对冲基金一季度解读：每个人都在抛软件，买芯片
- 核心观点：2025年第一季度，美国对冲基金与大型共同基金在科技板块内部达成罕见共识，系统性抛售软件股并显著涌入半导体板块，将半导体在对冲基金多头组合中的权重推至历史最高水平，同时市场多空博弈同步加剧。
- 关键要素：
- 半导体在对冲基金多头组合中的权重创历史新高，而软件权重降至2019年以来最低；共同基金软件持仓降至2012年最低。
- 一季度对冲基金回报率达7%，但仅30%大型共同基金跑赢基准；对冲基金净杠杆回升至近一年高位，标普500卖空比例升至2011年以来最高的3%。
- 个股层面，微软成为两类机构上季度净减持规模最大的股票之一；对冲基金净增持LRCX、AMAT、ASML，共同基金增持INTC和SITM。
- 策略分化：对冲基金在二季度迅速加仓，而共同基金选择将现金占比从历史低点1.1%上调至1.4%，但仍处极低水平。
- 板块共识与分歧：两类机构均超配工业、低配信息技术，但调仓方向相反；对冲基金大幅提升信息技术净倾斜度，共同基金则削减。
Original Author: Zhao Ying
Original Source: Wall Street News
In the first quarter, US hedge funds and large mutual funds reached a rare consensus: dumping software stocks and flooding into semiconductors, pushing the weight of semiconductor longs to an all-time high.
According to Goldman Sachs' latest "Hedge Fund Trend Monitor" and "Mutual Fund Fundamentals" reports, this analysis covers 1,059 hedge funds (with total equity holdings of $4.6 trillion) and 509 large active mutual funds (with equity assets of $3.9 trillion).
The report shows that hedge funds have achieved a return of 7% so far this year, while only 30% of large mutual funds have outperformed their benchmarks, below the historical average of 37% since 2007.
US first-quarter 13F filings reveal a clear market consensus: hedge funds and mutual funds are simultaneously selling software stocks and moving into semiconductors. The scale of this sector rotation is so significant that it has pushed the weighting of semiconductors in hedge fund long portfolios to an all-time high.
In terms of positioning structure, hedge fund net leverage has rebounded to the 85th percentile of the past five years, standing near a one-year high. Meanwhile, the average short interest in S&P 500 constituents has risen to 3% of market capitalization, the highest level since 2011, indicating that long-short market bets are heating up simultaneously.
Semiconductor Positions Hit Record High, Software Faces Systemic Reduction
The structural rotation within the technology sector was the most prominent theme of the quarter.
Goldman Sachs data shows that the weighting of semiconductors in hedge fund long portfolios has risen to an all-time high, while the weighting of software has fallen to its lowest since 2019. For mutual funds, software positions dropped to their lowest level since 2012. Excluding Microsoft, mutual funds' overweight in semiconductors relative to software was also the largest since 2012.
At the individual stock level, Microsoft (MSFT) was among the stocks with the largest net reductions by both hedge funds and mutual funds last quarter. Mutual funds also broadly reduced positions in the other members of the "Magnificent Seven". While hedge funds reduced holdings in most of the "Magnificent Seven," they achieved net increases in META and AAPL.
Regarding semiconductor stocks, hedge funds net bought LRCX, AMAT, and ASML; mutual funds net bought INTC and SITM.
Leverage and Cash: Hedge Funds Aggressive, Mutual Funds Conservative
Facing heightened geopolitical tensions in the first quarter, the response strategies of the two types of institutions showed clear divergence.
Hedge funds initially cut net leverage but quickly added positions as the market rebounded in the second quarter. Net exposure has returned to near one-year highs, while gross leverage remains in a relatively elevated range compared to historical levels.
Mutual funds, on the other hand, chose to increase cash allocations, raising the cash-to-assets ratio from a historical low of 1.1% in early 2026 to 1.4% by early April.
Despite this, this level remains extremely low historically, indicating that mutual funds have not broadly exited the equity market.
Sector Consensus and Divergence: Overweight Industrials, Tech Diverges
In terms of sector allocation, there is a high degree of consensus between the two types of institutions, though with notable exceptions. Both hedge funds and mutual funds are overweight the industrial sector and underweight the information technology sector, but their trading directions are completely opposite.
Hedge funds increased their net tilt towards information technology by 853 basis points in the first quarter, the largest single-quarter change on record for the sector, while reducing their net tilt towards industrials by 297 basis points.
Mutual funds did the opposite, increasing their industrial exposure by 24 basis points and cutting information technology by 20 basis points.
The two sectors with the most prominent divergence are financials and consumer discretionary: mutual funds are overweight financials while hedge funds are underweight; hedge funds are overweight consumer discretionary while mutual funds are underweight.
Four "Common Favorites" Outperform the Market Year-to-Date
This quarter, Goldman Sachs screened four "Common Favorites" that appear on both the hedge fund VIP list (GSTHHVIP) and the mutual fund overweight list (GSTHMFOW): Boeing (BA), Mastercard (MA), Marvell Technology (MRVL), and Visa (V). Among them, MRVL is a new entrant this quarter, while Citigroup (C) and Vertiv (VRT) exited the list.
These four stocks have achieved a year-to-date return of 10%, outperforming the equal-weight S&P 500 index by 3 percentage points.
Looking at a longer timeframe, since 2013, the "Common Favorites" portfolio has an annualized return of 16%, but with a high standard deviation of 22%, indicating significantly elevated volatility. Currently, the median stock in this portfolio has a P/E ratio of 34 times, a notable premium compared to the median S&P 500 stock's P/E ratio of 18 times.
It is worth noting that all members of the "Magnificent Seven" are on the hedge fund VIP list, but they are all underweighted by mutual funds, highlighting a stark contrast in attitudes towards these core assets between the two types of institutions.
