Bitcoin's oscillation does not change the bearish main theme; HYPE repeatedly tests the critical trend line | Special Analysis
- Core View: This week's market validated the prediction of an oversold rebound and HYPE meeting resistance at $72.97. BTC has entered a short-term consolidation pattern within the range. The height of the rebound is crucial; HYPE's upward structure has been damaged, with the rebound height determining the subsequent direction. The medium-term strategy shifts to bearish, while the short-term focuses on testing longs at support levels and testing shorts at resistance levels.
- Key Factors:
- Bitcoin's daily chart has formed a "descending center" structure. The market will likely enter a volatile consolidation pattern of center extension. Short-term focus is on the $64,700 resistance and $61,500 support.
- Bitcoin's 4-hour rebound shows a three-segment pattern. The current segment (46-47) exhibits bearish divergence signals. If the pullback stabilizes near "Endpoint 46", a rebound to the $65,700~$67,300 range is possible.
- The medium-term BTC strategy is bearish, maintaining positions at 20%. If a rebound to the $65,700~$67,300 area shows topping signals, positions can be increased to within 50%. Three trading plans (A/B/C) are formulated for the short-term.
- On the HYPE 4-hour chart, a seven-segment upward structure from $58.5 to $72.97 was completed. The current adjustment segment (61-62) broke below the previous low, damaging the upward structure. The maximum decline reached 9.39%.
- Short-term HYPE operations: If the rebound fails to break $72.97, build short positions on rallies (position size ≤ 30%). If it breaks above, stay flat as it approaches the strong resistance zone at the all-time high of $76.94.
- Trading risk management emphasizes dynamic stop-loss: Set a stop-loss upon entry. After a 1% profit, move the stop-loss to the cost line. Subsequently, for every 1% increase in profit, simultaneously move the stop-loss up by 1% to lock in profits.
In last week's report, based on Bitcoin's daily-level trend structure, we clearly put forward the core judgment that "the oversold rebound phase has begun, and the rebound height will determine the subsequent market direction"; at the same time, we issued a warning for HYPE that "the probability of adjustment near endpoint 61 ($72.97) is significant." The market trajectory this week has further validated the effectiveness of the above analytical framework: Bitcoin completed a multi-stage rebound as expected and touched key resistance levels, while HYPE encountered resistance and fell back around $72.97 as predicted, with a maximum decline of 9.39% at one point.
Based on this, this week's report will combine the latest 4-hour and daily-level trend structures, as well as signals from our proprietary quantitative model, to provide a detailed breakdown of the BTC and HYPE market evolution paths and specific trading strategies.
Key Trading Views Summary for This Week:
• BTC Multi-cycle Trend Structure Analysis (Details in Part 1)
• BTC This Week's Market Forecast and Mid/Short-term Trading Strategies (Details in Part 2)
• HYPE Hourly Level Trend Structure Analysis (Details in Part 3)
• HYPE This Week's Market Forecast and Short-term Trading Strategies (Details in Part 4)
Market Validation of Last Week's Trading Strategies and Core Views:
• BTC Market Trend Prediction Validation: Last week's article clearly pointed out that Bitcoin had entered the daily-level oversold rebound phase and emphasized that the height of this rebound would determine the market's subsequent direction. The current market trajectory is developing in the direction we predicted.
• HYPE Market Trend Prediction Validation: Last week's article indicated that the probability of HYPE undergoing adjustment near 'endpoint 61' ($72.97) was significant. So far, the market movement is highly consistent with our judgment.
1. Analysis of Bitcoin's Previous Cycle Trend Structure
1. Bitcoin Daily Level Trend Structure Analysis: (Based on market analysis after May 6)
Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart
Figure 1
①, As shown in (Figure 1): Since the adjustment started from the May 6 high of $82,850, the daily chart has presented a four-segment adjustment structure: (0-1), (1-2), (2-3), and (3-4).
②, Since touching the low of $57,820 on July 1, the market is currently running in the (3-4) rebound segment, and the price has broken through the $64,500 resistance level. Last week's review explicitly stated: If this rebound first breaks through the $64,500 resistance, and then the $65,700 resistance (optimal), the probability of stabilizing above the low of $57,820 when the (3-4) rebound segment ends and pulls back increases significantly. This means a subsequent stabilization and rebound rally is likely.
③, At the daily level, the overlapping of the three segments (1-2), (2-3), and (3-4) has preliminarily formed a 'descending consolidation zone' (as shown in the chart). Based on the above analysis, the market is highly likely to enter a 'consolidation zone extension' phase, meaning the 'consolidation zone' will be formed by overlapping five or even more segments. This suggests the short-term market will enter a sideways consolidation pattern.
2. In-depth Analysis of Bitcoin's Hourly Level Trend Structure: (Using 4-hour as the analysis cycle)
Bitcoin_4 Hour K-line Chart
Figure 2
①, On the 4-hour chart, the rebound starting from the July 1 low of $57,820 has clearly shown a three-segment structure: (44-45), (45-46), and (46-47).
②, Based on the current trend structure analysis, the price is running in the (46-47) rebound segment. When creating the local high 'endpoint 47', our proprietary 'Momentum Quantitative Model' generated a clear bearish divergence signal, and the 'Spread Trading Model' triggered a top warning signal (white dot). Therefore, the probability of an hourly-level technical adjustment occurring here is extremely high. If the price pulls back as expected, focus on the support level near 'endpoint 46'. If a stabilization signal appears at this level, another rebound is likely. The first upside target will be $65,700; if the rebound momentum is strong, the next important target is $67,300.
2. Bitcoin This Week's Market Forecast and Trading Strategies: (07.13 ~ 07.19)
1. BTC This Week's Market Trend Forecast:
This Week's Core View: Focus on the price action around the key resistance level of $64,700. If an adjustment occurs as expected, closely observe the effectiveness of support near $61,500. A stabilization signal at this level will determine whether the subsequent rebound can continue.
2. Key Resistance Levels:
• First Resistance Zone: $64,700 area (Previous consolidation zone upper轨)
• Second Resistance Zone: Around $65,700 ~ $67,300 (Previous important resistance area)
• Third Resistance Zone: $69,500 ~ $71,000 area (Previous important resistance area)
3. Key Support Levels:
• First Support Zone: $60,950 ~ $62,000 area (Previous important support area)
• Second Support Zone: Around $57,820 (Previous important support area)
• Third Support Zone: Around $55,000 (Previous important support area)
### 4. This Week's Trading Strategies (Excluding Unexpected News Impact):
①, Medium-term Strategy: Bitcoin_Daily K-line Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)
Figure 3
Position Monitoring Model: As shown in (Figure 3), the price has effectively broken below the 'Bull-Bear Channel', confirming that the market structure has shifted to a bearish dominance pattern.
• Currently, maintain the medium-term short position at around 20%.
• If the price rebounds to the $65,700 ~ $67,300 area and shows signs of stalling, combined with top signals from our proprietary quantitative model, consider increasing the medium-term short position to within 50%.
②, Short-term Strategy: Use 30% of capital, set stop-loss points, and seek 'spread trading' opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Using 30-minute / 60-minute charts as the operation cycle).
③, To dynamically address complex market developments in short-term trading, we have formulated three specific operational contingency plans, A, B, and C.
• Plan A: Tentatively go long if support holds in the $60,950 ~ $62,000 area. • Entry: If the price adjusts from around $64,700 and shows a stabilization signal upon reaching the $60,950 ~ $62,000 area, combined with a bottom signal from the quantitative model, aggressive investors can establish a long position of around 15%. • Risk Management: Set an initial stop-loss. • Exit: When the price rebounds near an important resistance level, combined with signals from the quantitative model, gradually close the position to lock in profits.
• Plan B: Tentatively short near the strong resistance zone. • Entry: If the price rebounds to the $65,700 ~ $67,300 area and encounters resistance, combined with a top signal from the quantitative model, a short position of around 30% can be established. • Risk Management: Set an initial stop-loss. • Exit: When the price adjusts near an important support level, combined with signals from the quantitative model, gradually close the position to lock in profits.
• Plan C: Lightly test long near the strong support zone. • Entry: The price breaks above $65,700 but then encounters resistance and pulls back. If a stabilization signal appears above the previous low of $57,820 during the pullback, combined with a bottom signal from the quantitative model, a long position of around 30% can be established. • Risk Management: Set an initial stop-loss. • Exit: When the price rebounds near an important resistance level, combined with model signals, gradually close the position to lock in profits.
3. HYPE Hourly Level Trend Structure Analysis
HYPE_4 Hour K-line Chart
Figure 4
1, As shown in (Figure 4), from the June 25 low of $58.5 (Endpoint 54) to the July 7 high of $72.97 (Endpoint 61), HYPE can be subdivided into a seven-segment upward structure on the 4-hour timeframe. Within this structure, segments 55-56, 56-57, and 57-58 overlap, forming an 'upward consolidation zone'.
2, As noted in last week's review: Since the move from 'Endpoint 54 to Endpoint 61' formed a complete seven-segment upward structure, and top warning signals were triggered at 'Endpoint 59' and 'Endpoint 61' respectively, caution regarding short-term adjustment risks was warranted. The market encountered resistance and adjusted around $72.97 as expected last week. During the (61-62) adjustment segment, the maximum decline was approximately 9.39%.
3, According to the 4-hour chart analysis, the price is currently running in the (61-62) adjustment segment. 'Endpoint 62' has already fallen below the previous low of 'Endpoint 60' ($68.16), initially disrupting the uptrend structure established since 'Endpoint 54'.
4. HYPE This Week's Market Forecast and Short-term Trading Strategies
1. HYPE This Week's Market Trend Forecast:
①, Key Resistance Levels:
• First Resistance Zone: $68 ~ $69.5 area
• Second Resistance Zone: Around $72.97
• Third Resistance Zone: Around $76.94
②, Key Support Levels:
• First Support Zone: Around $65.5
• Second Support Zone: $60.5 ~ $61.5 area
This Week's Core View on HYPE: Focus on the termination point of the current adjustment 'Endpoint 62', and whether the subsequent rebound height can break through the resistance at $72.97.
2. HYPE This Week's Short-term Trading Strategies: Short-term operations this week: Strategy 1: If the price rebounds and breaks through the $72.97 resistance after the (61-62) adjustment segment ends, since it is approaching the strong resistance zone near the all-time high of $76.94, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines and observe.
Strategy 2: Conversely, if the price rebounds but fails to reach $72.97 after the (61-62) adjustment segment ends, it is recommended to establish short positions on bounces. Strict stop-loss must be set, and position size should be controlled within 30%.
5. Special Reminder:
- When opening a position: Set the initial stop-loss immediately.
- When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the breakeven point (entry cost) to ensure principal safety.
- When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the 1% profit level.
- Continuous Tracking: For every additional 1% gain afterwards, move the stop-loss up by 1% to dynamically protect and lock in profits.
The financial market changes rapidly. All market analyses and trading strategies require dynamic adjustments. All views, analytical models, and trading strategies mentioned in this article are derived from personal technical analysis, serve only as a personal trading journal, and do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. Market risk exists; investment requires caution. Do not make decisions based solely on this.
