Analysis: Bitcoin negatively correlated with Japanese bond yields, potential BOJ intervention could trigger rebound

Odaily reported that Delphi Digital published an analysis stating, "Bitcoin price has stagnated while gold continues to rise. The reason may lie with Japanese government bonds. Typically, rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, putting pressure on gold. But when both gold and yields rise simultaneously, the market is essentially pricing in policy pressure and balance sheet fragility, not economic growth.

The yield on Japan's 10-year government bond is currently about 3.65 standard deviations above its long-term average. The Bank of Japan structurally holds long-term bonds and is deeply exposed to Japanese government bonds in terms of both assets and collateral.

Gold is absorbing this pressure, while Bitcoin shows a negative correlation with Japan's 10-year bond yields. Over a longer timeframe, Bitcoin has generally struggled as Japanese yields have risen. If the Bank of Japan intervenes to stabilize the bond market, the risk premium priced into gold could ease, and Bitcoin would also gain room for a rebound."