多头逼近「天花板」：比特币突破8万关口，直逼8.5万美元关键阻力

Original Author: Glassnode

Original Translation: Aididiao JP, Foresight News

Bitcoin has broken through $80,000 and is pushing towards key resistance near $85,000, with bulls in control. ETF demand is recovering, short positions persist, but overhead supply may limit further upside unless spot buying momentum strengthens further.

Summary

• Bitcoin has broken through the Real Market Mean of $78,200 and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of $79,100. Holding above these levels suggests that the recent deep-value phase was brief. The next key resistance is at $85,200.
• The 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of Net Realized Profit/Loss has turned positive at 0.003% of market cap, while Long-Term Holder profit-taking has risen to about $180 million per day, still well below cycle peaks of over $1 billion daily.
• Realized losses remain elevated at $479 million per day, 140% above the cycle baseline. A sustained compression below $200 million per day is needed to confirm a more durable recovery pattern.
• Glassnode's neutral strategy re-entered the market after Bitcoin reclaimed ~$76,000, capturing recent gains while maintaining a focus on downside protection.
• US spot ETF flows have turned positive on a 30-day basis, indicating a recovery in institutional demand, supporting the price return to the $80,000 region.
• Despite the rally, perpetual futures funding rates remain predominantly negative, suggesting persistent short positioning that could fuel further upside via a short squeeze.
• Front-end implied volatility has re-priced upwards after the breakout, while realized volatility lags behind, and a positive volatility risk premium is being rebuilt.
• Options skew is compressing towards neutral, indicating reduced demand for downside hedging and a shift towards more balanced positioning.
• A large cluster of short-term option hedging is concentrated near $82,000, increasing price sensitivity. Dealer hedging flows could amplify volatility while spot is in this range.

On-Chain Insights

Breaking Above Averages

Last week, this report noted that rejections at the Real Market Mean and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis confirmed short-term overhead resistance, while identifying the dense accumulation cluster between $65,000 and $70,000 as the foundation capable of supporting a rally to the $84,000 supply zone. This rally has now materialized: Bitcoin pushed to $81,000, breaking through the Real Market Mean of $78,200 and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of $79,100, simultaneously clearing the cost basis of all actively traded supply over the past 155 days and the average entry price of recent buyers.

If the price can sustain above these levels in the coming week, the deep-value phase stretching from early February 2026 will become one of the briefest such phases in Bitcoin's market history. Attention now turns to the next major resistance near $85,200, around the Active Realized Price, which tracks the cost basis of all non-dormant supply and represents the next structural hurdle the market must face.

Profitability Turns Positive

With the breakout above the Real Market Mean, the improved price structure is now reflected in profitability metrics. The 30-day SMA of Net Realized Profit/Loss (the difference between on-chain realized profits and losses divided by market cap) has turned positive, currently at 0.003% of market cap.

This metric, a broad indicator of whether spending investors are taking profits or losses overall, returning to positive territory after a prolonged period of loss dominance is a constructive signal. The indicator bottomed at -0.027% of market cap during the mid-February lows—a notable negative reading, but with limited depth compared to the extreme loss realization phases observed during the 2022-2023 bear market. In hindsight, this limited negative depth aligns with the historically brief duration of the recent deep-value phase mentioned above.

Long-Term Holders Begin to Act

As Net Realized Profit turns positive, the key question shifts to whether buyer liquidity can withstand the increasing wave of Long-Term Holder distribution. Realized profits from addresses held for over one year (14-day SMA) have risen to approximately $180 million per day following the recent rally, comparable to levels seen in September 2024 and December 2022.

This cohort has endured the entire recent bearish phase and now faces increasingly strong incentives to take profits as prices recover to more favorable levels. If the current expansion continues, this distribution pressure is likely to intensify. Importantly, this metric is still far from the cycle's early-peak conditions of over $1 billion daily, indicating that Long-Term Holder selling remains moderate rather than aggressive at this stage. Whether the market can absorb this gradually increasing supply while maintaining prices above the Real Market Mean will be the decisive test for the structural support of the current recovery.

Realized Losses Still Elevated

While Long-Term Holder profit-taking remains below concerning levels in the early stages of a potential regime shift, realized losses from the broader market pose a more direct drag on momentum. The 14-day SMA of total Realized Losses currently sits at $479 million per day, approximately 140% above the $200 million daily baseline observed during more stable periods of this cycle. This reflects investors' eagerness to exit with smaller losses as prices recover.

A sustained compression of this metric back below $200 million per day would serve as a strong on-chain confirmation that selling pressure is exhausted and the market is genuinely transitioning to a healthier demand environment. Until that threshold is reached, the dual pressure from Long-Term Holder profit-taking and marginal-loss distribution by recent top buyers could anchor the current rally, especially in the absence of a substantial catalyst for new buyer participation in the near term.

Off-Chain Insights

After recovering from lows around $66,000 and establishing a solid breakout above the ~$76,000 range, systematic strategies have begun re-introducing risk. Glassnode's neutral strategy (which manages exposure using off-chain market data) has re-entered allocation, participating in the recent rally towards the $80,000 region.

Designed with a focus on downside protection, this strategy typically lags during sharp rallies but seeks to avoid deeper drawdowns and re-enters after conditions improve. This recent shift reflects a more constructive market backdrop, with prices reclaiming key levels and directional momentum rebuilding.

ETF Demand Regains Momentum

Demand for US spot Bitcoin ETFs has seen a notable recovery, with the 30-day SMA of net inflows turning decisively positive after a prolonged period of outflows. This shift marks a clear inflection point in institutional appetite, following significant outflows during the late-2025 to early-2026 pullback.

The acceleration of recent inflows aligns closely with Bitcoin's recovery from lows around $66,000 back to the $80,000 region, suggesting a resurgence in conviction among traditional investors. If this trend continues, ETF demand could again serve as a structural tailwind, reinforcing spot market strength and supporting further upside.

Persistent Short Pressure

Despite the recovery from lows around $66,000 and the re-test of the $80,000 region, perpetual futures funding rates remain predominantly negative. This sustained negative funding indicates that short positioning continues to dominate, with traders willing to pay to maintain downside exposure despite the recent upward price action.

Historically, this scenario often occurs during phases of skepticism, where rallies are met with positioning reduction rather than aggressive long accumulation. The coexistence of negative funding rates and rising prices suggests the market may be "climbing a wall of worry," with potential for further upside if short positions continue to be squeezed.

Front-End Volatility Re-Prices After Local Lows

Implied volatility bottomed over the weekend, with levels across tenors reaching their lowest points since October 2025, just before the 10/10 event.

Since then, Bitcoin's breakout has brought volatility back into the market. The 1-week tenor has risen approximately 6 volatility points from its lows, driven by upside demand and position adjustments.

This move has been amplified by Gamma sellers rolling their exposure, buying back short-dated options and selling further out on the curve. Consequently, the front end has re-priced sharply, while longer tenors have only moved modestly, gaining 1 to 2 volatility points.

This reflects renewed demand for short-dated options, but not a broader shift in long-term volatility expectations.

Volatility Risk Premium Rebuilds as Implied Volatility Leads

Bitcoin's realized volatility continues to drift lower, with the 1-month RV currently at 35.38%, even as prices moved significantly higher over the past week.

This creates a clear divergence: implied volatility has re-priced faster than realized volatility following the breakout. The volatility risk premium has turned positive again, with the spread nearing 3 volatility points, reflecting the resurgence in short-dated option demand. This indicates that realized volatility has not kept pace with recent price action. Implied volatility is leading, driven by positioning and front-end demand, while realized volatility remains relatively contained.

This setup remains supportive of the market's upward move, but the widening spread suggests the market is beginning to price in more volatility ahead than what has materialized so far.

Skew Normalizes, Downside Demand Fades

Skew across tenors is moving back towards neutral, reflecting a clear shift in positioning. After a sustained period of elevated put option premiums, 25D skew is now compressing, though it remains in contango (put skew territory).

This move is most pronounced on the front end, where 1-week skew has now approached zero, as downside demand fades. Since this metric is calculated as put minus call, this decline indicates that the premium for puts relative to calls is eroding. Longer tenors are also declining, though more gradually, retaining put skew even after compression.

This suggests that protection is being unwound rather than added, particularly in the short term. Following the recent price breakout, traders are reducing hedges and shifting more towards directional exposure. Skew no longer indicates strong demand for downside protection.

Large Short-Dated Gamma Cluster Drives Spot Sensitivity

Gamma positioning shows a distinct concentration of short-dated Gamma near the $82,000 strike, with nearly $2 billion in exposure currently at the spot level.

Short-dated Gamma implies that dealers' positions force them to hedge in the direction of the price move—buying when prices rise, selling when they fall. This creates a feedback loop that can accelerate price action, which helps explain the recent push towards $83,000.

This effect is reinforced by strong call buying, which has accounted for approximately 40% of option flow over the past 24 hours, adding pressure into this zone.

With spot currently sitting right on top of this large short-dated Gamma cluster, the market has entered a high-sensitivity zone where small fluctuations can trigger outsized reactions. Prices are likely to remain highly reactive here, with the potential for sharp moves in either direction as hedging flows intensifies.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is showing early signs of a structural recovery, pushing towards overhead resistance near $85,000 while reclaiming key on-chain cost basis levels. Spot demand and ETF inflows are rebuilding, suggesting bulls remain in control, but the market is now approaching a critical ceiling where overhead supply may begin to re-emerge.

Simultaneously, derivatives positioning remains skewed towards shorts, creating conditions where further upside could be driven by short pressure. The options market is resetting, with short-dated Gamma near current price levels, increasing the potential for amplified volatility as prices test resistance.

In summary, the trend looks constructive and bullish momentum is intact, but the market is now entering a more reactive phase. Sustained resistance breaks, supported by continued spot demand and easing selling pressure, will be necessary to confirm a more durable upward continuation.