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Bitfinex Alpha | Fed continues to hike rates, but on-chain data suggests bottom may be near

Early calls for a pause in rate hikes are likely to be ignored following last week's 25 basis point hike. With inflation currently at 6.5%, we are still well above the Fed's 2% target.

In addition, employment is in high demand and job vacancies are constantly increasing. In fact, Friday's nonfarm payrolls numbers were so strong they caught economists off guard. For now, the Fed isn't going to stop tightening, but as we've said before, if there are meaningful changes in hiring and wage growth, so will interest rate policy.

Data from the housing market suggests that we have seen some softening in the economy. Residential construction is already falling as a share of GDP, as are the number of new building permits, and we think this will fall further in the coming months. But more work needs to be done before the inflation demon is defeated and interest rates can breathe.

In sharp contrast to this, Bitcoin indicators look bullish. Short and now even long-term holders have sold profitably over the past 90 days, with the market successfully absorbing any selling pressure. While this doesn't mean the market is back in bullish territory, it does indicate strength in the spot market, which usually only occurs in late bear markets and early bull markets.

Other technical indicators were also positive. Bitcoin's 90-day EMA was last moved when the price was lower and is now up around 20% over the past 30 days. Additionally, as discussed in last week's Bitfinex Alpha, the adjusted net spend output margin is now above 1, suggesting that net sales are profitable, while the realized profit-to-loss ratio (RPLR) is also Above zero, another measure of profitability. To put this into perspective, the last time RPLR was 0.2 was in 2019, when the price of Bitcoin had dropped to around $3,600, and then it went on to rise around 19 times, hitting an all-time high less than three years later in late 2021. This time, when Bitcoin was trading around $16,000 last November, the indicator was again around 0.18, its lowest level since 2011. If history repeats itself, it could rise sharply again. A 10x increase would take BTC to $160,000.

Bitcoin’s technical indicators are green even on longer time frames. The reserve-to-risk ratio for BTC, which perceives the conviction of HODLers, is low. The lower the ratio, the higher the belief. Likewise, the well-known market value realized value ratio has recovered, with market value now higher than realized value.

Such positive news comes against a backdrop of more criticism from other parts of the cryptocurrency world. Last week, a court-appointed “examiner” for bankrupt crypto lender Celsius revealed that her investigations revealed that the firm appeared to be behaving like a Ponzi scheme.

Meanwhile, Osprey Funds is suing Grayscale for allegedly misleading advertising, and Alameda Research is suing Voyager (both companies have also gone bankrupt) to repay loans it owes.

In our study section, we explain the role of the FOMC and quantitative easing and tightening, which is a good refresher on how the US central bank works.

https://blog.bitfinex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Bitfinex-Alpha-40.pdf

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Bitfinex, Keet, Synonym and Tether Pledge 5 Million Turkish Lira in Economic Aid for Turkey Earthquake Recovery

Bitfinex, Keet, Synonym and Tether join forces to express our sincerest condolences and sympathies to the people of Turkey in the wake of the devastating earthquake that hit the country. It is clear that the impact of this earthquake was both widespread and catastrophic. Our hearts are with the people of Turkey and our thoughts and prayers are with all those affected.

At times like these, and in the aftermath of this tragedy, it is absolutely imperative that we come together to support the citizens of the region.

Resources are needed at times like these, and we can only hope that our support will help in these efforts. We stand with Türkiye.

https://blog.bitfinex.com/announcements/bitfinex-keet-synonym-and-tether-pledge-5-million-try-for-turkiye-earthquake-recovery/

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Bitfinex CTO: "Cryptocurrency exchanges and policy makers should create a regulatory framework that protects all participants from market abuse."

According to Ardoino, there will be opportunities for abuse in such a young industry as cryptocurrency until there are clear rules and guidelines to prevent this from happening. There must be safeguards against asymmetric flows of information so that there can be true price discovery, he said. He explained: “I believe that cryptocurrency exchanges and policymakers should work together to create a regulatory framework that allows the industry to thrive while protecting all participants from market abuse. A cryptocurrency exchange at the forefront of technological innovation, Bitfinex's main goal has always been to provide a safe and transparent environment for traders. We will continue to maintain this mission."

https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-exchanges-tackle-insider-trading-after-recent-convictions

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Bitfinex Partners with OpenPayd to Offer British Pound and Euro Payments

Bitfinex has partnered with OpenPayd to provide fast, secure and low-cost payments in GBP and EUR.

All transactions utilizing OpenPayd are made via SEPA and if a user bank account is eligible for SEPA Instant it will be automatically selected.

https://support.bitfinex.com/hc/en-us/articles/4756026946969-Wire-deposit-and-withdrawal-with-OpenPayd-on-Bitfinex

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Bitfinex Lists Origin Protocol's Native Token $OGN

Bitfinex will list Origin Protocol native token OGN. Bitfinex plans to open OGN deposits around 14:00 UTC on February 10th, and will open USD and USDT trading pairs at 14:00 on February 13th.

Founded in 2017, Origin Protocol is a decentralized blockchain project that aims to bring the future 100 million users into the crypto space through blockchain-powered products and protocols. Its two main products are yield stablecoin Origin Dollar (OUSD) and NFT platform Origin Story. Origin Token (OGN) is the governance and value accrual token of the Origin Story platform. Last summer, Origin airdropped OGV tokens to OGN holders as the governance token for Origin Dollar.

Origin Story aims to enable decentralized commerce through NFT. Origin Story's full-featured platform—covering NFT mints, marketplaces, analytics, token gated access, and more—enables creators to launch and run NFT businesses without blockchain development knowledge.

https://blog.bitfinex.com/media-releases/bitfinex-to-list-origin-protocol-native-token-ogn/