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Analysis: On-chain indicators suggest BTC may be approaching a cycle bottom, with "profit/loss tokens" converging

2026-02-04 12:13

Odaily News: Glassnode data shows that approximately 11.1 million BTC are currently in a state of profit (i.e., purchase cost is lower than the current market price), while around 8.9 million BTC are in a state of loss. As the gap between the two continues to narrow, the BTC Supply in Profit vs Supply in Loss indicator is approaching a key convergence zone that has appeared multiple times in history. This metric is used to measure the number of wallets currently in a state of paper profit versus those in a state of loss. Historically, when these two gradually move towards balance, it has often corresponded to a phase of market bottoming. It is seen as a significant signal of market capitulation and a long-term accumulation opportunity. If the profit and loss supply further converges, it may indicate that the market is entering a historically common phase of cycle bottom formation. However, this still needs to be judged comprehensively alongside factors such as macro liquidity, derivatives structure, and market sentiment. (CoinDesk)

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