Analyst: Bitcoin Has Recorded Net Losses for 22 Consecutive Days, Valuation Enters Historically Low Range

Odaily Planet Daily News CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin's price has retraced about 20% over the past month, with two key on-chain indicators showing sustained market sentiment pressure. Among them, Bitcoin's MVRV Z-score has dropped from 0.95 a month ago to 0.32, far below the historical average of 1.71, indicating that the previous valuation premium has been largely digested, and the market has entered a zone more conducive to long-term capital accumulation.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin's 7-day moving average Net Realized Profit/Loss has been in negative territory for 22 consecutive days, with the market consistently trading at a loss since May 18. The indicator hit a low of approximately -$1.2 billion on June 6 and has slightly recovered to around -$1.1 billion. Although market pressure is evident, it remains below the extreme levels of approximately -$2.2 billion seen during the capitulation phase of the 2022 bear market.

Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that a large number of holders are currently selling Bitcoin below their cost basis, reflecting obvious panic and capitulation sentiment in the market. However, the MVRV Z-score remaining above 0 means the market has not yet entered a deeply undervalued zone, nor has it reached historically significant value troughs.

He believes that, considering the two indicators together, while market sentiment is weak, valuations have clearly cooled. The focus moving forward should be on whether Net Realized Profit/Loss can return above the zero line and whether the MVRV Z-score maintains a positive value. If the MVRV Z-score falls below 0, or if realized losses approach the extreme levels of 2022 once again, it could signal the onset of a deeper market capitulation phase.