ETH fell yesterday, and the coins in the entire DeFi ecosystem did not drop unexpectedly. Many coins fell by more than 15% or even 20%. There is always such an argument in the field of digital currency, that rising is justice, and falling is a scam.

It is not the main content of today about the decline of various currencies and the reasons for the decline after the fact. In the process of falling yesterday, I saw a special situation, that is, when the hundred coins fell, one coin actually rose a bit. I laughed. This is almost within my logic, because the entire TronDeFi, that is, The secret of TRON ecology lies in the sun (SUN).

Structure of this article:

Structure of this article:

• The strange trend of sun yesterday

• TRON DeFi Ecological Decryption: The Core Position of SUN

• Calculation of funds for SUN pulling offers: the director's 100-fold leverage

• The Point Risk of Tron Trx

• secondary title

The strange trend of SUN currency yesterday

Because of the relatively high popularity of SUN recently, this signal came into my eyes at the first time, so I shipped it, because human beings are very weak in predicting the short-term market, which is common sense. So yesterday when the price was higher than 23 US dollars, I made a decisive move at that time. Of course, the subsequent trend is beneficial to my bearishness.

1. Why did SUN come up with a sun line in such a falling market?

2. Why do you not sell short when you are bearish?

Of course, it is not because it is called the sun, so it has a positive line.

secondary title

TRON DeFi Ecological Decryption: The Core Position of SUN

Perceptual analysis:

JUSTIN SUN's name is two coins, JST and SUN. The circulation of SUN coins is 19,900,730. The good name is Sun Yuchen's surname, and the number is Sun Yuchen's birthday. It seems that the coin with the surname on it will not fall into the grave of the ancestors.

Rational analysis:

SUN’s official website has various combinations of JST, USDJ, JST, and TRX pledged, and the APY (annualized yield) ranges from 70% to 700% (it has been getting lower and lower in the past three days, and now it is less than 600), This rate of return is much higher than the liquidity mining (uni mining) of Uniswap, the leading DEX on Ethereum ETH, which locks up liquidity and keeps you from running or selling.

One sun locks the liquidity of all these coins.

In other words, if the rate of return continues to remain high, many retail investors who do not understand the accounting will lock up funds. How much money is coming in now? The following section conducts specific calculations. Calculate a few things: how much is a sun lock, and the cost of a sun pull.

Fund accounting for SUN pulling offers

image description

The picture above is from the official website of SUN (the time is 3:15 pm on September 22, 2020)

The four pools look at the number of wave fields:

The first three pools: 1.16 billion + 950 million + 2.64 billion = 4.75 billion

The fourth pool: 3.60 billion

Appears to be locked in total: 8.35 billion Trx

8.35 billion x TRON price ($0.025) = $209 million

The actual designed amount is (because the first three pools are 1:1 pledged trx and another currency):

(4.75 billion x 2 + 3.6 billion) x TRON price ($0.025) = $328 million

So is that a big number?

It depends on the circulation and market value of Trx itself.

Moreover, it is not the 200 million US dollars that are locked in, because if the pool itself is observed every day, the increase is not too much. Observation, it has fallen by about 10%, and many people bought other currencies exchanged by TRON, which can be calculated by Trx), which means that the cost has increased by about 10%, or a loss of 10% has occurred. Take 90% = 364 million US dollars. This may be the real money. Calculated by mouth, the difference between the upper and lower sums of money is about 36 million US dollars.

Where did more than 30 million US dollars go in three days?

Isn't the market down? This means that the market value has shrunk. Of course, you can also think in a conspiracy theory that you locked up the director and sold it at the same time—the money went into the director’s pocket. Of course, it can’t be counted that way. I will analyze it below, please follow the logic.

The figure above is the data of Feixiaohao, which shows that the circulation is 71.66 billion. If you check it in other places, it will be more than 70 billion. You don’t need to be accurate to a few decimal places here, just look at it roughly.

The locked TRON and other related TRON coins and money, such as JST, TRX, TRC20’s USDT, SUN, of course, you can also use the 8.35 billion TRX actually locked in these pools as an estimate, which is 83.5 /716=11.66%. That is to say, about 12% of the TRX circulation is all locked in.

And what is the market value of sun?

image description

https://sun.io/docs/sun_whitepaper_cn.pdf

• Genesis mining for two weeks: 1.86 million

• Official mining (11pm on September 16th) to today (September 22nd) for a total of 6 days, that is, a total of 11:00 tonight will be dug out at this stage: (49,000 + 39,000 + 29,000 +10,000)*6=762,000

Even counting 760,000, 76+186=2.622 million is about 2.6 million, a sun is 20 dollars, and 52 million dollars-this plate is currently tens of millions.

Then take one-tenth of the market value of SUN to pull SUN, for example, 5 million US dollars, and basically can support it, no, take out 10 million US dollars (20%) to pull SUN (the logic of smashing is the same) ), this tens of millions of dollars will drive the coins in the entire TRON ecosystem to be pledged for mining, and then TRX, JST, SUN, etc. will all lock up liquidity and come in for mining. You can see the market value of TRON, JST, and SUN, The market value of TRON is close to 1.8 billion U.S. dollars in the above figure. Use 10 million U.S. dollars to drag a 1.8 billion U.S. dollar away, and other coins will be pulled together. One hundred times leverage, two hundred times leverage.

secondary title

The Point Risk of Tron Trx

secondary title

The Sun Also Rises or For Whom the Bell Tolls?

Since the main title of the article is the title of Hemingway's book, it is better to use the title of Hemingway's book as the last subtitle. Forming a secret echo, as if the wheel of fate is slowly running over.

Do you understand? Although the estimates in the article are not rigorous enough and the data are not precise, they do not affect the conclusion.

It’s hard to say that you go in when you see a high rate of return, and then come out feeling that you have made money. If you are a long-term holder of Trx, this is not a big problem. If you see a pool with a high rate of return, you can Spending money to buy Trx coins to get in, this investment does not seem very stable.

There is another situation that is more common:

Spend money to get in, and then accidentally get caught or make money, and slowly fall in love with SUN and Trx, thinking that this is the future and belief, and speculators become currency holders—once such a situation happens, the director will Will show a satisfied smile across the screen.

This smile is not evil, because it is all an overt conspiracy, and the information is open and transparent. I've laid out the layout and waited for you to come, will you come?

Disclaimer: This article has not cooperated with any team.