MSX美股每日观察：苹果FY 2026 Q3财报：iPhone、Mac、Services三项创新高，但供应链隐忧拖累下季指引，股价走低
- 核心观点：苹果2024财年Q3财报显示核心业务营收、EPS及iPhone、Mac、服务收入均超预期并创六月季度历史新高，但下季营收指引低于市场预期，主因先进制程芯片和内存成本等供应链约束将显著加剧，导致财报后股价重挫。
- 关键要素：
- 营收1094.17亿美元，超预期1088.53亿美元；EPS为2.02美元，超预期1.89美元，iPhone、Mac、服务三项收入均创六月季度新高。
- 毛利率50.1%包含约2个百分点关税退款一次性利好，剔除后约48.1%仍略超预期47.9%；但服务收入307.39亿与iPad收入61.91亿均不及预期。
- 下季指引营收增速9%-11%，低于一致预期约12%；管理层预警供应链（先进制程芯片、内存成本）对iPhone、iPad、Mac的制约将"显著加剧"。
- 本季为库克卸任CEO前的最后一次财报电话会；市场核心关注供应紧张是否拖累Q4旺季出货。
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Today's Observation
Apple's quarterly revenue, EPS, iPhone, and Mac sales all beat expectations, with iPhone, Mac, and Services revenue all setting new June quarter (Apple's fiscal Q3) records. Revenue came in at $109.417 billion, beating the expected $108.853 billion; EPS of $2.02 beat the expected $1.89; Mac revenue of $10.352 billion significantly beat the expected $8.619 billion. The gross margin of 50.1% includes approximately 2 percentage points of one-time tariff refund benefits; excluding this, it was approximately 48.1%, still slightly above the expected ~47.9%. Services revenue ($30.739 billion) and iPad revenue ($6.191 billion) missed expectations, marking the only two weak spots. However, the next-quarter guidance was weak: management warned that supply chain constraints (advanced process chips, memory costs) on iPhone, iPad, and Mac would "significantly intensify," with total revenue growth guidance of 9%-11%, below the consensus estimate of approximately 12%, causing the stock to slump after the earnings release. This was also the last earnings call before CEO Tim Cook steps down.
Data in a Minute
Revenue of $109.417 billion, beating the expected $108.853 billion
EPS of $2.02, beating the expected $1.89
iPhone, Mac, and Services revenue all set June quarter records
Gross margin of 50.1% (including ~2 percentage points of tariff refund benefits), approximately 48.1% excluding this, still beating the expected ~47.9%
Services revenue of $30.739 billion, missing the expected $31.359 billion; iPad revenue of $6.191 billion, missing the expected $6.890 billion
Mac revenue of $10.352 billion, significantly beating the expected $8.619 billion
Next-quarter guidance: revenue growth of 9%-11% (below the expected ~12%); gross margin guidance of 47%-48%
MSX View
This earnings report carries substantial information both on and off the surface: iPhone, Mac, and Services all set June quarter records, showing solid momentum in core businesses. The 50.1% gross margin looks impressive at first glance, but breaking it down, approximately 2 percentage points came from one-time tariff refund benefits. Excluding this, it was 48.1%—still above expectations, but not as dramatic as the headline number suggests. What truly weighed on sentiment was the next-quarter guidance. Management directly cited supply chain constraints from advanced process chips and memory costs that would "significantly intensify," with revenue growth guidance of 9%-11% clearly missing the market's prior expectation of approximately 12%. This is the core reason the stock fell despite the "record-breaking" earnings. Looking ahead, whether the supply tightness is a "sweet burden" of overly strong demand or a genuine drag on peak-season shipments in Q4 is the most important signal to track going forward.
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