BTC跌破6万美元生死线：预测市场为何集体看空下半年币圈

Overview

In June 2026, Bitcoin once again fell below the psychological threshold of $60,000, briefly dipping to around $59,100 during trading hours, marking its lowest level since late 2024. This was not an isolated event – throughout June, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows exceeding $4 billion. Coupled with the probability of "BTC hitting $150,000 this year" being slashed to less than 1% by traders on prediction markets like Polymarket, market sentiment is undergoing a systemic repricing. This article will dissect the chain reaction of breaching this crucial level, the specific data behind institutional capital flight, and the signals for the second half of the year emanating from prediction markets, helping you understand the true driving forces behind the current correction.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin broke below $60,000 on June 24th, briefly trading in the range of $59,100 to $60,200, representing a decline of over 50% from its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025.

In June, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a record 13 consecutive trading days of net outflows, with cumulative outflows reaching $4.4 billion. This marks the most severe capital exodus since the ETFs were approved in early 2024.

The probability of "Bitcoin hitting $150,000 this year" on Polymarket has dropped to less than 1% (as of the June 30th window) and around 5% (as of the December 31st window), while the probability of "year-end price below $100,000" once stood as high as 61%.

The derivatives market simultaneously experienced a liquidation wave, with single-day liquidation volumes ranging from over $1 billion to as high as $3 billion, the vast majority of which were forced closures of long positions.

Due to over $1.2 billion in open interest for put options at the $60,000 strike price in the derivatives market, this level has transformed from a previous support zone into a potential resistance area.

Why Did Bitcoin Break Below $60,000 Again?

This decline was not triggered by a single event, but by the simultaneous confluence of multiple pressures. According to a report by CoinDesk, Jean-David Péquignot, Chief Commercial Officer at Deribit, pointed out that over the past year, a large amount of institutional capital – including ETF buyers, large holders, and short-term speculators – had concentrated their entry costs in the $60,000 to $67,000 range. When prices fell below this range, the unrealized losses for these buyers began to widen. The opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin, relative to the surge in AI-related stocks, became increasingly high, fueling the impetus for panic selling.

Simultaneously, analysis by Bloomberg indicates that this decline was accompanied by heightened concerns over the sustainability of Strategy's (formerly MicroStrategy) financing mechanisms, as well as a general shift in retail trader attention and capital – a large number of individual investors are turning their focus towards AI concept stocks, moving away from crypto assets. Compass Point analyst Ed Engel also noted in his report that selling behavior among long-term holders (holding for over 6 months) is increasing, often considered a typical signal of late-cycle capital capitulation.

The macro level cannot be ignored either. According to market analysis by IG, the sharp correction in the AI and semiconductor sectors, delays in the progress of the U.S. CLARITY Act, and early selling signals from long-term holders collectively formed the spark for this decline.

June ETF Net Outflow Data: Institutional Capital is Exiting on a Large Scale

If retail panic is the symptom, then the withdrawal of institutional capital is the core driving force behind this correction. According to NFT Plazas citing SoSoValue data, as of early June, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $4.4 billion. This is the longest record of capital exodus since the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2024.

The significance of this figure lies in the fact that ETFs have been the core pillar supporting the institutional demand narrative for Bitcoin over the past two years. According to a report by CNBC, the total net asset value of Bitcoin ETFs has shrunk significantly from $107.8 billion on May 14th to $80.4 billion. An outflow of this magnitude indicates that the core buying power that previously supported price increases is systematically weakening. It's worth noting that this consecutive outflow record was eventually broken on a trading day in June, with a single-day net inflow of about $3 million. However, this was mostly interpreted by the market as a technical breather rather than a signal of a trend reversal.

Why is the Polymarket Prediction Market Collectively Bearish?

Prices in prediction markets often reflect true market sentiment backed by "real money" bets better than traditional analyst reports. According to a report by Bitcoin.com News, a Polymarket market for Bitcoin's yearly price, with a trading volume of $45 million, showed that traders gave a 64% probability of Bitcoin falling to or hitting $50,000 before the end of 2026. Meanwhile, on Kalshi, a market with over $10 million in trading volume gave only a 14% probability of Bitcoin returning to $100,000 by January 2027.

Even more symbolic is the probability change in the market for "Bitcoin touching $150,000 this year." According to real-time data from the Polymarket page, the probability for the June 30th window has fallen to less than 1%. Even when widened to the year-end window of December 31st, the probability remains at only around 5%. In contrast, at the beginning of the year, analysts at institutions like Standard Chartered, Strategy, and Bernstein were still widely predicting Bitcoin would hit $150,000 in 2026. A previous report by CoinMarketCap showed this probability was still at 21% in early January this year, but it has now narrowed significantly.

As for the more pessimistic proposition of "year-end price below $100,000," a previous report by The Block showed its probability once stood as high as 61%, reflecting the deepening caution and even pessimism among traders regarding the market's trajectory in the second half of the year. Behind this collective bearish sentiment lie both concerns about the ebbing of institutional buying and the pricing of uncertainty surrounding new market dynamics after the disruption of the traditional four-year cycle pattern.

After Breaking Below $60,000, Where is the Next Strong Support Level?

Technically, the significance of the $60,000 level is not merely psychological; it also has practical structural implications for the derivatives market. According to IG's analysis, data from the Deribit derivatives exchange shows that the open interest for put options at the $60,000 strike price exceeds $1.2 billion. When hedging these positions, market makers often need to sell spot or futures as prices approach this strike price. This "gamma hedging" behavior can itself accelerate the decline.

Looking downwards, multiple analytical reports provide relatively consistent expectations for support levels. One view suggests that the $55,000 level (corresponding to the low from February 2026 and a historical volume-weighted average price zone) is the first key support. If this level is lost, the market may accelerate its test of the $50,000 to $52,000 range, which concentrates multiple technical indicators like miner production costs and the cost basis of long-term holders. Separately, according to CryptoQuant on-chain data analysis, the area around $53,600 is also considered a statistically significant potential support level, incorporating on-chain indicators such as historical price action and the realized price of short-term holders.

It is important to emphasize that these support levels are reference ranges derived from historical data and on-chain indicators, not deterministic predictions – the high volatility of the crypto market means actual price action can still deviate significantly from any single model's forecast.

Liquidation Chain Reaction in the Derivatives Market

This decline has been accompanied by a significant deleveraging of positions. According to IG's statistics, the single-day liquidation volume on June 24th reached approximately $994 million, with about $780 million stemming from forced closures of long positions. Earlier in June, multiple reports indicated that single-day liquidation volumes briefly exceeded between $1 billion and $3 billion. This was partly due to chain-reaction stop-loss orders and algorithmic selling triggered after the price broke key technical levels like $65,000.

The formation mechanism of this liquidation wave exhibits typical negative feedback characteristics: a price drop triggers the liquidation of leveraged long positions, the forced selling further depresses prices, which in turn triggers a new round of liquidations at even lower prices. Michael Saylor, the high-profile founder of Strategy, has publicly warned that the existence of leveraged longs not yet fully flushed out of the system means that once $60,000 is lost, collateral metrics could rapidly deteriorate, triggering a new wave of automated cascade liquidations.

In this high-volatility environment, both spot and futures traders need more sophisticated risk management tools to cope with potential dramatic swings. If you are looking to capture structural opportunities amidst the volatility, MEXC offers a complete trading system covering spot and futures, complemented by real-time liquidation data and funding rate monitoring tools, helping traders better gauge the progression of market deleveraging.

Divergence Between Market Sentiment and Institutional Views

Notably, not all market participants are pessimistic. Matt Cole, CEO of Strive, stated in a CNBC interview that this is the fifth time Bitcoin has touched the 200-week moving average, and each of the previous four instances proved to be excellent buying opportunities. Charles-Henry Monchau, Chief Investment Officer at Syz Group, attributed the recent decline to selling pressure from Strategy and the capital siphon effect of "hot money" flowing into AI stocks and South Korean memory chip stocks.

Simultaneously, Bitcoin's 30-day Pearson correlation coefficient with traditional tech stocks like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 has fallen sharply from near-perfect positive correlation levels a month ago. This suggests that the market is re-evaluating the previously coexisting narratives of Bitcoin as "digital gold" and a "high-beta tech stock," with the tension between them becoming increasingly apparent.

Exclusive Opinion from MEXC Crypto Pulse Research Team

We believe that the current correction below $60,000 is essentially a resonance effect of two forces: the "repricing cycle" of institutional capital and the "structural shift" in retail attention, rather than mere panic selling. The 13 consecutive days of net outflows from ETFs do not reflect a denial of Bitcoin's long-term value, but rather a short-term redistribution of risk-on capital between the AI narrative and the crypto narrative. This type of capital rotation has historically appeared during every thematic shift in technology cycles and typically exhibits phased characteristics.

From the pricing logic of prediction markets, the two data points – "probability of $150,000 falling to 1%" and "61% probability of breaking below $100,000" – seem extremely pessimistic. However, they should be understood more as traders reasonably pricing in the high short-term path uncertainty, rather than a fundamental negation of Bitcoin's medium to long-term narrative. Historically, similar extremes of bearish consensus have often appeared near cyclical bottoming areas, rather than at the true start of a trend. However, this is by no means a sufficient reason for "buying the dip." Whether deleveraging is complete and whether ETF flows stabilize remain the two core variables requiring the most persistent monitoring in the second half of the year. We advise traders in the current environment to prioritize marginal changes in three indicators – funding rates, open interest, and spot ETF net flows – rather than relying solely on price itself for decision-making.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main reasons for Bitcoin falling below $60,000?

It is primarily caused by four factors working together: weakening institutional buying power due to consecutive net outflows from U.S. spot ETFs, correlated selling in risk assets triggered by the correction in AI and semiconductor sectors, forced liquidation of high-leverage long positions at key technical levels, and signs of early profit-taking by long-term holders.

Why are prediction markets so pessimistic about Bitcoin?

The pricing on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi reflects market consensus backed by real capital bets, not just a single analyst's opinion. Current data indicates that traders generally believe the probability of quickly returning to near all-time highs is extremely low in the short term, and are more inclined to bet on continued price pressure within the year. This aligns with the reality of ETF capital outflows and tightening macro liquidity conditions.

After losing $60,000, where is the next key support level?

Multiple technical analyses identify the $55,000 level and the $50,000 to $52,000 range as potential support. Some on-chain data models also point to the area around $53,600 as possessing statistically significant support characteristics. However, these are reference ranges, not definitive conclusions.

How should ordinary investors respond now?

It is recommended to avoid using excessive leverage in a high-volatility environment. Closely monitor leading indicators such as ETF fund flows, liquidation data, and funding rates. Plan your positions rationally based on your own risk tolerance, rather than chasing pumps or selling into panic.

Are the probability data from prediction markets reliable?

Prediction markets aggregate the collective judgment of participants through real capital transactions. Historically, their predictive accuracy has been high for events occurring within a one-month timeframe. However, their essence remains probability pricing based on current information, which adjusts continuously with new information and does not constitute a deterministic guarantee of the future.

Disclaimer

The content of this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any form of investment advice, financial advice, or trading advice. The cryptocurrency market is characterized by high volatility and high risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The price levels, probability data, and market forecasts mentioned in the article are based on public information available as of the time of writing and may become invalid due to market changes. Before making any investment decisions, readers should exercise independent judgment based on their own financial situation and may consult a professional financial advisor.