BitMart 연구소 주간 핵심: 거시경제, 원유, AI 기술주 및 암호화폐 시장 전반 리뷰
- 핵심 관점: 거시적 측면에서 미국 고용 데이터는 구조적 차별화와 모델 조정에 의한 왜곡을 보이며, AI가 고용에 미치는 충격은 아직 체계적으로 나타나지 않았습니다. 원유 재고는 유가를 지지하지만 수요는 억제되고 있으며, 중국의 안정화 역할이 두드러집니다. 암호화폐 시장은 대형 시장의 위험 선호도 회복에 힘입어 온건한 상승세를 보이고 있으며, 기관 매수는 신중한 수준이며, 동시에 스테이블코인 발행은 기관 자체 공개 체인 트렌드에 이중 궤도 평가 차익 거래 모범을 제시하고 있습니다.
- 핵심 요소:
- 미국 4월 비농업 고용은 11만 5천 명 증가했지만, 증가세가 의료(61만 8천 명 증가)에 심각하게 의존하고 '기업 출생/사망 모델'에 의한 약 39만 1천 명의 긍정적 조정을 받았으며, 가계 조사에서는 고용이 22만 6천 명 감소한 것으로 나타나 데이터 신뢰성에 의문이 제기되었습니다.
- 전 세계 원유 완충 재고는 약 3억 배럴이 소비되어 약 8억 배럴 수준이며, 이는 유가를 100달러 부근에서 지지합니다. 그러나 높은 유가는 수요를 억제하며, 중국의 4월 일평균 원유 수입은 약 350만 배럴 감소하여 재고 보충 지연이 공급 과잉을 완화시켰습니다.
- AI 기술주는 단기적으로 스페이스X의 잠재적 상장에 따른 지수 가중치 조정 압력(엔비디아 등 선두주자 매도 가능성)에 직면하고, 중기적으로 실적 시즌은 AI의 투입 대비 산출 비율과 상업화 효율성을 검증할 것이며, 연말에는 IPO와 대선으로 인해 거품 압력 테스트에 직면할 수 있습니다.
- 암호화폐 시장에서 BTC 가격은 7만 7천 달러에서 8만 2천 달러로 상승했으며, 현물 측면에서 적극적인 매수 의지가 강하고(CVD 지표 강세), 무기한 선물 자금 조달 비율은 여전히 마이너스를 기록하여 일부 자금이 알트코인 또는 ETH에 대해 지속적으로 공매도하고 있음을 보여줍니다.
- 지난주 ETF 순유입은 약 7억 9,100만 달러였지만, 기관 매수 강도는 온건했습니다. BMBMR은 약 2만 6천 ETH를 매수하여 예상치 7만 개에 미치지 못했고, Strategy는 8만 달러 평균 가격에 단 535 BTC만 매수했습니다.
- 서클(Circle)의 자체 공개 체인 ARC는 30억 달러 가치 평가로 자금을 조달했으며, 업계 내 '상장 + 코인/체인 발행' 이중 궤도 차익 거래 모델이 명확해졌습니다. 스테이블코인, 결제 네트워크 및 기관 자체 체인은 다음 단계의 구조적 기회가 될 수 있습니다.
1. Macro Economy and Traditional Financial Markets (Macro)
1.1 US Employment Data and AI's Impact on Jobs
Non-farm payrolls added 115,000 jobs in April, which is superficially above expectations, but the market has doubts about the data quality. Job growth is heavily dependent on the healthcare sector, which added approximately 618,000 jobs over the past year, while other sectors collectively lost about 367,000 jobs. Manufacturing employment also turned negative for the first time this year, indicating increasing structural divergence in the job market.
The stronger-than-expected April non-farm data was significantly influenced by the "business birth/death model." This model provided a positive adjustment of about 391,000 jobs in April, suggesting that some of the new jobs were more estimates from the model rather than results from actual surveys. In contrast, the household survey indicated a decrease of approximately 226,000 in actual employment for April. This clear divergence has deepened the market's skepticism regarding the reliability of the employment data.
The impact of AI on employment is beginning to draw attention. Information sector jobs decreased by about 30,000 in April, and have been declining consistently this year, sparking discussions about "AI replacing jobs." However, the US unemployment rate remains around 4.3%, making it difficult to determine if AI has yet caused a systemic shock to the overall labor market. Future observation is needed to see if new demand can absorb the displaced workers.
1.2 Oil Market and Geopolitics
Oil prices have recently stabilized around the $100 mark. Global available crude oil buffer inventory stands at about 800 million barrels, with approximately 300 million barrels already consumed by the end of April, providing support for oil prices from the inventory side. However, high oil prices are also clearly suppressing demand, with global daily oil demand decreasing by approximately 2.8 million barrels and 4.3 million barrels in March and April, respectively.
China is acting as a "stabilizer" in the current oil price trend. China's current crude oil reserves are about 1.4 billion barrels. It significantly cut crude oil imports in April, reducing daily imports by about 3.5 million barrels to a low point since 2024. China's pause or slowdown in replenishing reserves has, to some extent, alleviated the tight global supply-demand balance for crude oil and curbed further upward pressure on prices.
Regarding US-Iran relations, the probability of both parties reaching a phased memorandum agreement this month is relatively high. The core likely revolves around maintaining the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, reducing conflict risk, and curbing oil prices. In the short term, maintaining a controllable situation and preventing oil prices from spiraling out of control serves the interests of both parties.
1.3 Short, Medium, and Long-Term Outlook for AI Tech Stocks
In the short term, AI tech stocks face mixed factors. Positive factors include a potential marginal easing of US-China trade relations and a possible improvement in market risk appetite if the US and Iran reach a phased agreement. Negative factors stem from potential index weighting adjustments. If SpaceX goes public in June and is included in the Nasdaq 100 index, passive funds might need to sell off top-five weighted tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft to free up weight, creating temporary liquidity pressure on AI leaders. However, lower-ranked component stocks like Micron (MU) could benefit.
In the medium term, the earnings season in mid-July will be a crucial validation point for AI tech stocks. The market's valuation framework for AI stocks is entering a "second half," shifting from being driven by thematic narratives towards a greater focus on AI ROI, commercialization efficiency per unit cost, and actual profitability.
In the long term, the end of the year could become a significant test phase for the AI bubble. The US elections may introduce policy disruptions. If trillion-dollar valuation AI application companies like OpenAI or Anthropic initiate IPOs, it could drain liquidity from the secondary market. Concurrently, if corporate capital expenditures consistently exceed their own cash flow and rely on debt financing, AI stocks could enter the late stage of a bubble and face a stress test similar to the late internet bubble era.
2. Crypto Market Trends and Ecosystem
2.1 Market Snapshot and Trading Data
The crypto market has recently primarily been driven by a recovery in broad market risk appetite, showing a general trend of modest bullishness. BTC price has risen from about $77,000 last week to around $82,000. Although spot trading volume has rebounded somewhat, it remains at relatively low levels. The CVD indicator is performing strongly, suggesting clear active buying intent on the spot side, with buying power dominating.
On the derivatives side, open interest has increased alongside the price rise. However, the perpetual contract funding rate remains negative, indicating that some funds in the market continue to short, primarily concentrated in altcoins or ETH. In the options market, investor willingness to buy Puts as downside protection has decreased, bearish demand has fallen, and bullish sentiment has spread. The overall structure suggests this rally may have progressed from its early stage into its middle phase, but attention is still needed on whether subsequent trading volume can increase.
Regarding large capital flows, ETFs continued to see net inflows last week, totaling approximately $791 million. BMBMR bought around 26,000 ETH, which is below the market's previously expected baseline of 70,000. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) made a small purchase of 535 BTC at an average buying price near $80,000. Overall, institutional buying momentum persists but is more moderate than anticipated.
2.2 Stablecoins and Institutional Chain-Launching Trend
Circle's recent financial reports showed revenue falling short of expectations, but its stock price performance has been relatively resilient, indicating the market still recognizes its long-term narrative. Simultaneously, Circle's self-built public chain, ARC, achieved a valuation of approximately $3 billion in funding, further clarifying the trend of stablecoin issuers extending into underlying infrastructure.
A "dual-track arbitrage model" of "listing + token/chain launch" is forming within the industry. On one hand, projects gain compliant status, access to traditional capital market funds, and credit endorsement by listing through a traditional entity. On the other hand, they build a public chain and issue tokens through another entity to capture crypto market liquidity, benefiting from a dual valuation premium from both equity and tokens.
Circle has provided a relatively clear demonstration effect. Subsequently, other projects with a user base, payment scenarios, or social ecosystems may follow a similar path. For example, projects within the Telegram ecosystem, PM, and others have an increasing probability of capturing on-chain liquidity in the future by launching their own chains or tokens. Stablecoins, payment networks, and institution-built chains could become significant structural opportunities for the crypto market in the next phase.
This article is for market analysis purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment carries high risk. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance and strictly implement risk management before trading.
