BIT 投研：美联储换帅，比特币迎来新的顺风期
- 核心观点：文章分析了美联储潜在领导层更替（Kevin Warsh接任）及政策转向预期，如何强化比特币作为“货币贬值对冲”的宏观叙事，同时指出了短期高通胀及缩表对风险资产的扰动。
- 关键要素：
- 美联储政策周期是比特币叙事演变的核心宏观背景：从Bernanke量化宽松提供叙事基础，到Yellen时期进入主流，再到Powell任期内经历高利率压力测试而生存。
- 2024年现货比特币ETF获批是关键转折点，标志着“货币贬值交易”正式进入机构主流叙事，巩固了比特币从边缘资产向宏观资产的转变。
- 潜在接任者Warsh的核心主张（缩小资产负债表、强调利率工具、反对CBDC）强化了“货币购买力下跌”的叙事，有利于固定供应的比特币。
- 短期宏观扰动显著：油价升至100美元以上，能源供给趋紧及AI投资需求可能推高通胀，市场预期从降息转向可能加息。
- 美国联邦债务已升至约39万亿美元，若缩表过快伴随财政持续发债，长期利率上升可能对风险资产形成压力。
The current market is undergoing a macro repricing phase driven by policy expectations. The leadership of the Federal Reserve may be facing a new round of transition. If Kevin Warsh takes over smoothly, he will bring new policy orientations regarding the interest rate path, the balance sheet, and the inflation framework. At the same time, the debt environment and monetary system, which have been continuously expanding for over a decade, are intensifying the market's reassessment of "monetary purchasing power."
Looking back at Bitcoin's development trajectory, its inception after the 2008 financial crisis highly overlaps with multiple rounds of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing. From the massive balance sheet expansion under Ben Bernanke, to the market skepticism during Janet Yellen's tenure, and the stress test of an interest rate environment above 5% under Jerome Powell, Bitcoin has continuously reshaped its market positioning across different policy phases. Notably, following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, the "currency debasement trade" has gradually entered the mainstream institutional narrative.
Against this backdrop, potential shifts in the Federal Reserve's policy direction are becoming a significant variable influencing the Bitcoin narrative.
Evolution of Monetary Cycles: From Quantitative Easing to Tightening, Bitcoin Completes a Narrative Reshaping
Over the past decade and more, the Federal Reserve's policy cycles have provided a continuously evolving macro backdrop for Bitcoin. The quantitative easing under Bernanke led the market to systematically focus on fiat currency expansion for the first time, laying the foundation for Bitcoin's narrative as a "fixed-supply asset." During Yellen's tenure, Bitcoin's price rose from about $300 to nearly $17,000, gradually entering the mainstream spotlight, though it was still widely regarded as a highly volatile speculative asset.
Entering Powell's term, Bitcoin experienced more complex cyclical tests. Early interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction caused its price to fall over 80% from its 2017 highs. Subsequently, during the pandemic, the Fed expanded its balance sheet by nearly $3 trillion within weeks, reinforcing the market's perception of "monetary expansion." In 2021–2022, after surging to $69,000, Bitcoin retreated by about 75%, showing it still retained risk asset characteristics.
However, the key change occurred in 2024: the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs allowed the "currency debasement trade" to be gradually embraced by institutions. Meanwhile, U.S. federal debt has climbed to approximately $39 trillion. Bitcoin has not exited the mainstream market view even amid a high-interest-rate environment, completing a stage transition from a fringe asset to a macro asset.
Policy Shifts and Uncertainty: Under the Warsh Path, Strengthening and Disrupting the Bitcoin Narrative
Under potential new policy frameworks, Warsh's core propositions include: shrinking the balance sheet, re-emphasizing the interest rate tool, and establishing a new inflation policy mechanism. In his hearing on April 21, 2026, he pointed out that the inflation of 2021–2022 was one of the biggest policy mistakes in the past 40 to 50 years, and that the cumulative 25%–35% price increase since 2020 continues to affect household living costs.
From Bitcoin's perspective, this judgment reinforces the "currency debasement narrative" to a certain extent. If the Fed acknowledges the long-term impact of past balance sheet expansion, the market will reassess the stability of the monetary system, which supports Bitcoin, an asset emphasizing fixed supply. At the same time, Warsh's clear opposition to central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) also weakens a potential competitive path previously seen as an institutional alternative to Bitcoin.
However, the short-term macro environment still presents significant disruptions. On one hand, oil prices have risen above $100, and tightening energy supply has shifted market expectations from the previously anticipated "three rate cuts within the year" towards factoring in the possibility of rate hikes. On the other hand, the energy demand driven by AI infrastructure investment may also push up inflation levels before a productivity dividend materializes. Indeed, internal models even suggest that a scenario where the CPI rises to 6% cannot be ruled out.
Furthermore, if balance sheet reduction proceeds too quickly against the backdrop of sustained U.S. fiscal bond issuance, long-term interest rates may rise, thereby putting pressure on risk assets. Conversely, if inflation is systematically underestimated, it could also undermine the Fed's institutional credibility.
Some of the above views are from BIT on Target, contact us to get the full BIT on Target report.
Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be made cautiously. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risk and uncertainty. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.
