对冲基金一季度解读：每个人都在抛软件，买芯片
- 核心观点：2025年第一季度，美国对冲基金与大型共同基金在科技板块内部达成罕见共识，系统性抛售软件股并显著涌入半导体板块，将半导体在对冲基金多头组合中的权重推至历史最高水平，同时市场多空博弈同步加剧。
- 关键要素：
- 半导体在对冲基金多头组合中的权重创历史新高，而软件权重降至2019年以来最低；共同基金软件持仓降至2012年最低。
- 一季度对冲基金回报率达7%，但仅30%大型共同基金跑赢基准；对冲基金净杠杆回升至近一年高位，标普500卖空比例升至2011年以来最高的3%。
- 个股层面，微软成为两类机构上季度净减持规模最大的股票之一；对冲基金净增持LRCX、AMAT、ASML，共同基金增持INTC和SITM。
- 策略分化：对冲基金在二季度迅速加仓，而共同基金选择将现金占比从历史低点1.1%上调至1.4%，但仍处极低水平。
- 板块共识与分歧：两类机构均超配工业、低配信息技术，但调仓方向相反；对冲基金大幅提升信息技术净倾斜度，共同基金则削减。
Original Author: Zhao Ying
Original Source: Wall Street CN
In the first quarter, U.S. hedge funds and large mutual funds reached a rare consensus: selling software stocks and piling into semiconductors, pushing the semiconductor weight in long portfolios to an all-time high.
According to Goldman Sachs' latest "Hedge Fund Trend Monitor" and "Mutual Fund Fundamentals" reports, this analysis covers 1,059 hedge funds (with $4.6 trillion in total stock holdings) and 509 large actively managed mutual funds (with $3.9 trillion in stock assets).
The report shows that hedge funds have achieved a 7% return so far this year, while only 30% of large mutual funds outperformed their benchmarks, below the historical average of 37% since 2007.
The U.S. first-quarter 13F filings reveal a clear market consensus: hedge funds and mutual funds are simultaneously selling software stocks and flooding into the semiconductor sector. The scale of this rotation is significant enough to push the weight of semiconductors in hedge fund long portfolios to an all-time high.
In terms of position structure, hedge fund net leverage has rebounded to the 85th percentile over the past five years, reaching a one-year high. Meanwhile, the average short-selling ratio of S&P 500 constituents rose to 3% of market capitalization, the highest level since 2011, indicating that long and short speculative activity is heating up simultaneously.
Semiconductor Positions Hit Record High, Software Faces Systematic Reduction
The structural rotation within the tech sector was the most prominent theme of the quarter.
Goldman Sachs data shows that the weight of semiconductors in hedge fund long portfolios has risen to its highest level on record, while the weight of software has fallen to its lowest since 2019. On the mutual fund side, software positions dropped to their lowest since 2012. Excluding Microsoft, mutual funds' overweight in semiconductors relative to software was also the largest since 2012.
At the individual stock level, Microsoft (MSFT) was one of the stocks most net sold by both hedge funds and mutual funds last quarter. Mutual funds also broadly reduced positions in other members of the "Magnificent Seven." While hedge funds reduced positions in most of the "Magnificent Seven," they achieved net increases in META and AAPL.
Among individual semiconductor stocks, hedge funds made net purchases of LRCX, AMAT, and ASML; mutual funds net purchased INTC and SITM.
Leverage and Cash: Aggressive Hedge Funds vs. Conservative Mutual Funds
Faced with rising geopolitical tensions in the first quarter, the response strategies of the two types of institutions diverged significantly.
Hedge funds initially cut net leverage but quickly added positions as the market rebounded in the second quarter, pushing net exposure back to a one-year high. Gross leverage remains relatively elevated compared to historical levels.
Mutual funds, on the other hand, chose to increase cash allocations, raising cash as a percentage of assets from a historical low of 1.1% in early 2026 to 1.4% in early April.
Nevertheless, this level remains extremely low compared to history, suggesting that mutual funds have not broadly withdrawn from the equity market.
Sector Consensus and Divergence: Industrials Overweight, Tech Splits
In terms of sector allocation, the two types of institutions show high consensus but also notable exceptions. Both hedge funds and mutual funds are overweight in the industrial sector and underweight in the information technology sector, but their adjustment directions are completely opposite.
Hedge funds increased their net tilt towards information technology by 853 basis points in the first quarter, the largest single-quarter change on record for this sector, while simultaneously reducing their net tilt towards industrials by 297 basis points.
Mutual funds moved in the opposite direction, increasing exposure to industrials by 24 basis points and reducing exposure to information technology by 20 basis points.
The two sectors with the most significant divergence are financials and consumer discretionary: mutual funds are overweight in financials while hedge funds are underweight; hedge funds are overweight in consumer discretionary while mutual funds are underweight.
Four 'Common Favorites' Outperform the Market Year-to-Date
This quarter, Goldman Sachs identified four "common favorite" stocks appearing on both the Hedge Fund VIP List (GSTHHVIP) and the Mutual Fund Overweight List (GSTHMFOW): Boeing (BA), Mastercard (MA), Marvell Technology (MRVL), and Visa (V). MRVL is a new addition this quarter, while Citigroup (C) and Vertiv (VRT) exited the list.
These four stocks have returned 10% year-to-date, outperforming the equal-weight S&P 500 index by 3 percentage points.
Over the longer term, since 2013, the "common favorite" portfolio has generated an annualized return of 16%, but with a high standard deviation of 22%, indicating significant volatility. The median stock in this portfolio currently trades at a P/E ratio of 34 times, a notable premium over the median S&P 500 stock at 18 times.
Notably, all members of the "Magnificent Seven" are included in the Hedge Fund VIP list, but all are underweighted by mutual funds, creating a stark contrast in the attitudes of the two types of institutions towards this core asset class.
