Polymarket probability of "Fed hiking 25 bps in July" drops to 18%, with expectations of maintaining rates unchanged dominating

The PPP Prediction Market Tool monitors that the probability of the "Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points at the July FOMC meeting" event on Polymarket has dropped to 18.1%, while the probability of "maintaining rates unchanged" has risen to 81%. The total trading volume for this event has reached $21.74 million.

The market currently widely expects the Fed to remain on hold at the FOMC meeting scheduled for July 28-29. Although the U.S. CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year in May, and energy prices have surged driven by Middle East tensions, keeping inflationary pressures alive, after the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% at its June meeting, the market is more inclined to wait for more economic data before deciding on the subsequent policy path. The U.S. June CPI data, along with key economic indicators such as employment and wages, set to be released on July 14, will be important variables influencing the outcome of the July rate decision.

The Odaily Seer Channel continues to follow prediction markets, seeing change before it is priced in.