Institution: US employment growth may slow in April as temporary factors fade

Odaily Planet Daily News As the boost from temporary factors such as warmer weather and the return of striking healthcare workers fades, U.S. employment growth may slow in April, but this does not signify a substantial change in labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.3%. The data is also expected to show accelerated wage growth last month, which will further strengthen financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged until 2027. A Reuters survey shows that economists attribute part of the volatility in employment data to adjustments in this year's "birth-death model," which is used to estimate employment increases or decreases due to business openings or closures. Some say that high business turnover makes it difficult for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles the employment report, to estimate job creation related to new businesses. In addition, weather, strikes, government layoffs, and significant labor market fluctuations caused by the Trump administration's crackdown on illegal immigration have also exacerbated the volatility. Economists suggest referring to the three-month moving average of employment data to better understand labor market conditions. Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup, said averaging the data from recent months still shows moderate positive employment growth. Considering that significant changes in immigration flows have led to a sharp decline in average employment growth this year, this alone is not a cause for concern. (Jin Shi)