Editor's Note: This article comes fromDigital Asset Research Institute CIDA (ID: gh_cbfb4ac358dc), Author: Zhu Jiaming, published with authorization.

Editor's Note: This article comes from

Digital Asset Research Institute CIDA (ID: gh_cbfb4ac358dc)

, Author: Zhu Jiaming, published with authorization.

The time for the author to complete this article "How the COVID-19 Pandemic Changes Social Cost Structure and Concepts" is from the end of June to the beginning of July. In view of the relevant agreement with "21st Century", the publication of the magazine's website has priority. Now, this official account has been authorized by "21st Century" and the author to publish this article. Although, two months have passed, and even though the global new crown epidemic has spread and evolved on a larger scale, the issues raised and elaborated by the author in this article still have strong practical significance. It is especially recommended to readers who continue to pay attention to the impact of the new coronavirus and other viruses on humans.

One by one editor 2020.8.26

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Image courtesy of Twenty-First Century Magazine

In areas where economic thinking is primarily market-based, the sanctity is removed from life, because there is nothing sacred about what has a price tag on it.

- EF Schumacher, Small Is Beautiful: Economics as if People Mattered

June 29, 2020, is not only a symbolic day since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19, new crown pneumonia), but also an important day in the history of human epidemics: According to Johns Hopkins University ( According to real-time statistics released by Johns Hopkins University, as of around 6:00 on June 29, Beijing time, the cumulative number of confirmed cases worldwide has exceeded 10 million, reaching 10,070,339; the cumulative number of deaths has exceeded 500,000, reaching 500,306. Almost no country in the world has been spared. This day is less than 170 days from January 12, 2020, when the World Health Organization (WHO) named "2019-nCoV" (new coronavirus) [1]. If we take the accumulative total of 1 million confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the world on April 3 as a frame of reference, it will take less than three months to exceed 10 million by June 28. Among them, it took only eight days to go from 6 million to 7 million to 8 million cases, and only six days to go from 9 million to 10 million cases. World health experts believe that this is a continuation of the initial outbreak and is still in its first wave. However, around the world, people are already talking about a second wave of the epidemic.

The COVID-19 epidemic not only harms human health and lives, but also breaks the balance of the world economy and international relations system, thereby changing people's work, employment, life, and even thinking patterns. This article discusses how the COVID-19 epidemic has changed the concept and structure of social costs, and then puts forward some thoughts with long-term significance.

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Viruses: the microscopic basis of human survival and development

Traditional economics includes Microeconomics, which is defined as the discipline of economics that deals with the economic behavior of individual producers, consumers, and a single market. The "micro" of microeconomics has nothing to do with the "micro" of modern physics and biology.

Not long after the new year in 2020, the pace of life of people around the world was paused by the new crown virus from the microcosm, which effectively stirred and changed the macrocosm. Now people have to re-examine a micro-basic problem of cognition of human survival and development. As an empirical science, economics needs to break through the microcosmic thinking of social sciences, not to regard microcosm as an abstract concept for observing the world, but as a starting point for insight and measurement of the real world.

According to modern physics, the microcosm generally refers to the material system measured in nanometers, whose linear dimension is less than 10-9 meters. In the microscopic world, its elementary particles include atoms, electrons, nuclei, protons, neutrons, and quarks. Viruses undoubtedly belong to the microcosm. For example, the diameter of hepatitis B virus is 42 nanometers, that of bacteriophage virus is 68 nanometers, that of influenza A virus is 80 nanometers, that of SARS virus is 90 nanometers, and that of new coronavirus is 90 nanometers. Humans' direct observation and understanding of the microscopic world requires electron microscopes and scanning microscopes. The resolution limit of the electron microscope is far beyond that of the optical microscope. It can achieve a maximum magnification of 3 million times. It can distinguish tiny objects such as viruses, mitochondria, and DNA, and has functions such as image acquisition, data processing, and data storage. The invention of the scanning microscope has promoted the birth of the discipline of nanotechnology with the research object at the scale of 0.1 nanometers to 100 nanometers.

Viruses mainly exist in plants, animals and bacteria in nature. Plant viruses are parasitic in plant somatic cells, animal viruses are parasitic in animal cells, and bacterial viruses are parasitic in bacteria (ie, phages). The main differences between viruses and animals and plants are: (1) Different structures. Animals and plants have cell membranes and nuclear membranes, but viruses do not have similar structures; animals and plants have various organelles, but viruses do not, and the virus capsid only has genetic material. (2) The ingredients are different. Animals and plants contain many types of components such as nucleic acid, protein, lipid, water, carbohydrates, inorganic salts, etc. Viruses only contain nucleic acid, protein, lipid and sugar. (3) The copying method is different. Animals and plants have their own enzyme systems for DNA replication and cell division, while viruses need the host's enzyme and translation systems to replicate and multiply. (4) Energy metabolism is different. Animals and plants have an energy metabolism system that generates ATP (adenosine triphosphate) in the mitochondria, and viruses do not have their own energy metabolism.

Viruses are the most numerous living entities on Earth. First, how many types of viruses are there? Assuming that each of the 62,305 known vertebrate species carries 58 viruses, the number of unknown viruses rises to 3,613,690, more than three times the million estimated by epidemiologist Stephen Morse. many. Viruses rise to more than 100 million when one considers the roughly 1.74 million currently known species of vertebrates, invertebrates, plants, mosses, mushrooms, and brown algae, not counting bacteria, archaea, and other simple species. Viruses in cellular organisms. If you also consider that there are 1031 kinds of virus particles (mainly bacteriophages) in the ocean, the number will increase significantly. Second, how many viruses are there? Scientists deduce by detecting virus DNA that the total number of viruses on the earth is about 1031. This number is about 10 million times the total number of stars in the entire universe. If each virus is connected one by one, the resulting chain of viruses will span the moon, the sun, the Proxima Centauri, the edge of the Milky Way, and the Andromeda galaxy, extending to 200 million light-years away . If RNA viruses are added (influenza virus is a typical representative), then the total number of viruses on the earth may be 1031 plus 1031, and the resulting virus chain will be as long as 400 million light years [3]. Not only that, but viruses are ubiquitous, accompanying every ecosystem on Earth and invading every living organism. Viruses can travel across all continents of the earth, trillions of viruses fall from the sky every day, and there are as many as 800 million viruses per square meter on the earth.

Regarding the history of viruses, scientists infer that they are almost synchronized with life on earth. It is possible that viruses existed at the same time as the first cells evolved on Earth four billion years ago. Viruses do not form fossils, and there is no reference to estimate when they emerged. There are three types of origin theories of viruses: the theory of primitive biological descendants, the theory of degeneration, and the theory of co-evolution of viruses and cells. Regardless of the theory of origin, the differentiation of life in the initial stage of the earth eventually developed in two completely different directions: one direction is the evolution from cells to living organisms; the other direction is viruses, which maintain a simple structure and use the substances in the host cells And energy, according to the genetic information contained in its own nucleic acid, copy, transcribe and translate to produce a new generation of viruses like it.

American biologist Robert H. Whittaker proposed the theory of the five kingdoms of biology, namely: prokaryotes (Monera), protista (Protista), plants (Plantae), fungi (Fungi) and animals (Animalia). The Five Kingdoms system arranges life in three levels of increasing complexity: prokaryotic unicellular (Kingdom Prokaryotes); eukaryotic unicellular (Kingdom Protists); and eukaryotic multicellular (Kingdom Plants, Fungi, and Animalia). Viruses are parasitic organic species between living and non-living bodies. They are neither living things nor non-living things. They are not included in the Five Realms at present. However, without viruses, it is impossible to form a microbial system, and without a microbial system, there is no five kingdoms of biology proposed by Weitech. The specific chemical makeup of viruses (nucleic acids, proteins, lipids, and sugars) renders their functions irreplaceable. Therefore, human beings depend on the system of the five biological realms, and the microscopic basis supporting the system of the five biological realms is microorganisms and viruses. The evolution of viruses, their relationship with the biological world and human beings has finally become a prerequisite for the human life group, and its status is absolutely no less than that of air, water, sunlight and land.

In the process of human formation and evolution, the ultimate microscopic status of viruses has been formed. Assuming that human beings live on a virus-free earth is just a bias of anthropocentrism. Because the earth has its own life phenomena, there are viruses. Borrowing the term "embedding theory", it can be said that humans later "embedded" into systems that already existed in viruses, microorganisms, and even the five realms of life. Therefore, the virus system has constituted the real micro-foundation of the real economy. It can even be said that without an overall understanding of viruses, it is impossible to understand the evolution of the human living environment in the future.

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Viruses affect the basic model of human economic life

In fact, the human body itself also stores a huge amount of viruses. An ordinary healthy human body contains about 3×1012 viruses. If the viruses from all the people in the world are gathered together, it can fill about ten crude oil barrels (about 159 liters in one barrel). If a person gets the flu, about 10,000 new flu viruses are produced for each infected cell in the airways. In a few days, the number of flu viruses produced in the body will be as high as 100 trillion. This number is more than 10,000 times the sum of all human beings on the earth [4].

Once the virus leaves the host cell, it becomes a chemical substance without any life activities and cannot reproduce itself independently. Therefore, the impact of viruses on humans is mainly based on plants, animals and bacteria. There are many types of pathogens that cause infectious diseases, including bacteria, viruses, rickettsia, parasites, fungi and other microorganisms, as well as microbial recombinants (hybrids or mutants). As far as plant virus diseases are concerned, while damaging the plant system itself, it can also be transmitted to humans through plants. So far, the human immune system is unprepared for drug-resistant diseases that are transmitted from plants to humans. As for animal viruses, they are parasitic in humans and animals, causing diseases in humans and animals. The replication of animal viruses is similar to the replication of phages, including five basic stages of adsorption, injection, replication, assembly, and release, but some details are different.

The animal hosts of the virus almost include birds, animals, livestock, aquatic products, parrots, bats, other birds, pigs, horses, cattle, sheep, household pets, fish, and wild animals. Wild animals contain a large number of viruses accumulated over millions of years, and humans have almost never been exposed to them, so they are a greater threat. There is a fairly stable transmission relationship between viruses in nature, animals and humans (Figure 1):

Data source: drawn by the author

Further analysis shows that the number of viruses is not only absolutely large, but also ubiquitous. From an epidemiological point of view, the spread of the virus among the population can be divided into "vertical transmission" and "horizontal transmission". The so-called "vertical transmission" refers to the infection caused by the virus existing in the mother's body passing from parent to offspring through the placenta or birth canal; as for "horizontal transmission", it refers to the transmission of the virus among different individuals in the population. Among them, the latter is almost inseparable from people's daily life habits. The basic transmission modes include: (1) "person-to-person" mode. It is mainly transmitted by direct contact and air, and by droplets of talking and sneezing in the air. The transmission mode of SARS virus is droplet transmission or contact with respiratory secretions of patients; hepatitis A and E are mainly transmitted through diet. (2) "Things to people" mode. People become infected with the virus after coming into contact with contaminated items. Door handles, elevator buttons and related facilities in public places that are frequently touched on a daily basis are common virus parasites. (3) Central air-conditioning spreads. (4) Sewer and excretory vessel models, including aerosol transmission. (5) Transmission through large areas of exposed and damaged skin.

In short, viruses are ubiquitous and ever-present in human transmission, hiding below people's sensory thresholds, and people feel uneasy because the line between safe and dangerous is blurred. Recently, poultry farms and pig factories all over the world, and even the world's largest potato chip factory may have outbreaks, which means that the new crown virus has penetrated deep into the kitchen and dining table of modern society, that is, the deep structure of people's daily life.

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Viral Spillovers and Historical Transformations

Through comprehensive research on ancient DNA research, zooarchaeology, and biogeography, information on when and where various animals were actually domesticated has gradually become clear. The scientific community has discovered that many superbugs existed in ancient times before many animals were domesticated. in wild animals in nature. For example, the Mycobacterium tuberculosis that causes tuberculosis is nearly 70,000 years old. Human ancestors lived by hunting and gathering, drinking blood like hair, and they were probably carriers of superbugs. In the Paleolithic Age, the population scale and diffusion space were limited, and there were no domesticated animals that provided a breeding ground for the super-evolution of germs, nor did there exist factors for cross-infection between water and soil due to settlement. However, viruses have integrated and changed human life and activities. In recent years, the scientific community has screened nearly 3,000 remains from hunter-gatherers to the earliest farmers from multiple sites at the turn of the Paleolithic and Neolithic ages, from Russia to Switzerland, and extracted eight species of The earliest Salmonella [5]. In addition, the tuberculosis DNA extracted from the mummies of Peruvian Indians also has a high similarity with the pathogen (Mycobacterium bovidae) that is widely spread in wild animals.

From 10,000 to 12,000 years ago, ancient humans ended their wandering hunting and gathering life, embarked on the road of animal husbandry, and started an agricultural and animal husbandry society. Wild animals were continuously domesticated by humans, which not only changed the position of humans in the biological chain At the same time, it gradually affects the environment on which organisms depend for survival. During this process, some epidemic bacteria were produced in domesticated animals, and cross-infection between humans and domesticated animals continued, paving the way for the emergence of superbugs [6].

With the increase of research achievements in molecular genetics, paleopathology, epidemiology and other fields, molecular biology has opened up a new way to study the history of human diseases. According to increasing evidence, biologists have found that in the branching system of many pathogenic bacteria, there is a relationship with some livestock pathogens; or, in other words, they have similarities in molecular genetics. Therefore, those animals domesticated by ancestors are likely to be the initiators of superbugs [7]. However, more evidence and tests are needed to determine the relationship between pathogens and domesticated and domesticated animals. However, it is indeed a historical fact that the evolution and spread of germs have directly and indirectly changed the human ecology and social structure. In this sense, human history without plagues is not complete history, or even severely missing history.

The Crusades from the eleventh to the thirteenth centuries, and the rise of the Mongol Empire from the thirteenth to the fifteenth centuries, respectively, from west to east, and then from east to west, completely opened up the Eurasian continent. After that, the New World appeared, Ferdinand Magellan sailed around the world, and the international trade network was established, eventually forming a huge breeding ground for germs. From 1347 to 1353, the "Black Death" plague that swept across Europe resulted in 25 million deaths, accounting for one-third of the total European population at that time. The plague was caused by the Yersinia pestis bacillus whose hosts were rodents and fleas. The Black Death originated in Venice, an important hub of global navigation and trade. In Europe in the late eighteenth century, the epidemic of smallpox led to the death of 150 million people, and the social factors that aggravated the epidemic of smallpox were population movements brought about by wars. In the more than two hundred years since the nineteenth century, no matter where in the world, the epidemic caused by any virus began to spread internationally to varying degrees. The so-called Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 originated from an influenza virus that was later named "H1N1". With a world population of around 1.7 billion at the time, the flu infected 1 billion people and killed some 40 million, more deaths than soldiers and civilians from World War I combined. The influenza pandemic broke out in the United States, causing worldwide infection through the war. Countless young people died, which seriously affected young and middle-aged people to recruit into the army, and indirectly led to the early end of World War I at the end of 1918. The most typical disease in the late twentieth century is AIDS (AIDS), which is caused by an HIV virus that can attack and destroy the human immune system. In 1981, the first cases occurred in Central America. In 1982, the disease was named "AIDS" and soon spread rapidly to every continent.

The following provides a comparison of the cycles of eight global epidemics from outbreaks to global pandemics from the second half of the 20th century to the first two decades of the 21st century (Table 1):

Data source: drawn by the author

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Human discovery of coronavirus can be traced back to 1937 when the virus was first isolated from chickens. Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses. Before this coronavirus, six species including SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV were known. Coronaviruses only infect vertebrates, such as humans, mice, pigs, cats, dogs, chickens, cattle, and poultry [9]. Although people have only known about the new coronavirus for six months, they have to admit that it has the following characteristics: (1) It is extremely difficult to trace the source. Since the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak, the WHO and the governments of relevant countries have been looking for the source of the virus and the animal host, but so far no conclusion has been reached. Not only that, the new crown pneumonia was officially named "COVID-19", where "19" refers to 2019 when the coronavirus was discovered. This name was chosen to avoid associating the virus with regions, animals or individuals, to eliminate discrimination, and to avoid being politicized. (2) The new coronavirus is an RNA virus with strong variability, which can achieve super mutation. (3) The incubation period is long. According to observations, the general incubation period of the new coronavirus is 14 days, and individual cases can reach about 24 days or even longer. (4) The global spread of the epidemic presents an exponential growth model. The epidemic spread in the form of influenza and has the characteristics of exponential growth, that is, the growth rate of infected people is proportional to the number of infected people at a specific point in time, and the growth rate doubles. Taking the United States as an example, the curve of the epidemic growth in the United States seems to be flat at the beginning, but suddenly rises sharply, almost vertically, which is a typical epidemic. (5) Asymptomatic infections are not isolated and accidental. After the human body recovers from infection with the new coronavirus, the antibodies in the body may only last for two to three months. Especially for those with asymptomatic infection, the antibody maintenance time will be shorter. (6) Virus infection and transmission channels are extensive and difficult to prevent. (7) Viruses adapt to seasonal and temperature environmental changes. (8) Viruses span different areas of human existence around the world, breaking through the limits of latitude, longitude and altitude. (9) The virus completely damages the patient's body. Infections in the human body are not limited to the lungs, but can also invade the heart, blood vessels, kidneys, digestive tract, nervous system, and endothelial cells of a large number of different tissues. The new coronavirus is no longer a simple respiratory disease, but more of an extensive vascular disease [10]. (10) Has a relapse mechanism. The new coronavirus actually has the characteristics and functions of hepatitis B virus and HIV. Even if the host recovers from treatment, the virus may remain parasitic in the host for life. Therefore, the WHO stated that there is no evidence that antibodies produced after infection with the new coronavirus can protect the body from a second infection. (11) Patients tend to be younger. Recent clinical studies have found that the average age of patients infected with the new coronavirus is 55 years old, which is 5 years lower than the average age of 60 years old for initial infections. (12) The new coronavirus may overlap with other viruses. (13) THE HELD IMMUNITY ILLUSION. There is an ADE (antibody-dependent enhancement) effect in the coronavirus, and the antibodies of herd immunity cannot be immune to the mutated virus. It was found clinically that the positive rate of COVID-19 antibodies in Spain was only 5% [11]. Therefore, it is difficult to hope for herd immunity. (14) It is extremely difficult to develop vaccines and new drugs, and the development cycle is uncertain.

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Among the fourteen characteristics summarized above, the most important and controversial one is how to recognize the mutation ability and consequences of the new coronavirus. What is certain is that the new coronavirus has lightning-fast self-replication capabilities and unparalleled evolutionary speed. Before February 12, 2020, the evolutionary tree of the virus contained at least fifty-eight haplotypes, which can be divided into five groups. Virus mutation means that the virus reproduces more and more subtypes, and may even form recombination with other viruses, and mutate and evolve some new super viruses [12]. Recently, according to The Guardian (The Guardian), among the more than 5,000 samples extracted by researchers from all over the world, it was found that at least three new coronaviruses have been circulating in the world today; one accounted for more than 700 samples, and the other species only accounted for more than 30 copies. That is to say, in addition to the one infected by the largest group, other types of new coronaviruses B and C with different strain structures were also detected [13]. After the outbreak was discovered again in Beijing on June 11, on June 18, China released the genome sequence data of the virus, indicating that these samples contained the D614G mutation, which was considered to be a branch of the European D614G strain. Chinese and foreign experts believe that the D614G mutation increases the infectivity of the new coronavirus [14]. A study by Northwestern University School of Medicine in Chicago found that multiple mutations occurred in the genome related to the coronavirus uploaded by scientists. At least four laboratory studies have shown that mutations make the virus more infectious [15]. What's more serious is that some patients may be infected by double new coronavirus variants at the same time. On March 24, the Icelandic media "The Reykjavík Grapevine" (The Reykjavík Grapevine) reported that a patient with new coronary pneumonia in Iceland was detected to be infected with two new coronaviruses at the same time, the second of which was the original new coronavirus This is the first time in Iceland that a patient with double infection with the new coronavirus has been found. Icelandic scientists have discovered forty virus variants in the country [16]. It is worth noting that British scholars pointed out that before the outbreak of the new crown virus in Asia, it is likely to have existed in different parts of the world, but it was in a "dormant" state, and it did not start to spread until the environment changed [17].

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The new coronavirus has lightning-fast self-replication capabilities and unparalleled evolutionary speed. (data picture)

During the "game" between human beings and the new coronavirus for about half a year, the new coronavirus showed three unprecedented "smart" characteristics: constantly changing its internal structure to adapt to its new host; the epidemic has strong rebound energy; avoiding the human immune system Fighting back, it's super contagious. Microscopically filming the process of the new coronavirus infecting healthy cells shows that the infected cells grow tentacle-like spikes called "filopodia", which are full of new coronavirus particles. The new coronavirus uses these filopodia to enter healthy cells and inject viral venom to change the internal mechanism of cells. Infected cells then become "viral replication machines" that continue to produce the building blocks of new viruses. For such a phenomenon, experts have to use literary language such as "cunning", "weird" and "evil" to describe it. In the history of the relationship between modern humans and virus epidemics, there has never been such a powerful all-round nanoscale opponent [18].

In terms of life costs, it includes the detection, diagnosis, treatment and direct death costs caused by the new coronavirus. According to the WHO, as of 21:01 on July 26, Beijing time, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia worldwide exceeded 16.24 million, reaching 16,245,736, and the cumulative number of deaths exceeded 649,000, reaching 649,276. In the long-term battle against viruses, human beings have evolved stronger and stronger immune systems, but a strong immune system will also attack humans themselves. Scientists have shown that the outbreak triggered changes in the human immune system. With COVID-19 becoming the number one killer of the elderly, life expectancy will decrease and overall healthcare spending will rise sharply.

In terms of social costs, in view of the exponential growth of the number of new coronary pneumonia infections and the continuous expansion of the death toll, in order to ensure that the medical system does not collapse, all parts of the world have used "isolation" methods such as suspension of work, production, school, and testing to resist the virus. Contain the virus invasion and spread, and implement various types and time scales of isolation, from the national level to the city and community level. A mobile world is fragmented and static, including schools, museums, dining and entertainment venues, and sports spaces, which are closed for large areas and for long periods of time. Human beings have to accept the reality of "closing the country", "closing the city", "stopping the voyage" and "living in seclusion", greatly changing the previous way of life through gathering and direct communication. Changes in lifestyle naturally affect traditional family patterns. In the generalized social cost, it is also necessary to fully estimate the social psychological cost. In the United States, the continuously increasing social management costs (such as riots) in the context of the epidemic also need to be considered.

In terms of economic cost, it can be divided into direct economic cost and indirect economic cost. In terms of direct economic costs, the first to bear the brunt is the overall decline of the tertiary industry, the rupture of global value chains, supply chains, and industrial chains, the overall shrinkage of bulk commodities, energy, and animal husbandry in international trade, and the severe slowdown of global economic growth. Income has fallen, the number of unemployed has increased sharply, consumption power has shrunk, and the global average productivity level has dropped significantly [20]. In the new world of the epidemic era, investment and policy are expected to follow diametrically opposed core logics, and the logic of industry valuations has completely changed. In terms of indirect economic costs, more and more countries in the world are caught in the crisis of public healthcare systems and have to resort to fiscal deficit monetization policies, exacerbating fiscal fragility and ultimately eroding the foundation of the welfare system.

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Thoughts on the long-term impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic

Human beings who have entered the 21st century, although they have experienced the "9.11" terrorism and the 2008 world financial crisis, are still full of confidence in the future. Although the ecological environment continues to deteriorate, due to the advancement of science and technology, the development of the Internet, and the progress of globalization, certain human conceits have been exacerbated. Most representatively, ecologists Paul J. Crutzen and Eugene F. Stoermer put forward the concept of "Anthropocene" in 2000: Human beings have become the influence on the global terrain and the earth. Geological forces of evolution [22]. However, the new crown virus has reversed the ideological inertia of anthropocentrism with unprecedented force, forcing human beings to admit the fragility of modernization, and even need to redefine modernization. Here are eight long-term considerations:

First, face up to the limitations of human cognition and countermeasures against the new coronavirus. In the first few months of the outbreak, even seasoned disease experts underestimated the severity of the outbreak and its potential for a global pandemic. The WHO tweeted that there is no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus. The subsequent development of the epidemic proved that human beings have limited professional knowledge and countermeasures against the new coronavirus, exposing the lack of public health resources. Viruses on the scale of nanometers are almost unimpeded in the modern social system built by humans, causing hundreds of thousands of human lives and hundreds of thousands of families to bear the sorrow of losing their loved ones. The speed of development of modern science and medicine cannot keep up with the speed of virus development and mutation. Judging from the characteristics of the new coronavirus, it is impossible for humans to completely eradicate it in a short period of time. It can be predicted that no matter whether a vaccine can be developed, the epidemic caused by the new coronavirus and its mutated offspring is likely to become normalized and will never disappear. After briefly suppressing the virus, there is a great chance that it will come back, and it will come every year (the so-called "post-epidemic era" may not be valid). If such an assumption is true, the curve presented by the new coronavirus in the period from 2019 to 2025 will be as shown in the following figure (Figure 3):

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Data source: See Stephen M. Kissler et al., “Projecting the Transmission Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the Postpandemic Period” paper by a research team led by epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch at the Harvard School of Public Health ”, Science 368, no. 6493 (2020): 860-68.

Explanation: The definition of "SARS-CoV-2" in the picture comes from the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses Coronavirus Research Group (ICVT-CSG) published in "Nature Microbiology" on March 2, 2020 on the new coronavirus Named statement. Due to the genetic similarity between the new coronavirus and the same virus based on the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV), the virus was named "severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus" by ICVT-CSG on February 11. Virus 2” (SARS-CoV-2).

Second, the epidemic caused by the new crown virus and other viruses will lead to a long-term shortage of global medical and health resources. With the normalization of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, coupled with the epidemic caused by new viruses that may be faced before and in the future, as well as the cardiovascular diseases and cancers induced by viruses, resulting in the formation of a variety of viruses and diseases, human health care and health Investment in the field has to continue to increase, but it is still difficult to meet the "medical black hole" that needs to absorb other resources in society. All countries in the world are facing the problem of how to allocate limited medical resources. As the commentator said: "Be prepared to coexist with the epidemic for a long time. ’ competition.”【23】

Third, all governments need to strike a difficult balance between saving lives and saving the economy. This epidemic proves that the various economic, social and political resources paid for "saving lives" are very huge. For example, it costs more than US$1 million to cure a patient with new coronary pneumonia in the United States [24]; the cost of treating a critically ill patient in China is 400,000 yuan, and the cost of treating a severe patient is 200,000 yuan [25] . More importantly, various forms of segregation have caused huge indirect economic costs and directly consumed the country's economic capacity. Even in the absence of the epidemic, the cost of maintaining health and developing related technologies in countries around the world has continued to increase. The expenditure on health protection has become a heavy burden for enterprises, taxpayers, and patients. The outbreak and rapid spread of the epidemic have made things worse ". Some countries have proposed "collective immunity" to avoid any form of "suspension" of the national economy. The risk is that the cost of overall loss of life is out of control. The whole world has fallen into such a situation: "We have created a world that provides a breeding ground for the epidemic, but is not well prepared to fight the epidemic." [26] This situation must change.

Fourth, in order to control the epidemic, the governance capacity of the country and the government needs to be strengthened, and the rights of citizens will inevitably be weakened. If the epidemic becomes protracted and normalized, leading to a deterioration of the relief situation, an increase in the number of unemployed, a widening gap between the rich and the poor, rising populism, and an imbalance in the social structure, the government will need to resort to financial means and other means to relieve the poor in society, such as directly "giving money to the poor." "money" and subsidies in other ways, forming a new model of national competition under the epidemic. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the power and resources of the country have been fully demonstrated, and the people have to rely on help from government resources; the need for a competent government has become the global mainstream public opinion. The problem is that, compared with the financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic has forced countries to significantly increase fiscal expenditures, and ultimately the public still pays the bill.

Fifth, the epidemic has caused all-round setbacks in globalization and urbanization. Because of globalization and urbanization, the virus can cross continents and oceans in just a few to a dozen hours through international flights, causing global spread. From a global perspective, the main places where the virus spread this time are metropolitan cities. The virus can infect tens of thousands of people in just a few days, causing an unacceptable scale of deaths in cities with cramped spaces, dense populations, and insufficient infrastructure and open space to support social distancing. According to a report by the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) on July 7, the WHO has finally admitted that there is growing evidence that the new coronavirus can be transmitted through tiny particles suspended in the air. In China, in order to prevent the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in cities, the cost of the country is in the hundreds of billions of yuan. However, the outbreak of the epidemic in rural areas is very low, although the ability to resist the epidemic in rural areas is the weakest. Therefore, "the epidemic ends in the countryside", now we need to reflect on globalization, urbanization and metropolitanization [27].

Seventh, to measure the degree of harm of modern viruses, we need to use whether human beings can return to their original living conditions as the yardstick. In human history, there are many epidemics that almost pushed mankind to the brink of extinction, but after the epidemic, human beings can still live and produce in the same way as before. This epidemic will be a watershed in the history of the epidemic. Not only will the path of global economic recovery become more tortuous and unpredictable, but it will be difficult for people all over the world to return to their old way of life, and it will be difficult for the global economy to operate in the original way. For example, face masks are becoming part of everyday life, and keeping a distance of six feet (approximately 1.8 meters) between people is becoming a new instinct [30]. Human beings need holistic self-knowledge, as McNeill (William H. McNeill) said: "While human beings improve their destiny, they also increase their vulnerability to disease. We should realize that our strength is There are limits, ... It should be remembered that the more we win, the more we drive infectious diseases to the margins of human experience, the more we clear the way for catastrophic infectious diseases. We can never escape the limits of ecosystems. "【31】

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Eighth, the COVID-19 epidemic has exacerbated inequality in modern society, which is manifested in: (1) Inequality in social classes. In this epidemic, the groups paying the greatest cost of life come from social classes with poor quality of life and medical conditions. (2) Inequality in industrial sectors. On the one hand, the epidemic has led to the rise of so-called "contactless" industries, such as online entertainment, online education, online office, and telemedicine. Based on the digital economy, the artificial intelligence, medical and pharmaceutical industries have gained new growth opportunities; on the other hand, the epidemic has severely hit traditional service industries and low-skilled industries, resulting in a significant reduction in income and job losses for practitioners in these industries. Among them, women have a higher employment density in the service industry, and I believe they will pay more. (3) Inequality among countries. The degree of harm the outbreak has caused to developed and poor countries, as well as its near- and medium-term consequences, vary widely.

On Earth, viruses are likely to be the nano-scale living matter discovered by humans that consumes the lowest energy and does not directly generate entropy, but can effectively change the state of human existence. In the 1960s and 1970s, the industrialization of the world was in its golden age, with unprecedented material wealth, human arrogance, and "the illusion of unlimited powers" (the illusion of unlimited powers) [32]. Some economists even assert that the world's production problems have been solved and mankind can rest easy from now on. At this moment, the British economist EF Schumacher published the book "Small Is Beautiful: Economics as if People Mattered" in 1973 with rationality and observation beyond the times. This book can be regarded as a classic of economics in the twentieth century, discussing the ultimate harm of capital-intensive and resource-intensive industries to human society. But unfortunately, the relationship between viruses and contemporary humans has not been included in Schumacher's vision. As an empirical science, economics needs to introduce the research results of physics and biology to reconstruct its micro- and macro-structure. Schumacher said: "We might expect that economics must derive its aims and objectives from the study of human beings, and that it must derive most of its methodology from the study of nature." [33]

The new crown virus has been raging around the world for half a year, and there is still no inflection point of overall attenuation. Not only that, during the flu season this winter, worries about a second wave of epidemics have also emerged [34]. If there is a second wave of the epidemic, its destructiveness is difficult to predict. Will countries in the world be able to bear greater social costs? Therefore, from now on, human beings need to rely on wisdom and science, re-examine the value of health and life, and form a social system and lifestyle that coexist with nano-scale viruses as soon as possible.

【5】Felix M. Key et al.,“Emergence of Human-adapted Salmonella Enterica Is Linked to the Neolithization Process”, Nature Ecology & Evolution 4, no. 3 (2020): 1-10.

【6】Jared Diamond, Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies (New York: W. W. Norton, 1997).

note

【8】Honglei Sun et al.,“Prevalent Eurasian Avian-like H1N1 Swine Influenza Virus with 2009 Pandemic Viral Genes Facilitating Human Infection”(29 June 2020), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America。

【9】〈[1] "Virus", an English word, is literally translated as "virus" in Chinese. The word "poison" affects the neutral characteristics of "virus" itself, because not all "viruses" cause harm to humans.【2】Animal viruses may contain DNA or RNA; plant viruses are mostly RNA viruses except for a few groups; bacteriophages are mostly DNA viruses except for a few families.

【10】 Tao Wang et al.,“Attention Should be Paid to Venous Thromboembolism Prophylaxis in the Management of COVID-19”(9 April 2020), The Lancet Haematology。

【11】 Marina Pollán et al.,“Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Spain (ENE-COVID): A Nationwide, Population-based Seroepidemiological Study”(6 July 2020), The Lancet。

【12】 Wen-Bin Yu et al.，“Decoding the Evolution and Transmissions of the Novel Pneumonia Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2 / HCoV-19) Using Whole Genomic Data”, Zoological Research 41, no. 3 (2020): 247-57.

【13】〈【3】【4】Baiwa: "How many viruses are there in total on the earth", "Big Science and Technology (New Encyclopedia)", Issue 5, 2015, pages 13; 12.【7】Whether pathogens originated from domestic animals is still a hypothesis that needs more evidence to prove, not a conclusion. There are certain limitations in the study of ancient DNA. For example, many pathogens develop rapidly and kill the host before causing skeletal lesions, and animal archaeologists are constantly updating the origin of various domesticated animals. events and locations.Will Covid-19 Mutate into a More Dangerous Virus?”(10 May 2020), The Guardian。

【14】〈Coronavirus〉(January 9, 2020), Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.The D614G Mutation in the SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Reduces S1 Shedding and Increases Infectivity”(12 June 2020)。

【15】“Mutations May be Making Coronavirus More Contagious: Researchers”。

【16】“Patient Infected with Two Strains of COVID-19 in Iceland”(24 March 2020), Reykjav ík Grapevine

【17】“Exclusive: Covid-19 May Not Have Originated in China, Oxford University Expert Believes”(5 July 2020), The Telegraph。 

Harvard University publishes Science: About the hopeless future of the new crown

〉(July 2, 2020), Tencent.com, "

The infectious power has increased by 9 times! The virus strain in Beijing has mutated this time

〉(June 26, 2020), Sohu.com; Lizhou Zhang et al., "[18] There is a hypothesis: the virus may come from the product of an alien intelligent civilization earlier than humans. Viruses do not look like the product of natural evolution. For example, the most numerous virus "bacteriophage" we are familiar with looks like a small robot in appearance.[19] Now there is another saying: because the effective period of antibodies produced by human infected persons may only be forty weeks (300 days), which is shorter than the development cycle of vaccines. If the vaccine doesn't work, then COVID-19 will turn into a flu that is 10 to 50 times more lethal.

【22】 Paul J. Crutzen and Eugene F. Stoermer,“The‘Anthropocene’”, Global Change Newsletter , no. 41 (May 2000): 17.

【20】The latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is that the global economy will shrink by 4.9% in 2020. Except for a few countries, almost all economies will fall into recession. The International Labor Organization (ILO) predicts that in the second quarter of this year, about 310 million jobs worldwide will be lost due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic.[21] Cheng Shi: <An unbalanced world in the era of epidemics

【24】“Coronavirus Survival Comes with A $1.1 Million, 181-page Price Tag”(12 June 2020), The Seattle Times。

【25】〈〉(June 28, 2020), Sohu.com.[23] Zhang Qianye: <

Under the epidemic situation, where should non-coronavirus patients go?

〉, "FT Chinese Network" WeChat public platform.In China's fight against the epidemic, the treatment costs and losses are all borne by the state. How much did it cost in total?〉(July 3, 2020), Baidu.com.

【28】〈【26】Ed Yong: "Apocalypse of Novel Coronavirus" (July 5, 2020), The Paper, www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_8033764.[27] Wen Tiejun: <

【29】〈The Pandemic Stops in the Villages——The Origin of the Strategic Transformation of Ecological Civilization〉, "Double Green 66-member Roundtable" WeChat public platform.

The survey found that the first batch of SARS patients had close contact with wild animals

〉(May 10, 2003), National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China.

【32】【33】 E. F. Schumacher, Small Is Beautiful: Economics as if People Mattered , (New York: Harper & Row, 1973), 3; 22.

Antarctica broke through 20 degrees! With 1.5 trillion tons of glaciers melting, will ancient viruses recover?