Federal Reserve's Hawkish Dot Plot Shocks Market: Gold V-Shaped Rebound, Bitcoin's Key Range at $64,000-$65,000

Odaily reports that CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin weakened rapidly after the Fed held interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% and released a relatively hawkish dot plot. It broke below the $64,000 mark, falling approximately 4% from its intraday high at one point.

This meeting marks the Fed's fourth consecutive pause, but the latest dot plot indicates a significant shift towards a hawkish policy path: several officials now expect a potential rate hike this year, further weakening the market's pricing of "rate cut expectations." Analysts believe this change is more influential than the rate decision itself, directly suppressing risk asset valuations.

Market data shows that Bitcoin initially surged to around $66,400 after the announcement, but then quickly reversed course downwards under heavy selling pressure, hitting a low of approximately $63,870. Trading volume increased significantly, indicating active selling pressure. The price is currently consolidating near the lower end of the $63,600–$64,000 range, with no significant inflows of bargain-buying capital so far.

In stark contrast is the performance of gold. Spot gold quickly recovered after dipping to around $4,220, reclaimed the $4,300 level, and is currently trading near $4,321, demonstrating strong defensive properties and capital absorption capacity. Even against the backdrop of easing geopolitical risks, safe-haven demand remains resilient.

Market participants point out that the core divergence in this reaction lies in the repricing of asset attributes: gold completed a rapid recovery under the same macro shock, while Bitcoin failed to reclaim the key $64,000 level, indicating that risk assets are more sensitive to "higher-for-longer" interest rates.

Overall, the market is transitioning from a phase where "loose expectations support risk assets" to one where "hawkish paths suppress valuations," with short-term risk appetite clearly cooling. The key observation point is whether Bitcoin can re-enter and stabilize above the $64,000–$65,000 range with increased volume; otherwise, it may continue its weak consolidation structure.