三个月“入熊”概率67%？美股“双重背离”罕见同时出现

Odaily Odaily reports that multiple key indicators in the U.S. stock market have simultaneously shown rare divergences recently, prompting institutions to reassess market risks. On one hand, the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq have exhibited a clear divergence in their trends; on the other hand, the semiconductor sector continues to hit new highs, while the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks, which have long led the market's rise, are clearly lagging behind. Multiple institutions believe that both sets of signals have appeared near historically significant tops in the past, warranting investor attention.

However, analysts also emphasize that the current market environment does not entirely replicate 2021. At that time, the chip industry benefited from the post-pandemic recovery in demand for consumer electronics. In contrast, the current rally is primarily driven by artificial intelligence infrastructure construction, with high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and data center supply chain companies being the biggest beneficiaries. As capital expenditures continue to rise, the free cash flow of major tech companies is under pressure, and the market is beginning to focus more on whether AI investments will ultimately deliver returns. This is also a significant reason for the recent pressure on tech leaders. (Jin Shi)