失守7.5만, 비트코인, 마지막 하락 앞두나?

Original Author: Ma He, Foresight News

On May 28, Bitcoin price repeatedly tested the $75,000 level before ultimately breaking down, now slipping to around $74,000. ETH is oscillating around the $2,000 mark. Previously strong performers like NEAR, WLD, and ONDO have all seen corrections.

The current market Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 34, indicating a state of fear.

Coinglass data shows that total open interest liquidations across the entire network in the past 24 hours reached $470 million, with long liquidations accounting for $420 million.

Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has oscillated repeatedly within the $75,000-$80,000 range, briefly attempting to break above $78,000 but failing to hold. Over the last 30 days, BTC has declined 3.5%, ETH has dropped approximately 12%, and stablecoins have also retraced by 0.15%.

On the macroeconomic data front, Brent crude oil edged up to $97 per barrel, silver edged down to $73, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 182.60 points (+0.36%), hitting a record high. The S&P 500 index rose 1.24 points (+0.02%). The Nasdaq Composite Index stood at 26,674.73 points, up 18.55 points (+0.07%). Spot gold fell below $4,400 per ounce for the first time since March 27, dropping over $50 intraday, a decline of 1.25%.

US-Iran Conflict "Reignited"

Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have become another significant external variable. Since 2026, tensions between the US, Iran, and related parties over issues such as Iran's nuclear facilities and the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have alternated between escalation and de-escalation. In recent months, the US has pursued a strategy combining military action with diplomatic pressure, accompanied by rounds of airstrikes, rumors of port blockades, and repeated ceasefire negotiations.

Even during periods of ceasefire or diplomatic progress, the market's pricing of the risk of "reignition" has not fully dissipated.

In the early hours of May 28, US President Trump stated that the US would continue to control Iran's assets. Iran has started providing what we want. If things don't go well, US Defense Secretary Hegseth will complete the job. We could end the war with Iran quickly, and we might have to do so. But I don't think we need to.

Around 5:00 AM Beijing time, according to Iranian media Fars News, local residents reported hearing explosions near Bandar Abbas port in southern Iran.

A US official told Reuters that the US military had carried out new strikes on an Iranian military base that posed a threat to US forces and commercial navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The US military also intercepted and shot down several Iranian drones that posed a threat to US forces and commercial maritime traffic.

Tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have once again become a focal point, leading to increased oil price volatility and putting pressure on global risk assets. In this environment, Bitcoin is exhibiting more characteristics of a risk asset than the safe-haven function of a traditional "digital gold" – geopolitical uncertainty drives demand for the US dollar and US treasuries while suppressing risk appetite, leading to capital outflows from the crypto market.

ETF Net Outflows Reveal Institutional Profit-Taking

Since their launch in early 2024, US Bitcoin spot ETFs had accumulated net inflows exceeding $57 billion, becoming one of the main channels for institutional allocation to Bitcoin. However, starting in May 2026, the trend saw a clear reversal.

According to tracking data from SoSoValue, between May 5 and May 26, US Bitcoin ETFs recorded consecutive net outflows. Daily outflow sizes expanded from tens of millions of dollars to a maximum of $600 million, happening twice.

The situation for Ethereum spot ETFs is similarly concerning, mirroring Bitcoin with significant net outflows since the beginning of May.

This is likely not simply "panic selling," but rather a systematic realization of profits from earlier positions. ETF holders include traditional asset managers, family offices, and hedge funds. After Bitcoin recovered from its lows to the $75,000-$80,000 range, they chose to lock in profits through the redemption mechanism. Some of this capital may have rotated into stronger-performing AI-related tech stocks, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices hit new highs simultaneously, while the crypto market underperformed overall, highlighting a reallocation of funds among risk assets.

Future Outlook

Wintermute stated in a post that the consecutive two weeks of over $1 billion in BTC ETF outflows (following six weeks of inflows) suggest institutions are capitalizing on the strong trend to take profits on recent gains. More noteworthy is AI. Nvidia delivered a textbook earnings beat, yet saw almost no post-market price movement. Incremental outperformance no longer moves the needle. If the AI momentum fades, the macro picture (record low consumer confidence, sticky inflation, Powell's hawkish Fed stance) will gain more weight, and cryptocurrencies will not be immune.

BTC's long-term structure remains intact (reserves at multi-year lows, long-term holders accumulating steadily, CLARITY progressing, HYPE doing what major early-stage tokens should do). However, short-term capital flows drive price, and they are currently negative. The $75,000 to $76,000 range is a key line for BTC. Holding this level could see BTC retest $80,000; breaking below could lead to a rapid slide toward $70,000 to $72,000.

Glassnode tweeted that at a price of $76,000, approximately 7.75 million BTC are in an unrealized loss state. This supply overhang is a structural characteristic of bear markets, typically resolved only when weak hands surrender.

BIT tweeted that, for Bitcoin, the sustained rally over the past period has largely depended on the interplay between institutional demand and marketable supply. Over the past year, Bitcoin spot ETFs and Strategy have been significant sources of this demand. When ETF inflows accelerated and Strategy continued to add to its Bitcoin holdings, BTC prices typically trended higher.

BIT noted that the combined net purchases by ETFs and Strategy have now fallen to just $870 million, primarily due to significant outflows from ETFs, shifting them from net buyers to net sellers. Until ETF inflows stabilize and recover, Bitcoin is likely to remain in a consolidation/sideways pattern in the short term.

Analyst Murphy stated that by observing the on-chain metric "Weight of Short-Term Capital on-Chain Activity" (i.e., the proportion of USD value carried by short-term coin turnover), one can gauge the current state of the BTC market. This metric reflects recent short-term trading behaviors like speculation, arbitrage, profit-taking, or panic selling. Currently, this weight has dropped to historically extremely low levels, seen only in the deepest areas of bear markets over the past 15 years. This implies a significant cooldown in short-term turnover, with economic value shifting towards longer-term holdings, indicating a phase of low volatility, accumulation, or clear bottoming characteristics.

Murphy assesses that based on this, the current market could be in one of three phases: a bear market bottom; a secondary bottom, potentially with one more leg down; or accumulation before a bull run begins. However, rational judgment suggests the pre-bull run accumulation scenario can be tentatively ruled out. He does not recommend going all-in on a single scenario currently, advising a diversified position strategy to prepare for different outcomes. The relative position on the long-term direction suggests Bitcoin is near a bottom.