美以伊冲突超100天，和解关键之一在资产解冻？

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser 2010 )

On June 10, the 103rd day since the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran war, negotiations between the US and Iran remain difficult and inconclusive.

Today, following Israel's strikes against Iran, according to US officials, the third round of US strikes on Iran has also begun and quickly concluded. Behind this century-defining conflict, the key to reconciliation lies not only in deeper issues of Iran's nuclear weapons and uranium enrichment materials. The current critical sticking point for both sides may be the frozen Iranian assets held by the US, totaling $24 billion, including approximately $1 billion in crypto assets.

Where did these assets come from? What do the crypto assets include? Can the US and Iran reach an agreement on this matter going forward? These are the main topics of this article.

Trump's Bizarre "Hot and Cold" Approach: Coexisting Toughness and Compromise

Whether the US-Iran conflict can end through negotiations hinges on US President Trump. However, Trump, a businessman by background, is particularly shrewd and, compared to politician-type presidents, focuses more on tangible interests. Thus, his public image is extremely fragmented: on one hand, his statements alternate between tough and soft; on the other hand, he is accustomed to creating confusion, using excuses like negotiations, reconciliation, and "imminent agreements" to mislead Iran and even global news media, thereby achieving "capital market manipulation" and other less transparent goals.

According to CNN reports, since the outbreak of the Iran war on February 28, Trump has made statements like "a US-Iran agreement is imminent" over 30 times in social media, public appearances, and telephone interviews with journalists (Odaily Planet Daily note: some sources say at least 37 times).

Given this, Iran does not harbor illusions about a "one-step" negotiation but has divided its plan into four stages.

On June 4, according to Iranian media Fars News, Iran outlined a four-stage plan to reach an agreement with the US:

• The first stage focuses on a comprehensive cessation of military operations on all fronts, including Iran, the US, and the Axis of Resistance;
• The second stage centers on implementation measures for four key issues, including: the Strait of Hormuz and related mechanisms, lifting the blockade, removing oil restrictions and sanctions, and unfreezing some Iranian assets;
• The third stage will initiate broader negotiations on sanctions and nuclear issues after objective and verifiable measures are implemented;
• The fourth stage involves establishing a supervisory committee to oversee the execution of the agreement and track each party's compliance.

Previously, the US and Iran had reached a truce, but affected by Israel's renewed attacks on Iran and volatile situations in Lebanon, the efforts of the first stage were temporarily broken. The second stage is the main sticking point in US-Iran negotiations.

Specific Amount of Frozen Iranian Assets: Iran Claims $24 Billion, US Seized $1 Billion in Crypto Assets

Earlier, according to CNN, a US official familiar with the negotiations stated that one of the remaining key sticking points in US-Iran talks is economic compensation, as Trump is eager to secure an agreement perceived as superior to the one from the Obama era.

The official said that Iran has indicated to mediators that once a preliminary memorandum of understanding is reached, they want some form of economic compensation as soon as possible, rather than having it deferred. However, Trump administration officials fear that unfreezing funds at such an early stage might reduce the economic pressure on Iran—potentially eliminating or at least weakening a key leverage point Washington holds over Tehran. This leverage will be crucial for the US to enter the second stage of negotiations discussing specific details of Iran's nuclear program. Trump has made it clear to his team that he wants any agreement to appear much tougher than the 2015 deal and avoid any actions that could be interpreted as "delivering large sums of cash"—a phrase Trump used to criticize Obama's decision to provide economic compensation to Iran.

On June 6, media reports indicated that a potential agreement between the US and Iran depends on whether the US agrees to release $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets. This amount was later confirmed by Iranian officials.

On the same day, according to Iran's Tasnim News Agency, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs, Kazem Gharibabadi, stated that at least 50% of Iran's frozen financial assets must be unfrozen immediately upon signing any memorandum of understanding with the US. He added that the remaining funds should be "unfrozen within a limited period of one to two months after signing the agreement." Gharibabadi said these assets belong to Iran and were "illegally frozen" by the US, and unfreezing them is a core requirement of any potential understanding. He stated that further details of the fund access mechanism, including technical and financial arrangements, would be negotiated during the 60-day execution period after the memorandum is signed.

However, this demand was quickly firmly rejected by Trump, who said he would not prematurely unfreeze Iranian assets or lift any sanctions in any agreement.

At the end of May, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a Fox News interview that the US had seized approximately $1 billion in Iranian crypto assets. Bessent stated the action was part of sanctions against the Iranian regime and its proxy network, and the funds have been frozen. This includes about $344 million in USDT stablecoins frozen by stablecoin issuer Tether in April, as well as other cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH.

He stated that before the Treasury Department intervened, the Iranian regime was stealing $400 million to $500 million per month and distributing it to dozens of senior officials. "We are working with allies across Europe to seize various villas, houses, and properties," Bessent explained. "And this money is essentially stolen from the Iranian people." According to Bitcoin News analysis, Bessent's initial disclosure in late April cited a figure of "around $500 million," while the latest figure on May 29 exceeded $1 billion, indicating escalating enforcement of the operation named "Operation Economic Fury."

Notably, according to Wikipedia, the US had also previously seized a skyscraper owned by the Iranian government in Manhattan (valued at over $1 billion) along with its accumulated rent (approximately $50 million).

Additionally, according to the latest media reports, the US is considering using frozen Iranian assets to fund the reconstruction and repair of Gulf states affected by the "US-Israel-Iran conflict." Sources familiar with the matter say Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has instructed relevant teams to assess the damage inflicted by Iran on Gulf allies. Furthermore, the US is also considering using frozen Iranian assets to cover potential future losses.

Based on the above information, although Trump last night stated that "we are very close to a very good, strong, and powerful deal," it remains difficult to reach a reconciliation in the US-Israel-Iran conflict before reparations and the handling of frozen assets are determined.

As for the impact on crypto assets, it is mainly limited to macro-level effects on the overall crypto market trend, with minimal impact on specific currencies like BTC and ETH in terms of market sell-offs.

In the coming period, although both sides hope to end the conflict quickly, constrained by interest disputes and the international situation, "negotiating while fighting, and fighting while negotiating" may remain the norm for the US, Iran, and even Israel.