미국과 이란 간 갈등이 100일을 넘긴 가운데, 화해의 핵심 요소 중 하나는 자산 동결 해제 여부이다?협상의 기술은 전쟁과 이익의 타협에 있다.

• 핵심 견해: 미·이란 협상의 핵심 걸림돌은 이란의 동결 자산 240억 달러 해제 문제이며, 여기에는 약 10억 달러 상당의 암호화폐 자산(USDT, BTC, ETH 등)이 포함된다. 트럼프 대통령은 조기 동결 해제를 거부하고 강경한 태도를 고수함에 따라 단기간 내에 갈등이 진정으로 해결되기 어렵다.
• 핵심 요소:
  1. 이란 측은 동결된 240억 달러 자산의 해제를 요구하며, 그중 50%는 양해각서 체결 직후 해제되고, 나머지 자금은 1~2개월 내에 완료되어야 한다고 주장한다.
  2. 미국 재무장관 스콧 베센트는 이란의 암호화폐 자산 약 10억 달러, 즉 3억 4400만 달러 상당의 USDT와 BTC, ETH 등을 압수했음을 확인했으며, 작전명은 '경제적 분노'였다.
  3. 이란은 4단계 평화 계획을 제안했다. 먼저 군사 행동을 중단하고, 다음으로 자산 동결 해제와 제재 철폐에 집중하며, 이후 핵 문제 협상, 마지막으로 감독 위원회 구성을 추진한다.
  4. 트럼프 대통령은 2월 28일 이란 전쟁 발발 이후 최소 37차례에 걸쳐 공개적으로 '미·이란 합의가 임박했다'고 주장했지만, 실제로는 어떠한 자산 동결 해제나 제재 철폐도 거부했다.
  5. 미국은 동결된 이란 자산을 활용하여 분쟁 영향을 받은 걸프만 국가들의 재건을 지원함으로써 잠재적 손실을 보전하는 방안을 검토 중이다.

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser 2010 )

On June 10, the 103rd day of the US-Israel-Iran war, peace negotiations between the US and Iran remain difficult and inconclusive.

Today, following Israel's strike on Iran, according to US officials, the third round of US strikes on Iran has begun and quickly ended. Behind this century-defining conflict, the key to reconciliation lies not only in deeper issues of Iran's nuclear weapons and uranium enrichment raw materials, but also in a critical sticking point: US-frozen Iranian assets, totaling $24 billion, including approximately $1 billion in crypto assets.

Where did these assets come from? What do these crypto assets include? Can the US and Iran reach an agreement on this? These are the main topics of this article.

Trump's Absurd "Hot and Cold" Stance: Coexisting Toughness and Compromise

The key figure in whether the US-Iran conflict can end through negotiations is naturally US President Trump. However, Trump, being a businessman, is particularly tactful and, compared to typical political presidents, focuses more on practical interests. Therefore, his public image is extremely contradictory: on one hand, his statements are sometimes tough and sometimes soft; on the other hand, he is accustomed to creating confusion, using excuses like negotiations, reconciliation, and "an agreement is imminent" to mislead Iran and even the global news media, thereby achieving "market manipulation" and other ulterior motives.

According to CNN, since the outbreak of the Iran war on February 28, Trump has made statements similar to "a US-Iran agreement is imminent" over 30 times on social media, in public appearances, and in phone interviews with media reporters (Odaily Planet Daily note: some say at least 37 times).

Given this, Iran also does not harbor illusions about a "one-step" negotiation but has envisioned a four-stage plan.

On June 4, according to Iranian media Fars News, Iran outlined a four-phase plan to reach an agreement with the US:

• The first phase focuses on a comprehensive cessation of military operations on all fronts, including Iran, the US, and the Axis of Resistance;
• The second phase centers on implementation measures for four key issues, including: the Strait of Hormuz and related mechanisms, lifting blockades, removing oil restrictions and sanctions, and unfreezing some Iranian assets;
• The third phase will initiate broader negotiations on sanctions and nuclear issues after objective and verifiable measures are implemented;
• The fourth phase involves establishing a supervisory committee to oversee the implementation of the agreement and track compliance by all parties.

Previously, the US and Iran had stopped fighting, but due to Israel's renewed attack on Iran and the turbulent situation in Lebanon, the first phase's efforts were temporarily broken. The second phase is the main sticking point in US-Iran negotiations.

Specific Amount of Frozen Iranian Assets: Iran Claims $24 Billion, US Seized $1 Billion in Crypto Assets

Earlier, according to CNN, a US official familiar with the negotiations stated that one of the remaining key sticking points in US-Iran talks is the issue of economic compensation, as Trump is eager to reach an agreement perceived as superior to the one from the Obama administration.

The official stated that Iran has indicated to mediators that once a preliminary memorandum of understanding is agreed upon, they expect to receive some form of economic compensation promptly, rather than deferring it to a future time. However, Trump administration officials are concerned that unfreezing funds at such an early stage could reduce the economic damage to Iran, potentially eliminating or at least weakening a key leverage Washington holds over Tehran. This leverage will be crucial for the US to enter the second phase of negotiations to discuss the specifics of Iran's nuclear program. Trump has clearly told his team that he wants any agreement to appear much tougher than the 2015 deal and to avoid any actions that could be interpreted as "handing over large amounts of cash," a phrase Trump used to criticize Obama's decision to provide economic compensation to Iran.

On June 6, media sources reported that a potential agreement between the US and Iran depends on whether the US agrees to release $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets. This amount was later confirmed by an Iranian official.

On the same day, according to Iran's Tasnim News Agency, Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs, stated that at least 50% of Iran's frozen financial assets must be unfrozen immediately upon signing any memorandum of understanding with the US. He added that the remaining funds should be "unfrozen within a limited period of one to two months after the agreement is signed." Gharibabadi said these assets belong to Iran, were "illegally frozen" by the US, and their unfreezing is a core requirement of any potential understanding. He stated that further details regarding the mechanism for accessing the funds, including technical and financial arrangements, would be negotiated during the 60-day implementation period after the memorandum is signed.

However, this demand was immediately sternly rejected by Trump, who stated he would not unfreeze Iranian assets or lift any sanctions in advance as part of any agreement.

At the end of May, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated in a Fox News interview that the US had seized approximately $1 billion in Iranian crypto assets. Bessent said the action was part of sanctions against the Iranian regime and its network of proxies, and the funds have been frozen. This includes approximately $344 million in USDT stablecoins frozen by stablecoin issuer Tether in April, as well as other cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH.

He stated that before the US Treasury intervened, the Iranian regime was stealing $400-$500 million per month and distributing it to dozens of senior officials. "We are working with allies across Europe to seize various villas, houses, and properties," Bessent explained. "And this money is essentially stolen from the Iranian people." According to Bitcoin News analysis, Bessent gave a figure of "close to $500 million" when he first disclosed it in late April, but the latest figure on May 29 exceeded the $1 billion mark, indicating a continuous escalation in enforcement intensity for the operation named "Operation Economic Fury."

It is worth noting that according to Wikipedia, the US also previously seized a skyscraper in Manhattan owned by the Iranian government (worth over $1 billion) and its accumulated rent (approximately $50 million).

Additionally, according to the latest media reports, the US is considering using frozen Iranian assets to fund the reconstruction and repair of Gulf states affected by the "US-Israel-Iran conflict." Sources familiar with the matter say US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has instructed relevant teams to assess the damage caused by Iran to Gulf allies. Furthermore, the US is also considering using frozen Iranian assets to cover potential future losses.

Based on the above information, although Trump stated last night that they are "very close to reaching a very good, strong, and powerful agreement," a reconciliation between the US, Israel, and Iran remains unlikely until the issues of reparations and the handling of frozen assets are resolved.

As for the impact on crypto assets, it is limited to the macro-level influence on the overall crypto market trend, with a relatively small impact on market dumping of specific coins like BTC and ETH.

In the coming period, although both sides hope to end the conflict quickly, constrained by conflicting interests and the international situation, a cycle of "talking while fighting, fighting while talking" may remain the norm for the US, Iran, and even Israel.