BIT Research: If It Kept Pace with NASDAQ, Bitcoin Would Be Close to $140,000
- Key Point: The market is undergoing a macro adjustment driven by inflation repricing. Bitcoin, due to its high sensitivity to interest rate paths and lack of a structural mechanism to benefit from inflation, has underperformed NASDAQ. Its core support — loose liquidity expectations — is weakening.
- Key Factors:
- Rising inflation data: U.S. CPI increased from 2.4% to 3.8%, and PPI rose from 2.9% to 6.0%. Market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 have begun to reverse.
- Exacerbated energy shock: The situation in Iran has driven oil prices up by approximately 40% since late February 2026, intensifying inflation concerns.
- Divergence between Bitcoin and tech stocks: The divergence has widened since October 2025. The theoretical price (based on NASDAQ performance) and the current price show a gap of about $140,000.
- Differences in asset characteristics: Bitcoin, as a long-duration asset, is sensitive to interest rates. However, unlike stocks, it does not directly benefit from inflation through nominal revenue or debt dilution.
- Future inflation path: BIT's model predicts CPI could rise to 6.0%, and the energy demand driven by AI infrastructure expansion may prolong the period of high inflation.
- Expectation of oil price decline: The market expects oil prices to gradually fall from $101 to $89 by September 2026 and $73 by January 2028, but short-term supply bottlenecks persist.
The current market is in a macro adjustment phase dominated by the repricing of inflation. If Bitcoin were able to continue tracking the Nasdaq, its current price would theoretically be close to $140,000. However, since October 2025, the divergence between the two has begun to widen significantly. The core reason behind this is the resurgence of inflation in the United States, which has led to a reversal in market expectations regarding the path of interest rate cuts.
The latest data shows that the US CPI has risen from the previous 2.4% to 3.8%, while the PPI has increased from 2.9% to 6.0%. Simultaneously, the interest rate market is gradually pricing out some of the expectations for rate cuts in 2026. For Bitcoin, the liquidity easing expectations that previously supported the rally are beginning to wane. At the same time, the escalation of tensions in Iran has pushed oil prices up by approximately 40% since late February 2026, with rising energy costs further reinforcing market concerns about inflation.
Based on current pricing, the market still tends to view this round of inflation as a temporary pressure disturbance. However, with the growing linkage between energy, interest rates, and risk appetite, the market is also beginning to reassess the risk that the high-interest-rate environment might persist for longer. In this process, Bitcoin's performance has started to lag noticeably behind tech stocks, which can benefit from nominal inflation.
Inflation Repricing: Why Bitcoin Struggles to Benefit from a High-Inflation Environment
Most investors tend to equate "monetary expansion" with "inflation," but the two actually correspond to entirely different market phases. In the past few years, the key driving force behind Bitcoin's rise was essentially loose liquidity and expectations of rate cuts, rather than inflation itself. In December 2022, the BIT model had already indicated that price pressures would slow down significantly, foreshadowing a potential shift in central bank policy towards signaling rate cuts. This also became a crucial starting point for the rise of tech stocks and Bitcoin from 2023 to 2025.
The problem, however, is that when inflation truly begins to rear its head again, the market logic changes. Even without actual rate hikes materializing, the mere expectation that "rates will stay higher for longer" is enough to trigger a repricing of Bitcoin. As a typical long-duration asset, Bitcoin is highly sensitive to the path of interest rates. Once expectations for rate cuts are withdrawn, its valuation comes under pressure.
Furthermore, unlike stocks, Bitcoin cannot structurally benefit within a certain inflationary environment. Stocks may not only benefit from rising nominal corporate revenues but can also see their real debt burden reduced to some extent. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has no debt to be diluted by inflation and possesses no cash flow that can expand with it, making it difficult to directly benefit from this inflationary rebound. This also explains the significant divergence recently observed between the Nasdaq and Bitcoin.
From Energy Shock to Interest Rate Constraints: The Market Begins to Reassess the Liquidity Path
The question truly concerning the current market is no longer just "whether inflation is rising," but whether persistently high inflation will force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for an extended period. The BIT model predicts that US CPI could even rise further to 6.0% in the future. If this scenario materializes, Bitcoin may experience periodic pullbacks around each CPI and PPI data release in the future.
Meanwhile, although the crude oil futures curve suggests that oil prices will gradually decline over time, it is difficult for them to return soon to the pre-war level of around $63. The market has already priced in a long-term premium of approximately 15% into oil prices, reflecting genuine supply bottlenecks. Starting from the current oil price of around $101, the market expects crude oil prices to fall back to $89 by September 2026, $80 by January 2027, and further down to $73 by January 2028.
Besides geopolitical and energy factors, the expansion of AI infrastructure may also be altering the inflation path the market has previously become accustomed to. Data center construction, electricity demand, and infrastructure capital expenditure are continuously exerting upward pressure on energy costs. This implies that inflation could remain above the target level for longer than the market had previously anticipated. In this environment, tech stocks can benefit from order growth and improved earnings expectations, whereas Bitcoin is more vulnerable to suppression by the high-interest-rate climate.
Overall, the core of this market shift is not that Bitcoin's long-term narrative has been compromised, but that the resurgence of inflation is forcing the market to reassess the path of interest rates and liquidity. In the short term, a high-inflation environment may continue to suppress Bitcoin's performance, causing it to periodically underperform the Nasdaq. However, this does not signify a bearish turn for the market; rather, it only slows down Bitcoin's upward trajectory. As the market eventually begins to factor in expectations of renewed liquidity easing, Bitcoin could regain its support.
The above perspectives are partly derived from BIT on Target. Contact us to obtain the full BIT on Target report.
Disclaimer: Market risk exists, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset transactions may involve significant risks and instability. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.
