BIT Investment Research: Multiple Signals Simultaneously Turn Bullish – Has Bitcoin's Repair Rally Already Started?

In our previous two reports, we suggested that the bear market phase for Bitcoin might be nearing its end. Now, as the price reclaims key technical levels, multiple indicators—including the trend model, the 21-week moving average, and on-chain capital flows—are showing signs of convergence, gradually increasing market confidence in this assessment. Meanwhile, the $73,000 level has been a significant watershed since March 2024 and remains the crucial threshold to confirm a potential trend reversal.

From a price structure perspective, Bitcoin has reclaimed its 21-week moving average, a level with key significance in the framework for determining bull/bear markets. Simultaneously, the monthly RSI and weekly stochastic oscillator are both in ranges historically associated with bottoming zones, further reinforcing the view that the market is transitioning from a cyclical bottom to a phase of recovery. Although short-term macro variables could still cause fluctuations, against the backdrop of improving technical conditions, Bitcoin's price action is beginning to show structural characteristics of transitioning from a "bounce" to "trend repair".

Technical Signal Convergence: Key Moving Average and Trend Model Point to Recovery Phase

Currently, Bitcoin's price has reclaimed the 21-week moving average. Historically, this signal has often served as a key confirmation for entering a new upward cycle. If the weekly close can stabilize above this level, the market will likely transition from a phase of consolidation and recovery to a trending uptrend.

Historical backtesting shows that the 21-week moving average is not only effective in identifying trend reversals but also helped investors avoid significant drawdowns during the 2021/2022 bear market. In the current cycle, if the price can confirm support in the $78,000–$79,000 range, this indicator might trigger an entry signal once again.

In addition, the trend model has turned bullish. Given Bitcoin's characteristic strong trends and high volatility, the current trend has stronger conditions for persistence following the previous instances of signal whipsaws. The simultaneous strengthening of multiple technical indicators across different timeframes makes the current market environment more akin to the critical historical phase of recovery from a bottom.

Accelerating Capital Flow Repair: Multi-Channel Inflows Support Market Structure Improvement

Alongside the strengthening technical picture, changes in capital flows are further reinforcing this trend. Since April, combined inflows from stablecoins, Bitcoin ETFs, futures leverage, and Strategy purchases have brought back approximately $18.7 billion, pushing overall capital inflows to their highest levels since July 2025.

On-chain data also indicates that after an earlier outflow of roughly $25 billion, market capital flows have begun to warm up, with the pace of recovery noticeably faster than in the 2022 cycle. This suggests that the market structure is rebalancing more quickly following this correction.

Notably, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to raise capital and buy Bitcoin through the STRC instrument. This year, its cumulative financing has reached approximately $11 billion, providing steady buying support for the market. As long as the STRC spread remains within a reasonable range, this financing mechanism can operate sustainably, continuously converting into new demand. Capital repatriation is no longer reliant on a single channel but stems from synchronized improvements across multiple dimensions. This reduces the probability of another significant Bitcoin price drop and lays the foundation for a subsequent push towards the $88,000 target range.

Overall, Bitcoin is currently in a critical phase of transitioning from "technical repair" to "capital-driven recovery". Multiple indicators, including the trend model, the 21-week moving average, RSI, and on-chain capital flows, are forming a convergence. Historically, such signals have often corresponded with windows where a cyclical bounce evolves into a trending recovery. Simultaneously, the improvement in capital flows is materializing faster and from more diverse sources, making the market structure more robust compared to previous cycles.

However, macro variables could still cause periodic disruptions. For example, uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's policy path or changes in the STRC spread could impact short-term momentum. A sharp, unilateral rally for Bitcoin is unlikely; instead, we anticipate a gradual climb amidst ongoing volatility. Nevertheless, based on the current combination of technical and capital flow conditions, the market direction has become clearer than before, and the trend recovery is progressively unfolding.

Some of the above views are from BIT on Target, contact us to get the full BIT on Target report.

Disclaimer: Market conditions carry risks. Investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets can involve substantial risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of individual circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.