Bitcoin falls below $65,000: Fed meeting looms, Strategy structural concerns and leverage risks converge

Odaily Planet Daily reported that Bitcoin continues to face pressure amid macroeconomic uncertainty and institutional investor caution, hovering around $64,500, down approximately 2% intraday. The market is awaiting the outcome of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, chaired for the first time by Kevin Warsh, with broad expectations for rates to remain unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% range.

Analysts point out that the focus of this meeting has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "policy path and inflation signals." Current U.S. inflation is considered to remain near three-year highs, and changes in energy prices and geopolitical situations have kept the market cautious about the future policy direction.

Pressure is also emerging simultaneously at the on-chain and institutional levels. Structural concerns surrounding Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continue to ferment, with its preferred stock STRC falling to $91.79 on June 16, more than 8% below its $100 par value, seen as a signal of weakening corporate Bitcoin buying momentum.

Although spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $10.1 million on June 16, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing the bulk of the increase, the capital scale remains significantly lower than in previous periods, indicating limited buying power.

Market research firms Bitfinex and QCP noted that Bitcoin's recent rebound appears more like a "technical recovery driven by exhausted selling pressure" rather than being fueled by new demand. In the derivatives market, rising implied volatility in options and a skew towards put protection suggest traders are pricing in tail risks.

In terms of price structure, Bitcoin is seen in the short term as oscillating within a $60,000 to $68,000 range. If the Fed signals a hawkish stance or institutional buying weakens further, it could retrace to the $62,000–$63,000 range.

Overall, the current market presents a combination structure of "macro anticipation + marginal institutional weakness + enhanced derivatives defense," with the short-term direction still dependent on FOMC policy signals and the return of ETF and corporate capital flows. (The Block)