Jefferies Warns: Legislative Uncertainty of the CLARITY Act May Trigger Crypto Market Volatility

According to a recent report from investment bank Jefferies, the U.S. Clarity Act, despite passing a bipartisan 15:9 vote in the Senate Banking Committee, still faces significant hurdles in its subsequent legislative process, with political uncertainty likely to exacerbate crypto market volatility in the coming weeks. The bill aims to clarify the regulatory boundary between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over digital assets and is considered a core legislative framework for U.S. crypto market structure. Jefferies noted that smooth passage would significantly boost institutional participation, while delays would prolong regulatory uncertainty.

Currently, Polymarket数据显示 the probability of the bill passing by the end of 2026 has dropped to 48%, a notable decline from 70% in mid-May, primarily due to disputes over ethics clauses, anti-money laundering reviews, and a tight Senate agenda. Analysts stated that Congress has only about 20 legislative days remaining before the August recess, needing to complete tasks including reconciling versions between the House and Senate, procedural votes, and submitting to the President for signature. If it fails to advance before the recess, it could be delayed until next year, or even further postponed due to changes in the election cycle.

Jefferies believes that if the bill is enacted, it would drive expansion in businesses such as tokenized assets, custody, staking, lending, and crypto ETFs, benefiting developments in markets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). However, delays could curb institutional investment in on-chain infrastructure and crypto-related IPOs.

Additionally, the market expects policy uncertainty to continue impacting the stock performance of crypto-related public companies such as Circle, Coinbase, and Bullish. Jefferies added that even as regulation gradually becomes clearer, intensifying stablecoin competition in the future could still become a long-term pressure source for companies like Circle. (CoinDesk)