Strategy's Valuation Drops Below Bitcoin Holdings, mNAV Dips Below 1 for the First Time, Attracting Market Attention

Odaily reported that Strategy's corporate valuation has fallen below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, with its Enterprise Value to Net Asset Value (mNAV) multiple dropping below 1 for the first time. This signals a shift in the market's valuation logic for the company.

Data shows that Strategy's current stock price is approximately $82, down about 85% from its all-time high in November 2024. Its enterprise value is around $50.4 billion, while the value of its Bitcoin holdings is approximately $51.1 billion (calculated at a Bitcoin price of around $60,000). This means the market currently values the entire company at less than the value of the Bitcoin it holds.

For a long time, the market valued Strategy significantly higher than its Bitcoin reserve, allowing the company to raise capital at a premium and continuously accumulate Bitcoin. This model was considered a cornerstone of Michael Saylor's capital strategy. However, with the mNAV now below 1, raising funds through new stock issuance could potentially dilute existing shareholders.

Analysis points out that this shift makes Strategy's valuation structure more akin to a "closed-end fund," similar to the discount trading status the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust experienced in different market cycles. Such structures typically lack effective arbitrage mechanisms, making it difficult for discounts or premiums to correct quickly.

However, unlike traditional closed-end funds, Strategy still possesses various capital tools, including debt financing, equity financing, cash flow from its software business, and capital structure restructuring measures. This theoretically provides it with a degree of flexibility to navigate market volatility. (CoinDesk)