Prediction markets price ~74% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in September
2026-08-17 21:27
Odaily News – Multiple prediction markets are converging on similar pricing for the Fed's September meeting outcome: approximately 74% probability of holding rates steady, roughly 25% probability of a 25 basis point hike, and nearly 1% probability of a cut.
Polymarket's related contract has seen trading volume of $33.9 million; Kalshi, an exchange regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), shows a 73.5% probability of holding steady, with bets totaling close to $10 million. Myriad, a prediction platform operated by Dastan, shows approximately 71% for that option.
The Fed's July meeting voted 9 to 3 to keep rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with 3 committee members supporting a hike. The FOMC is scheduled to meet on September 15-16, with the statement planned for release on September 16; a survey shows nearly 70% of economists expect rates to remain unchanged for the rest of 2026. (Decrypt)
Polymarket's related contract has seen trading volume of $33.9 million; Kalshi, an exchange regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), shows a 73.5% probability of holding steady, with bets totaling close to $10 million. Myriad, a prediction platform operated by Dastan, shows approximately 71% for that option.
The Fed's July meeting voted 9 to 3 to keep rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with 3 committee members supporting a hike. The FOMC is scheduled to meet on September 15-16, with the statement planned for release on September 16; a survey shows nearly 70% of economists expect rates to remain unchanged for the rest of 2026. (Decrypt)
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