Editor's Note: This article comes fromCointelegraph Chinese (ID: CointelegraphChina), Author: JOSEPH YOUNG, reprinted with authorization by Odaily.

Editor's Note: This article comes fromBTCCointelegraph Chinese (ID: CointelegraphChina)

Cointelegraph Chinese (ID: CointelegraphChina)

, Author: JOSEPH YOUNG, reprinted with authorization by Odaily.

Bitcoin price is showing weakness after another rejection at the $11,000 resistance. With bitcoin () Entering the fourth quarter, market sentiment remains generally cautious and neutral.Bitcoin could be at greater risk of a pullback in the fourth quarter due to a few key factors. For the past three years, September has closed in the red. The same is true for September 2020, showing that Bitcoin’s price direction is unclear.

Traders are generally cautious in the short term and optimistic in the medium to long term. technical analysts have

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The key price levels for BTC are $9,800, $10,700, and $11,800. Volatility is expected to be low as long as Bitcoin remains between $9,800-$10,700 or $10,700-$11,800. So, while traders are cautious about Bitcoin's near-term trends, many don't expect Bitcoin to drop significantly.

As a potential price area to watch, traders are considering a possible break below the $9,600 gap formed in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) bitcoin futures market when the price of bitcoin ends after the weekend or holiday break. The $9,600 gap has yet to be filled, and given that most CME gaps tend to be filled, this level remains a target.

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Bitcoin’s monthly candle close below $11,000 would confirm September as a red candle. In technical analysis, if a new candle closes lower than the previous candle's close, it is said to be "bearish engulfing."expressAdditionally, Bitcoin’s monthly close came after repeated rejections, as BTC posted four consecutive new lows on the daily chart since Aug. 17. A lower high pattern occurs when the most recent peak is lower than the previous peak. In this case, Bitcoin peaked at $12,468, $12,050, $11,179, and $10,950.

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whenbitcoin, this is likely to be a bull trap. Across the major exchanges, Bitcoin rallied as high as $10,950 but has been "bearing" resistance. The possibility of a bull trap is high as Bitcoin struggles to break above key resistance levels.

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-ByzGeneral（@ByzGeneral），when

It is almost a bull trap when it consolidates above a support level and continues to hold.

When Bitcoin suddenly drops, it usually plummets and doesn't give anyone a chance to get in.

September 29, 2020

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Bitcoin’s historical performance in Q4

Bitcoin’s historical performance suggests a downtrend, as over the past two consecutive quarters, BTC has lost 42.46% and 13.59%, respectively. Given Bitcoin’s tendency to underperform in the final quarters of the past two years, the chances of a slow fourth quarter remain high.

However, after the 2016 halving, Bitcoin had a good fourth quarter, growing from $613.98 to $998.33. Bitcoin is currently in a halving cycle and if it follows past trends, it could climb gradually over the next 12 months. During the 2016 halving cycle, it took Bitcoin 15 months to reach a peak of $20,000, which has been an all-time high.secondary titlean uncertain financial market

Over the past month, the U.S. stock market has continued to slump due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Fears of a second wave of infections have been exacerbated by a lack of economic stimulus and uncertainty about a vaccine. The economic stimulus package will ease the economic pressure and send direct checks to individuals, thereby improving the overall liquidity of the market.However, Bitcoin, gold, stocks and risk assets entered the fourth quarter without stimulus, with a spike in COVID-19 cases and a stalemate in Washington over stimulus due to the U.S. election in November. According to reports, House DemocratsCurrently preparing

A stimulus package of $2.4 trillion in direct payments. Whether the package will pass before the presidential election is uncertain.

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$25.8 billion. It was the biggest weekly outflow since June 2019, when trade war fears intensified. Analysts at Bank of America pointed to the lack of clear economic stimulus as a catalyst for capital outflows in a note, noting: “Given that the largest fiscal stimulus has passed and no clear macro measures are in place, stocks and credit In the next six months, it will be difficult for policies to catalyze a sharp rise in the stock market and credit.”

While the Bitcoin stock market has become less correlated and more correlated with gold, overall, Bitcoin is still influenced by the overall financial market sentiment. Denis Vinokourov, head of research at cryptocurrency exchange and brokerage Bequant, told Cointelegraph that macro and political developments have been driving cryptocurrencies:

“Macro and political developments have become an increasingly important factor driving all market sentiment, and digital assets are no exception. Uncertainty around the U.S. election is widely expected to cause a lot of volatility. Spillover risks are considered high, but Interestingly, the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum has remained stable despite subdued spot market price action.”secondary titleOn-chain metrics are bullish

Since June, on-chain metrics have consistently shown a bullish trend for Bitcoin. Various on-chain metrics (including whale activity, holding activity, address activity, hashrate, and dormant supply) suggest that Bitcoin is in a healthy accumulation phase.

For example, Glassnode CTO Rafael Schultze-KraftCitedThe "Bitcoin short-term holders MVRV" indicator to show that Bitcoin is at a pivotal point. The on-chain indicator, when it hits 1, indicates a trend reversal, he said. The last time it was at 1 was in March when Bitcoin bounced back from a sharp drop to $3,600. Kraft said: