“囤币神话”终结，Strategy 3年来首次卖出BTC

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser 2010 )

“The first crypto treasury stock”、“BTC’s biggest diamond hands” Strategy has started selling coins! According to Strategy's disclosure, last week it sold 32 Bitcoins at an average price of $77,135, generating $2.5 million.

Possibly affected by this news, BTC fell below $71,000 last night and is currently trading around $70,560; U.S. stock market closed with a broad decline in crypto-related stocks, with Bullish down 7.99%, DeFi Development down 7.97%, Circle down 7.11%, Strategy down 5.85%, and Upexi down 5.04%.

Strategy's move to stop buying BTC and make a small sale has worsened the already liquidity-tight crypto market. As major CEXs compete for U.S. stock trading, the crypto market continues to bleed.

Strategy Selling Coins: Not the First Time, But This Time is Different

This BTC sale is not the first time in Strategy's history.

In 2022, following the collapse of FTX, the second-largest crypto exchange at the time, the crypto industry entered a harsh winter, with BTC once falling below $20,000; On December 22, 2022, Strategy sold 704 BTC at $16,776, and quickly bought back 810 BTC at $16,845 on December 24, 2022.

Strategy’s latest sale is mainly to redeem STRC financing dividends.

As a fixed-income digital credit product launched by Strategy, STRC can be considered its “flagship product”. However, after repurchasing $1.5 billion in convertible debt last month, Strategy's cash reserves dropped to approximately $871 million, covering only about 6 months of its estimated $1.7 billion annual preferred dividend obligation. On May 29, STRC once fell to $97.11, before recovering and closing at $98.57.

Strategy stated in its Q1 earnings report in early May: “If the convertible notes mature or are redeemed without conversion into common stock, the company may need to sell common stock or Bitcoin to generate sufficient cash to fulfill these obligations.” At that time, Strategy recorded a net loss of $12.54 billion in Q1, almost entirely from unrealized BTC losses ($14.46 billion); as of the end of Q1, the total cost basis of 818,334 BTC was $61.81 billion, corresponding to an average purchase price of approximately $75,537 per coin. Recommended reading: 《Strategy Q1 Earnings Report: Book Loss of $14.4 Billion, Does Not Rule Out Selling Coins to Pay Interest》

Of course, from a corporate operational perspective, Strategy's move is understandable, and Michael Saylor previously stated: “Even if I sell 1 BTC, I will buy 10 to 20 times more.” Selling is to buy better in the future. However, from an industry confidence perspective, Strategy's move has not only temporarily declared a “dead end for the crypto treasury model” but also significantly dampened the enthusiasm for accumulating and buying coins in the crypto space, heavily impacting short-term market buying and selling.

After selling 32 BTC this time, Strategy still holds 843,706 BTC, valued at $60.936 billion, with an average cost price of $75,699, and an unrealized loss of $2.932 billion. Last month, thanks to an overall market rebound, Strategy's holdings briefly showed an unrealized profit of $8.2 billion.

Notably, on May 28, Strategy founder Michael Saylor published a “HODL” (Hold On for Dear Life) themed article, urging the market to hold Bitcoin steadfastly amid the current downturn.

The “Muddled Accounts” Behind Strategy’s Coin Sale: Polymarket’s “If the Official Doesn’t Say, It Didn’t Happen” Farce

Beyond the coin sale itself, the “event determination farce” involving the prediction market Polymarket is quite amusing.

As we mentioned earlier in the article 《Strategy Q1 Earnings Report: Book Loss of $14.4 Billion, Does Not Rule Out Selling Coins to Pay Interest》, the probability of “Strategy selling BTC before May 31” was only around 40% at that time.

As May ended, on June 1, Polymarket data showed that the probability of Strategy selling Bitcoin in May surged from 12% to 80% from the previous day's low, but later fell back to 58%, with cumulative market trading exceeding $16.4 million.

Ultimately, the matter was resolved with a "No" outcome after an official ruling by Polymarket. Polymarket officially stated, “We are aware that there is a dispute regarding this prediction market. If a clarification announcement is needed, it will be released at 1:00 PM Eastern Time on June 1; if no statement is issued by then, it means the Polymarket team will not provide further clarification. Regardless of whether a clarification is released, the order book will be settled at 1:00 PM Eastern Time that day.”

Because Strategy did not issue an official statement about the coin sale, the event was ultimately settled as “Strategy did not sell BTC in May.” This once again proves that prediction markets trade not on the “truth of the facts themselves,” but on “events as defined by the rules.”

BTC’s “Digital Gold” Narrative Shaken, “Safe Haven Asset” Status Damaged

Following the news of Strategy's coin sale, economist, gold investment advocate, and crypto critic Peter Schiff posted, stating that “Strategy selling 32 Bitcoins last week” signals a shift for the company as the “largest Bitcoin buyer” turning into a seller, and questioned the source of new demand.

Billionaire investor Mark Cuban, who previously viewed BTC as a “superior version of gold,” recently also stated that he has sold most of his Bitcoin holdings due to waning confidence in Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation and geopolitical risks, expressing clear disappointment with BTC's “digital gold” narrative.

JPMorgan also stated in a previous analysis that the “devaluation trade” for gold and BTC is heating up, with investors exiting safe-haven assets.

With prices taking hit after hit, perhaps BTC and the crypto market can only wait for the Trump administration to “love crypto once more.”