原油价格何去何从？伊朗冲突阴影下的能源市场全解析

Overview

On February 28, 2026, the joint US-Israel military operation commenced, plunging the global energy market into its most severe supply shock since the 1973 oil crisis. The Strait of Hormuz—a critical waterway carrying approximately 20% of the world's daily crude oil and liquefied natural gas—was brought to a near standstill. Brent crude surged from under $80 per barrel to a peak of $138 within weeks of the conflict's outbreak, before gradually retreating on peace talk expectations. However, as of May 26, 2026, prices remain elevated, oscillating between $97 and $105 per barrel.

The impact of this geopolitical storm extends far beyond the Middle East. Global inflation is re-emerging, gasoline prices have risen sharply in many countries, and costs have skyrocketed for energy-intensive industries such as aviation, chemicals, and shipping. Concurrently, the crisis has created unprecedented trading opportunities for commodity traders and digital asset investors.

Key Takeaways

The de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a daily supply disruption of approximately 14 million barrels of crude oil, over three times the scale of the 1973 Arab oil embargo.

Brent crude hit a peak of $138/barrel and is currently (May 2026) consolidating in the $97–$105/barrel range.

The latest EIA forecast projects a 2026 average Brent price of around $96/barrel, falling to $89 in the latter half of the year as the Strait gradually reopens.

Goldman Sachs has lowered its Q2 Brent forecast to $90/barrel, maintaining Q3 at $82 and Q4 at $80.

The head of ADNOC has stated clearly that even if the conflict ends immediately, full resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is not expected until at least Q1 or Q2 of 2027.

Oil price trends are highly dependent on diplomatic progress, with each round of peace talk signals triggering significant price volatility.

1. Why is This Conflict So Unique?

Historically, Middle East turmoil has frequently impacted oil prices, but the scale of destruction this time is unprecedented. According to data from the IEA's April Oil Market Report, global oil supply plummeted by 10.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in March 2026 to 97 million bpd, the largest single-month drop in modern history.

The root cause: The Strait of Hormuz previously saw daily oil flows of approximately 20 million bpd, covering major exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait. According to ICIS analysts' assessments, the conflict has resulted in a loss of about 14 million bpd of Middle Eastern production, a gap that no overland alternative route can fill.

In comparison, the 1973 Arab oil embargo removed only about 4 to 5 million bpd from the market, yet it caused oil prices to quadruple and triggered recessions in many countries. The current shock is three times larger in absolute terms, while modern economies' dependence on energy has not fundamentally decreased.

2. Price Timeline: From Outbreak to Present

Early March 2026 (Conflict Onset): Following the US-Israel strikes on Iran, WTI futures surged 24.6% in a single day to $113, with Brent climbing to near $114. According to a Fortune magazine report, Dow Jones futures crashed over 1,000 points on the same day.

March to April Peak Phase: As the situation escalated further, IEA data shows that Brent spot prices hit a historic high of $138 per barrel on April 7, with the monthly average for April reaching $117/barrel. Asian market middle distillate prices briefly broke above $290/barrel during this period, setting a new all-time high.

April to May Decline Phase: The signing of a two-week ceasefire agreement provided a noticeable reprieve for the market. An investigative report by CBS News noted that the US average retail gasoline price briefly rose to $4.06 per gallon, a recent peak, but eased slightly from the highs as diplomatic contacts unfolded.

Current Late May: Brent is trading in the roughly $103 to $105/barrel range. US Secretary of State Rubio publicly stated that there is a "fairly solid plan" on the negotiating table. The Washington Times reported that on Monday, oil prices briefly fell to $97.90, dropping below the $100 mark for the first time in nearly a month.

3. Diplomatic Progress ≠ Supply Normalization: The Most Overlooked Detail

Many market participants equate a "ceasefire" with "falling oil prices," which is a dangerous misjudgment.

According to a public statement by the head of ADNOC, even if the conflict stops immediately, the most optimistic estimate for the Strait of Hormuz to return to pre-war transit levels is not until Q1 or Q2 of 2027. The reason is that normalization is a phased physical process: upstream wells require safety checks before resuming production, port infrastructure needs damage assessments, tanker operators need to recalculate voyage risk premiums, and buyers and sellers need to rebuild supply chains.

ICIS analyst Kojo Orgle further points out that even if the Strait were physically reopened quickly, the actual tight supply conditions in the oil market are expected to persist for at least three months or longer after any resolution is reached. This implies limited downside for oil prices even after any peace deal is finalized.

4. Cross-Comparison of Latest Major Institution Forecasts

There is significant divergence among institutions' forecasts for the full-year 2026 average Brent price, with the core variable pointing to the Strait of Hormuz's reopening timeline:

EIA: The May Short-Term Energy Outlook predicts an average Brent price of about $106/barrel for May-June, falling to an average of $89/barrel in Q4 as Middle East production gradually recovers in the latter half of the year, resulting in a full-year average of around $96.

Goldman Sachs: In a research report covered by Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 full-year Brent average forecast to $85, characterizing the shock as "the largest supply shock ever." Subsequently, with signs of peace talks emerging, Goldman lowered its Q2 forecast to $90, maintained Q3 at $82, and set its Q4 baseline at $80.

Morgan Stanley: Its Q2 Brent forecast is as high as $110/barrel, the most hawkish among major institutions, believing supply recovery will be much slower than the market expects.

Macquarie Group: According to an analysis report by Seeking Alpha, Macquarie estimates that if the conflict extends to the end of Q2 with the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed, oil prices could climb to an extreme scenario of $200/barrel.

BMI (Fitch Solutions): Has raised its 2026 Brent average forecast by $8.5/barrel.

J.P. Morgan: In pre-war forecasts, J.P. Morgan had estimated a 2026 average Brent price of around $60, but this assessment was made before the conflict broke out and its current reference value has significantly diminished.

5. Scenario Analysis: Where Could Oil Prices Go?

Scenario 1: Peace Agreement Reached, Strait of Hormuz Gradually Reopens (Base Case)

This is the primary direction currently being priced by the market. If the US and Iran reach a phased agreement before June, Brent could gradually decline from its current level above $100 to the $80-$90 range in the latter half of 2026, potentially approaching the EIA's forecasted level of around $70 by year-end. However, as noted, full supply normalization will still take several quarters.

Scenario 2: Talks Break Down, Conflict Continues (Stress Case)

If the diplomatic process stalls again and the Strait of Hormuz blockade persists, oil prices could retest levels above $120, and Macquarie's extreme scenario of $200 would no longer be just a theoretical number. Lydia Boussour, Senior Economist at EY-Parthenon, stated in an interview with CBS News that even if the conflict ends, the "lagged effects" on supply chains will persist throughout 2026.

Scenario 3: Surprise OPEC+ Production Increase Provides Relief (Easing Case)

OPEC+ continues to discuss production increases. However, as Discovery Alert's analysis points out, several core OPEC+ member countries are themselves affected by the conflict, meaning increases in paper quotas do not automatically translate to actual delivered supply. Even so, record-high non-OPEC production from the US and Brazil remains a key variable that could moderate oil prices.

6. How Oil Price Turmoil Affects Cryptocurrency & Investor Strategy

The violent swings in crude oil prices are not just a topic for traditional energy investors.

Inflation & Macro Linkages: For every $10/barrel increase in oil prices, global CPI typically rises by about 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points. With oil prices still above $100, expectations for Fed rate cuts will continue to be suppressed, creating a macro headwind for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Risk-Off Sentiment & Capital Flows: During periods of conflict escalation, capital tends to flow towards gold and the US dollar. However, historical data shows that in certain regions (e.g., economies facing currency devaluation like Iran, or increased sanctions), on-chain transaction volumes for BTC and USDT often rise simultaneously, serving as tools for value storage and cross-border transfers.

Commodity Trading Opportunities: For investors looking to capture trading opportunities from oil price volatility, MEXC offers a diversified range of trading products, including oil-related contracts, combined with deep liquidity and leverage options up to 200x, providing flexible tools for professional traders.

7. Exclusive Insights from the MEXC Crypto Pulse Research Team

The core logic of the current oil market revolves around a timing mismatch that the market broadly underestimates: the diplomatic timeline and the supply recovery timeline are two fundamentally different curves. The market's rapid positive reaction to each piece of peace talk news implicitly assumes an error—that the oil price risk will dissipate the day an agreement is signed.

In our view, oil trading in the second half of 2026 will exhibit a unique pattern: the price range will generally shift lower (falling from above $110 to the $80-$90 range), but volatility will not narrow correspondingly. Each round of progress or breakdown in talks will trigger daily swings of several dollars or even over a dozen dollars. This "lower price, high volatility" environment is a trap for trend-following position traders but a window of opportunity for short-term traders who can accurately time event-driven moves.

Another side to watch: High oil prices are systematically improving the drilling economics of US non-OPEC regions, particularly the Permian Basin. US crude production could hit new highs in the second half of 2026. If Middle Eastern supply gradually recovers in 2027, the market will then face dual incremental supply pressure from high US output and resurgent Middle Eastern production, leading to a price correction that could be far more severe than currently anticipated.

FAQ

Q: How significant is the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure on global oil prices?

A: The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical crude oil transportation waterway. In normal times, about 20 million barrels of crude oil and LNG pass through daily, accounting for roughly 20% of global energy supply. This conflict has caused a supply disruption of approximately 14 million bpd, directly pushing Brent crude prices from below $80 to a peak of $138—the largest single supply shock in modern oil market history.

Q: Will current oil prices continue to rise?

A: This is highly dependent on the progress of peace talks. In the base case scenario, with the Strait of Hormuz gradually resuming transit in the latter half of the year, Brent could fall from its current level around $100 to the $80-$90 range. However, if talks collapse, an extreme scenario could see prices retest levels above $120 or even higher. Institutional forecasts vary widely, requiring continuous monitoring of diplomatic developments.

Q: Can OPEC+ production increases alleviate the supply shortage?

A: Theoretically yes, but the actual effect is limited. Several core OPEC+ producing countries are themselves affected by the conflict, so paper production increase quotas cannot immediately translate into actual deliveries. Production growth from non-OPEC regions like the US and Brazil offers more tangible relief but is still insufficient in scale to fill the approximate 14 million bpd supply gap from the Middle East.

Q: What impact will the Iran conflict have on the cryptocurrency market?

A: The indirect impact is primarily transmitted through two pathways. First, the macro path: high oil prices fuel inflation, suppressing central bank rate cut expectations and creating overall pressure on risk assets. Second, the demand path: in economies facing sanctions or significant currency devaluation, the usage of BTC and USDT as alternative financial tools typically increases—a pattern repeatedly verified by historical data.

Q: How can ordinary investors participate in oil-related trading?

A: Investors can gain exposure to oil price movements through various channels, including oil futures, ETFs, and trading oil-related contracts or digital assets with energy price correlations on platforms like MEXC. Please note that commodity trading carries high risk. It is recommended to fully understand leverage risks and operate cautiously.

Q: What is the reasonable expected range for oil prices in 2026?

A: Based on the mid-points of various institutional forecasts, the full-year average Brent price for 2026 could be between $80 and $96 per barrel. This is higher than the pre-conflict level of $60-$65 but lower than during the peak of the crisis. Uncertainty remains extremely high, with the main variables being the actual timeline for the Strait of Hormuz reopening and the outcome of US-Iran negotiations.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation of any financial product. Trading in crude oil and related assets involves high market risk, and prices can fluctuate dramatically due to unforeseen factors such as geopolitical events and policy changes. Readers should fully assess their own risk tolerance and consult professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.