BIT Research: Will 2022 Repeat? The World Cup Could Mark the End of Bitcoin's Bear Market
- Core Viewpoint: The current Bitcoin market is in the final C-wave decline of this bear market. The $50,000–$55,000 range is expected to be the core bottom area, and peak inflation could become the key macro catalyst for the next bull market.
- Key Elements:
- The A-B-C corrective structure has completed the A-wave decline to $60,000–$69,000 and the B-wave rebound to $83,000. The market is currently in the C-wave decline phase.
- The target area for the C-wave is around $50,000, with the low point expected to occur during the FIFA World Cup in June and July 2026.
- The Fear & Greed Index has fallen back to historical lows, similar to the bottom structure of the 2022 bear market, but cycle indicators have not yet issued a final reversal signal.
- Bitcoin's realized price is $54,591, which is an important reference for judging when the market enters an undervalued zone, as prices typically do not stay below this level for long.
- The macro environment is similar to 2022, with inflation still being the main factor suppressing risk assets. Peak inflation could drive a market turnaround.
The current market is in the final stages of this Bitcoin bear market. The A-B-C corrective structure proposed in early 2026 is progressing as expected: Wave A fell to the $60,000–$69,000 range, Wave B rebounded to the $80,000–$90,000 range, peaking around $83,000, and the market has now entered the Wave C decline phase.
From a sentiment indicator perspective, the Fear and Greed Index has fallen back to historically low levels, still showing considerable similarity to the bear market bottom structure of 2022. Although we are currently closer to a "tradable bottom," cyclical indicators have not yet issued a definitive reversal signal. In this process, the market's focus is shifting from short-term volatility to the conditions for forming a bottom and the potential macro catalysts for the next bull market.
Bear Market Enters Final Stage: $50,000–$55,000 Could Be the Key Zone
From a technical structure perspective, the top formation in 2025 is highly similar to that of 2021. Both cycles experienced a rapid surge, a breakdown below the 21-week moving average, a temporary rebound, and then a renewed weakening. Historical experience shows that true bottoms often form with declining volume and a narrowing trading range, rather than a rapid V-shaped reversal.
Currently, the Fear and Greed Index is at historical lows, stochastic indicators are deep in oversold territory, and Bitcoin's price is approaching two standard deviations below the weekly moving average, with the $61,576 level potentially offering temporary support. According to the cyclical analysis framework, the final market low has not yet been reached.
Based on Elliott Wave Theory, since the bear market began in October 2025, Bitcoin has entered a typical A-B-C corrective structure. With the Wave B rally ending after reaching $83,000 in mid-May, the current Wave C decline is unfolding, with a potential target zone near $50,000. The low point is expected to occur around the FIFA World Cup period (June 11 to July 19, 2026). Overall, the $50,000–$55,000 range is likely to be the core bottoming zone for this bear market.
Peak Inflation Could Be the Key Catalyst for the Next Bull Market
From a macro perspective, the current market environment shows some similarities to 2022, with inflation still being a primary factor weighing on risk assets. In the previous cycle, the peak of inflation became a crucial turning point for the market, and a similar macro path could repeat in this cycle.
Currently, Bitcoin's realized price is approximately $54,591. This metric is a key reference for identifying undervalued market conditions. Historical experience suggests that while the price may briefly dip below this level, it typically does not stay there for long. Meanwhile, cyclical indicators have yet to provide a bottom confirmation signal, and the actual low may still require 1 to 3 months for confirmation.
If the price completes its bottoming process and recovers above the 21-week moving average, coupled with a positive reversal in monthly cyclical indicators, it could confirm the start of a new upward cycle. Until then, the market will remain in a bottom-building phase.
Overall, this bear market is nearing its end. The A-B-C corrective structure, cyclical indicators, and the macro backdrop all point in the same direction: the $50,000–$55,000 range likely represents the value zone for this bear market, while the realized price of $54,591 serves as a key long-term reference level. Although the exact timing of the low point still depends on inflation trends and the confirmation of cyclical indicators, historical experience shows that real bottoms often do not appear as obvious buying opportunities. As inflation pressures gradually ease and cyclical signals improve, the next bull market is likely to begin near the $50,000–$55,000 range.
Some of the above views are from BIT on Target. Contact us to get the full BIT on Target report.
Disclaimer: Markets are risky, and investment requires caution. This content does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading involves significant risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.
