The indefinite extension of the ceasefire raises the question: how long will the U.S.-Iran conflict remain in a tug-of-war?
- Core Viewpoint: The Trump administration has indefinitely extended the U.S.-Iran ceasefire while maintaining a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. It is attempting to force Iran into concessions on the nuclear issue through a composite pressure strategy of "fighting without waging war." However, Iran has firmly refused to resume negotiations under blockade, leaving both sides in a temporary but highly fragile stalemate.
- Key Elements:
- Strategy Mix: The U.S. adopts a parallel approach of "extending the ceasefire" and "maintaining the blockade," aiming to avoid a full-scale war while continuously suppressing Iran's energy exports and nuclear program.
- Iran's Position: Iran denies requesting an extension of the ceasefire, declares it will not open the Strait as long as the blockade continues, and emphasizes it will not negotiate under threat. The core demands of both sides are severely opposed.
- Market Spillover Effects: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has exacerbated global oil price volatility. Brent crude oil prices once rose to approximately $98 per barrel. The U.S.-Iran standoff has already significantly impacted the global energy supply chain.
- Negotiation Breakdown: The second round of talks originally scheduled for Pakistan fell through due to Iran's refusal to attend. The U.S. demands that Iran abandon its nuclear program, while Iran considers these demands "unacceptable."
- Escalation of Military Standoff: The Iranian military claims to be in a state of full combat readiness, and at least 34 Iranian oil tankers have broken through the blockade. The UK and France are convening multiple nations to coordinate efforts to keep the Strait open, with all parties in the game continuously raising the stakes.
- Fragility Assessment: Experts believe that Trump's high-pressure strategy has placed him in a strategic dilemma. This passive "ceasefire," lacking mutual trust, is a fragile balance that could be broken at any time.
Original title: Trump Extends Iran Ceasefire, Blockade as Peace Talks Stumble
Original author: Courtney Subramanian and Jennifer A Dlouhy, Bloomberg
Original translation: Peggy, BlockBeats
Editor's note: US President Donald Trump, just before the ceasefire agreement was set to expire, announced an indefinite extension of the truce with Iran while maintaining the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stated that the US would extend the ceasefire until Iran submits a new proposal, "and no matter what happens, until the talks conclude." He also emphasized that without this blockade, "no deal would be possible with Iran."
From a strategic perspective, the US is attempting to use a combination of "extending the ceasefire and maintaining the blockade" to avoid an immediate escalation into full-scale war while continuing to pressure Iran into making concessions on the nuclear issue and negotiation terms. However, Iran has neither accepted the negotiation conditions nor requested an extension of the ceasefire. Instead, it has maintained a hardline stance on energy exports and military posture, leading to a stalemate between the two sides on the core issues of "whether to negotiate and how to negotiate."
More notably, this standoff has begun to spill over into global markets. The blockade and intermittent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy transport, has not only exacerbated oil price volatility but also amplified uncertainty within the energy and shipping systems. In the short term, the ceasefire extension provides some buffer for the markets. However, in the medium to long term, without a clear negotiation framework and basic mutual trust, this passively extended ceasefire resembles a fragile balance that could be broken at any moment.
As diplomatic channels remain blocked and military deterrence intensifies, the next phase of this conflict will depend on whether the two sides return to the negotiating table or slide into more intense confrontation.
Below is the original text:
US President Donald Trump, just before the ceasefire agreement was set to expire, announced an indefinite extension of the truce with Iran. At the same time, the US maintained its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after the planned peace talks between the two sides fell through.
Trump stated on his social media platform Truth Social that Pakistan, acting as a mediator, had requested the US to postpone a new round of strikes. The US would extend the ceasefire until Iran submits a new proposal, and "no matter what happens, until the talks conclude." In another post, he said that without this blockade, "no deal would be possible with Iran—unless we blow up the rest of their country, including their leaders!"
US Vice President JD Vance had planned to travel to Pakistan to restart negotiations with Iran, but Tehran's representatives refused to attend, stating that the conditions proposed by the US were "unacceptable." Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency reported that there is currently "no realistic possibility" for Iran to participate in negotiations.
A White House official confirmed in a statement that the Vice President's planned trip for Tuesday would not proceed.
This statement stands in stark contrast to Trump's earlier comments that same day. During an interview with CNBC, he said that if Iran did not meet his conditions, "I expect there will be bombing," and claimed the US military is "ready and can act at any time." In a phone interview on Monday, Trump also stated that he was "very unlikely to extend" the current ceasefire if an agreement was not reached.
Driven by the news of the ceasefire extension, oil prices rose for a second consecutive day. Brent crude oil was trading around $98 per barrel after gaining nearly 9% over the previous two trading sessions. Oil prices were below $60 in January this year but peaked at $119.50 in March. The average retail price for gasoline in the US is currently around $4 per gallon, compared to about $3 just before the war began on February 28.
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif thanked Trump in a statement for extending the ceasefire, "buying time for the ongoing diplomatic efforts to proceed smoothly."
James F. Jeffrey, former US Deputy National Security Advisor and current distinguished fellow at the Washington Institute, appeared on Bloomberg Businessweek Daily to discuss the ceasefire extension, speaking with hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec.
He posted on X: "I sincerely hope both sides will continue to adhere to the ceasefire and reach a comprehensive 'peace agreement' in the second round of talks in Islamabad, leading to a permanent end to the conflict."
Senior Iranian officials had not responded to Donald Trump's statement as of late evening Tehran time. Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency, citing unnamed sources, reported that Iran did not request an extension of the ceasefire. Meanwhile, the agency stated that Iran would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz as long as the US maintains the naval blockade.
Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency, citing a military statement, reported that Iran's armed forces are "in a state of full combat readiness, with fingers on the trigger."
Security personnel guard a checkpoint near the Serena Hotel in Islamabad on April 22. Photographer: Aamir Qureshi / AFP / Getty Images.
These developments mark the latest back-and-forth between Washington and Tehran since the two sides announced a two-week ceasefire on April 7. Since then, they have been publicly arguing over the terms of the agreement and alternately closing and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas exports were transported through this strait.
According to data intelligence firm Vortexa, at least two fully loaded Iranian oil tankers have sailed out of the Persian Gulf this week, breaking through the US blockade. The company's data also shows that Iran still has the capacity to export oil, with at least 34 Iran-linked oil tankers and gas carriers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, navigating past the naval blockade.
The British Navy stated on Wednesday that an Iranian patrol boat fired at a container ship near the Strait of Hormuz, causing "severe damage" to its bridge, though no casualties were reported.
US Senator Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat from Massachusetts, criticized President Donald Trump for lacking a clear strategy regarding the conflict with Iran. Warren shared her views on the program Balance of Power: Evening Edition.
Britain and France are convening a two-day summit of military planners from over 30 countries to discuss how to ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have been leading efforts to coordinate a plan to keep the strait open after the Iran war ends, though they have rejected Trump's request for allies to forcefully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Following the initial ceasefire announcement, there was a round of negotiations between the US and Iran, but it ended in failure. US officials stated that Iran was unwilling to accept restrictions on its nuclear program, while Iran said the US had presented a series of unacceptable demands.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Source: AFP / Getty Images
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led the Tehran delegation in the first round of talks, stated on Monday that Iran would not "accept negotiations under the shadow of threats."
Although the ceasefire extension may temporarily soothe investor sentiment, the path to a lasting agreement to end the war remains fraught with uncertainty. The conflict, now in its eighth week, has resulted in thousands of deaths and triggered a global energy crisis, increasing pressure on both sides to find an "exit strategy."
Donald Trump demands that Iran abandon any attempts to develop nuclear weapons and hand over its nuclear materials. Tehran denies such intentions and refuses to hand over its enriched uranium.
Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said Trump has somewhat "painted himself into a corner" because he doesn't actually want a return to military conflict.
"He made a strategic mistake in thinking that raising his voice and increasing pressure on Iranians would work," Vatanka said. "That approach doesn't work with this regime. Quiet pressure is often more effective than public pressure."
