芯片股“最大利空”终于来了？Meta会是“第一个缩减资本开支的大厂”吗？

Original Author: Ye Zhen

Original Source: Wall Street News

Meta's plan to sell off excess computing power has shaken the core belief in the market that "computing power is absolutely scarce." This strategic shift has triggered a sharp outflow of capital from chip stocks and also marks a turning point in market tolerance for the unchecked capital expenditure of tech giants.

This news has caused extreme polarization in the secondary market. Meta, which proactively signaled a reduction in spending, saw its stock price surge 10% in a single day, its best performance of the year. Conversely, traditional AI hardware beneficiaries—semiconductor giants, memory chip manufacturers, and emerging cloud service providers (Neocloud)—suffered heavy losses, dragging down the Nasdaq index with significant volatility.

Wall Street institutions generally interpret this as a major narrative shift in the AI investment cycle. The market's focus is rapidly moving from pure hardware infrastructure construction towards the stability of enterprise free cash flow and computing power utilization. Investors are beginning to reward tech giants that demonstrate financial discipline with real capital.

This reshaping of the underlying logic has not only rewritten the power dynamic between hyperscalers and chip suppliers but has also directly led to the collapse of crowded momentum trading strategies, planting new uncertainties for the upcoming US earnings season and market liquidity.

Meta Shifts Strategy, Selling "Excess Computing Power"; CapEx of Major Players Faces Turning Point

According to Bloomberg, Meta is building a new business unit to sell its excess computing capacity to external customers for revenue. Insiders revealed that potential plans include allowing external access to various AI models hosted on Meta's existing AI infrastructure, a model similar to AWS's Bedrock service. Meta will operate the data centers and chips powering models like Muse Spark and charge developers for access.

Furthermore, Meta is also considering directly selling "raw" computing power. Ironically, Meta had just signed multi-billion dollar contracts with emerging cloud service providers like CoreWeave and Nebius, and this move now means it will turn around and compete directly with its own suppliers.

This internal initiative, codenamed "Meta Compute," aims to build and manage the company's AI infrastructure. The team is co-led by Meta's Head of Infrastructure Santosh Janardhan, AI Executive from the Super Intelligence Lab Daniel Gross, and Meta President Dina Powell McCormick.

In fact, this shift was foreshadowed. During the shareholder call in May, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg hinted to investors that selling excess computing power or API services was "definitely on the table." Another company that previously sold excess computing power, SpaceX, is also currently facing increased competition in selling its capacity and related challenges.

"Computing Scarcity" Logic Challenged; Chips and Momentum Stocks Hit Hard

Meta's move directly challenges the core premise that had driven the recent surge in chip stocks. Rich Privorotsky, Head of Goldman Sachs' 1-Delta trading desk, warned that the market's core assumption has been computing scarcity. Once supply increases and leasing prices fall, the scarcity narrative will be directly overturned, with the hardware sector feeling the pain first.

Goldman Sachs warned that the AI market is like a stretched rubber band. The market's persistent disregard for negative signals will eventually reach a tipping point. If any major tech giant takes the lead in cutting AI spending first, the valuation logic for the entire AI sector will face a comprehensive restructuring. Simultaneously, the rise of low-cost AI models is challenging the current "high spending for growth" logic.

Affected by the Meta news, the chip and memory storage sectors were hit first, with star stocks like Nvidia, Micron, and SanDisk experiencing heavy selling. Emerging cloud service providers were seen as the most obvious losers, with their stock prices recording some of their largest single-day declines this year.

The sharp decline in the hardware sector directly triggered a total collapse of momentum strategies. Goldman Sachs' high-beta momentum basket (currently comprised mainly of chip and memory stocks), after hitting record gains, plummeted 9% in a single day. BTIG analyst Jonathan Krinsky noted that the long/short high-beta momentum index fell 10%, its worst single-day performance since 2020.

Additionally, the yield spread between the Bloomberg Mag7 index and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) hit its largest single-day extreme (+8%) since 2015, indicating a frantic exodus of capital from the semiconductor sector.

Market Logic Reshaped; Investors Reward "Spending Cuts"

In stark contrast to the hardware sector's dismal performance, the market gave a high premium to signals of capital expenditure reduction. As Goldman Sachs had previously predicted, the first hyperscaler to signal a potential slowdown in spending pace would be rewarded with a stock price increase.

Meta's 10% surge confirms this judgment, indicating that investors believe incremental revenue streams and financial discipline are more attractive than limitless arms races at current valuation multiples.

UBS trader Christina Dwyer stated that the related reports shifted the market narrative towards stricter financial discipline, alleviating concerns about continuously rising capital expenditure. CapEx expectations are no longer unilaterally tilted upwards, and the market focus has shifted to the stability of free cash flow.

Against the backdrop of capital rotation, the software sector posted its second-largest single-day excess return relative to the semiconductor sector in a year.

Intensified Competition and Liquidity Concerns; Upcoming Earnings as Key Guide

Meta's entry complicates the supply-demand outlook for hyperscalers. While the emergence of a new competitor disrupts the established landscape, the easing of supply chain bottlenecks could also lead to reduced cost pressures.

UBS pointed out that the mention of "excess capacity" has raised market concerns about the true underlying demand for AI. Looking ahead to the upcoming Q2 and Q3 earnings seasons, corporate guidance and full-year capital expenditure plans will be crucial in determining whether the current valuation reassessment can be sustained.

It is worth noting that while the market undergoes massive rotations, it faces severe liquidity risks. Goldman Sachs' trading desk warned that despite the US stock market recording its highest average daily trading volume since 2026, market liquidity remains extremely poor. In June, the top-of-book liquidity for S&P E-mini futures plunged 33% month-over-month, from $12 million to just $8 million.

This means the market is conducting record trading in a capital pool that has become drastically shallower. Every large order triggers more significant market volatility, execution costs are rising, and the risk of abnormal intraday collapses remains high. Coupled with the seasonal factor that momentum stocks have historically underperformed in July, the tug-of-war between chip stocks and the broader market could face even more intense turbulence.