BIT Research: Multiple Signals Simultaneously Turn Bullish – Has Bitcoin’s Repair Rally Already Begun?

As noted in our previous two reports, the Bitcoin bear market may be nearing its end. Currently, with the price reclaiming key technical levels, multiple indicators such as the trend model, the 21-week moving average, and on-chain capital flows are forming a convergence, gradually increasing market confidence in this assessment. Meanwhile, the $73,000 level has served as a crucial dividing line since March 2024 and remains the key threshold for confirming a trend reversal in this cycle.

From a price structure perspective, Bitcoin has reclaimed its position above the 21-week moving average, a metric of significant importance in the framework for distinguishing bull and bear markets. Additionally, both the monthly RSI and the weekly stochastic oscillator are within ranges historically associated with bottoming zones, further reinforcing the view that the market is transitioning from a cyclical bottom to a recovery phase. Although short-term volatility may still be influenced by macroeconomic factors, Bitcoin's price action is beginning to show structural characteristics that suggest a shift from a "bounce" to a "trend recovery."

Technical Signal Convergence: Key Moving Averages and Trend Model Point to a Recovery Phase

Currently, Bitcoin's price has re-established itself above the 21-week moving average. Historically, this signal has been considered an important confirmation for entering a new upward cycle. If the weekly close can consistently hold above this level, the market is likely to transition from a consolidation and recovery phase to a trend-based uptrend.

Historical backtesting shows that the 21-week moving average is not only effective in identifying trend reversals but also helped investors avoid significant drawdowns during the 2021/2022 bear market. In the current cycle, if the price confirms a stable hold in the $78,000–$79,000 range, this indicator may trigger another entry signal.

Concurrently, the trend model has turned bullish. Given Bitcoin's strong trend and high volatility characteristics, this trend has stronger conditions for persistence following several previous signal fluctuations. The simultaneous strengthening of multiple technical indicators across different timeframes makes the current market environment closely resemble key historical phases of recovery from a bottom.

Accelerating Capital Inflow Recovery: Multi-Channel Inflows Bolster Structural Market Improvements

As technical indicators strengthen, changes in capital flows are further reinforcing this trend. Since April, a combined inflow of approximately $18.7 billion from stablecoins, Bitcoin ETFs, futures leverage, and Strategy purchases has pushed total capital inflows to their highest level since July 2025.

On-chain data also shows that, following an earlier outflow of roughly $25 billion, market capital flows have begun to recover, and the pace of this recovery is significantly faster than the cycle seen in 2022. This suggests that the market structure is rebalancing more quickly after this correction.

Notably, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to raise funds via the STRC instrument and purchase Bitcoin. Its cumulative fundraising this year has reached approximately $11 billion, providing steady buying support for the market. As long as the STRC spread remains within a reasonable range, this financing mechanism can operate sustainably, continuously translating into new demand. The recovery in capital inflows is no longer dependent on a single channel but stems from simultaneous improvements across multiple dimensions, reducing the probability of another sharp decline in Bitcoin and laying the groundwork for the price to advance towards a target range of $88,000.

Overall, Bitcoin is currently in a critical phase of transition from "technical repair" to "capital-driven recovery." Multiple indicators, including the trend model, the 21-week moving average, the RSI, and on-chain capital flows, are converging. Historically, such signals have often corresponded to windows where the market moves from a cyclical bounce to a trend-based recovery. At the same time, the improvement in capital flows is accelerating and becoming more diverse, making the current market structure more robust than in previous cycles.

Nevertheless, macroeconomic variables could still cause periodic disruptions. For instance, uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy path or changes in the STRC spread could influence short-term momentum. Bitcoin is unlikely to experience a unilateral rapid surge; instead, it is more likely to grind higher amidst volatility. However, based on the current combination of technical and capital flow indicators, the market's direction is clearer than before, and a trend recovery is progressively unfolding.

Some of the above views are from BIT on Target. Contact us to obtain the full BIT on Target report.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.