognitive threshold scenarios." For instance, NFTs broke out because they tied on-chain assets to avatars, art, and community identity. Memecoins spread rapidly because they compressed complex financial behaviors into simple emotions and cultural symbols.

If prediction markets are to reach a wider user base, the best entry point is not macroeconomic data or complex political contracts, but scenarios that the public is already willing to discuss, such as sports, entertainment, and major events.

The unique aspect of the World Cup is that it naturally possesses three conditions.

• First, it has global consensus. Even non-hardcore fans can understand questions like who wins, who loses, who advances, and who wins the championship.
• Second, it has a high-frequency information flow. Things like pre-match lineups, real-time form, injury updates, tactical changes, and the game's progress constantly shift market expectations.
• Third, it has strong social attributes. Watching a game is not an isolated act but a process involving group chats, sharing, discussions, debates, and emotional resonance.

This has similarities to traditional sports betting, but also clear differences.

Traditional odds are mostly determined by the bookmaker system, where users see a price processed by the platform. Prediction markets, in contrast, emphasize peer-to-peer trading, price discovery, and transparent outcome settlement. Especially within a crypto-native environment, the flow of funds, transaction records, and settlement process are easier to verify, giving prediction markets greater openness and observability.

Of course, this doesn't mean prediction markets are inherently "superior" to traditional sports betting. The essence of prediction markets is still risk trading. However, they do offer a new way to participate in events.

It's particularly noteworthy that according to the latest disclosed data, the overall trading volume of prediction markets continued to climb in April 2026, reaching approximately $29.8 billion, a month-over-month increase of 12.4%. However, within this growing pie, Polymarket's total trading volume in April actually decreased by 8.9% compared to March. Meanwhile, competitor Kalshi, which focuses on a compliance path and is rapidly scaling through federal regulatory frameworks and sports contracts, bucked the trend with a 13% increase in volume, reaching approximately $14.8 billion.

This data sends a clear signal that the fundamentals of the prediction market landscape are undergoing a major shift.

In the past, Polymarket attracted significant crypto-native capital through global political games, crypto ecosystem events, and macroeconomic narratives. Now, platforms like Kalshi are aggressively capturing market share, leveraging compliant user onboarding and sports contracts.

This also means that whoever can capture the "sports" segment – a universally shared human interest – will hold a competitive advantage in the next phase of user acquisition.

3. From Assets to Events: A Seamless Evolution of the Wallet

This is precisely why imToken's World Cup prediction activity is noteworthy.

Currently, users can enter Polymarket through imToken to participate in predictions related to World Cup themes. If users predict correctly, they earn rewards according to Polymarket's rules; if they predict incorrectly, they have a chance to receive experience tokens subsidized by imToken (the first 200 users receive a 5 USDT subsidy). Users can also share prediction records and World Cup opinions through X (formerly Twitter) interactions.

On the surface, this is just a World Cup event. But viewed against the broader industry backdrop, it actually points to an extension of the wallet's role.

Historically, the core functions of a wallet were asset custody and on-chain interaction. Users used wallets to send and receive tokens, connect to DApps, authorize, sign, swap, and participate in DeFi or NFT trading. In short, the wallet is the entry point to the Crypto world, but this entry point has largely revolved around "assets."

The emergence of prediction markets presents an opportunity for wallets to become "event participation entry points." This is easy to understand. A user might care about the World Cup without first caring about Crypto. A user might want to judge a match without first understanding on-chain trading.

But when the World Cup, Polymarket, USDC, a wallet entry point, and social sharing are combined, the user journey in Crypto is rewritten. The path is not: learn the wallet first, then enter the complex on-chain world. Instead, it becomes: start with a real-world event you already care about, complete a lightweight on-chain participation.

This is crucial for mainstream users.

The barrier for many Crypto products in the past was that users first had to understand concepts like public chains, gas fees, wallets, authorization, DEXs, and cross-chain bridges before knowing why they needed to use them. Prediction markets flip this. They first present the user with a clear question: Do you think this outcome will happen? Are you willing to express your judgment with a small amount of capital?

When the question is intuitive enough, the cost of product education is drastically lowered.

This is the greatest significance the World Cup holds for prediction markets. It's not just about generating a wave of trading volume. It provides Crypto with a rare mass-market narrative scenario. For Crypto, this might be more important than trading volume alone.

The World Cup gives prediction markets this reason, and wallets could become the entry point that captures this reason.

Final Thoughts

Of course, prediction markets will not achieve mainstream status overnight because of a single CFTC proposal or a single World Cup event.

They still face many issues. Regulatory boundaries are still being formed. Market manipulation and insider information need governance. User privacy and on-chain security need attention. Ordinary users also need to understand that prediction markets are not a guaranteed money-making game.

But the direction is becoming increasingly clear.

So, will the prediction market become a new gateway for Crypto to break out during the World Cup? The answer is not necessarily a simple "yes" or "no."

More accurately, the World Cup is pushing prediction markets from a tool for niche speculators towards a widely accessible scenario for participating in major events. As more users participate in real-world events through their wallets for the first time, the entry point to Crypto might no longer just be market prices and assets, but every public event that is unfolding.

Let's wait and see.