"1011 Insider Whale" Agent: Trump's "48-Hour Ultimatum" May Trigger Sharp Increase in Oil Market Volatility, Risk of Conflict Escalation Rises

Odaily reported that Garrett Jin, the agent for "1011 Insider Whale," posted on the X platform stating that Trump has issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, demanding the full restoration of passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The situation has clearly escalated. He summarized that this move will have three key impacts: First, the diplomatic buffer has been broken, potentially ending the previous low-key negotiation path between Iran and Japan regarding ship-by-ship passage. Second, the nature of the conflict is escalating; if strikes expand to civilian infrastructure such as power facilities, it will strengthen Iran's stance and increase the probability of a prolonged war. Third, oil market volatility will surge, and market mismatches will intensify. The crude oil volatility index (OVX) has risen to 93, while the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is around 24, with a ratio close to 4 times, indicating that oil market risks far exceed the pricing in the stock market. Overall, oil prices and market volatility may continue to rise, and expectations for the duration of the conflict are being extended.