BTC が 60,000 ドルを割り込んだ後、再び 100,000 ドルに達することはできるのか？
- コア見解：2026年7月、ビットコインは上半期に約30%下落し6万ドルを割り込んだものの、スタンダード・チャータード銀行やBernsteinなどの主要機関は10万～15万ドルの年末目標価格を維持し、調整を買いの機会と捉えている。また、ETFの資金流出が主導する下落パターンが反転する可能性を指摘している。
- 重要要素：
- ビットコインは上半期で累計約30%下落し、6月のETF純流出額は過去最高の40.6億ドルに達した。価格は65,800ドルから59,000ドル付近まで下落した。
- スタンダード・チャータード銀行は年末の10万ドル目標を維持。今回の下落はETF流出、レバレッジ決済、個別の清算によるものであり、ファンダメンタルズの変化ではないと分析している。
- Bernsteinは15万ドルの目標価格を堅持。4年周期の崩壊を指摘し、機関投資家主導の長期強気相場が2027年のピークを20万ドル近くに押し上げると予想している。
- ETFの資金フローは3回の「急落-反発」サイクルパターンを示している。ヘッジファンドや証券会社はポジションを縮小する一方、銀行（JPモルガン、ウェルズ・ファーゴなど）やソブリン・ファンドは逆張りで買い増している。
- 重要なサポートラインは58,000～60,000ドル。これを下回ると55,000ドルまで下落する可能性がある。一方、65,800ドルを突破すれば、下落トレンドの終了を示唆する。
Bitcoin has just emerged from its toughest stretch since 2026, falling approximately 30% in the first half of the year and is potentially heading for a second consecutive quarterly decline, a scenario that has only occurred twice before in Bitcoin's history.
BTC fell from around $65,800 at the start of June to below $60,000 as July began. The decline was characterized by a slow grind lower throughout most of June, rather than a single-day crash.
However, during this downturn, Standard Chartered did something quite unusual.
Rather than lowering its Bitcoin price forecast for the third time this year, the bank maintained its year-end target of $100,000. Its chief analyst even called this drop a buying opportunity, not a warning signal.
This contrast—prices falling while a major bank refuses to waver—lies at the heart of this July 2026 Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction.
Below, we break down the signals currently being sent by Standard Chartered, Bernstein, and ETF flow data, and outline the key price levels to watch for the remainder of the month.
Key Takeaways
- As of July 1, 2026, Bitcoin was trading around $59,000, down approximately 30% in the first half of the year.
- Despite BTC falling below $60,000, Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick maintains his year-end 2026 target of $100,000, calling this pullback a buying opportunity.
- Bernstein holds a more optimistic year-end 2026 target of $150,000, last reaffirmed on March 24, 2026.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $4.06 billion in net outflows in June 2026, the largest single-month redemption figure since the funds launched in January 2024.
- This outflow represents the third such cycle in 2026, with similar reversals occurring in February and April. This pattern is as noteworthy as any single price target.
- Support is roughly situated around $58,000; a move back above ~$65,800 would suggest the downtrend may be ending.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction July 2026: Standard Chartered Refuses to Abandon $100k Target
Entering July, one of the most watched Bitcoin price predictions comes from Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick, the bank's Head of Digital Assets Research.
Even with the recent price drop below $60,000, he maintains his year-end BTC target of $100,000, and his reasoning is not based on vague optimism.
How a $300,000 Bitcoin Prediction Was Halved, Then Cut Again
Before looking directly at the $100,000 figure, it's important to understand that this target has survived two downward revisions this year already.
Standard Chartered started 2026 with a bolder $150,000 forecast, which itself was a significant reduction from the bank's even more aggressive $300,000 prediction made in 2025.
Kendrick's original thesis was built on two independent demand pillars: steady corporate treasury purchases modeled after Strategy's pioneering approach, and accelerating inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.
When corporate treasury buying slowed noticeably late last year, the bank lowered its target to $150,000, stating that future price gains would effectively depend solely on ETF buying.
Then, in February 2026, as ETF outflows accumulated early in the year, Kendrick again cut the target to $100,000, simultaneously warning that Bitcoin could first drift towards $50,000 before a real recovery.
Therefore, when this July 2026 Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction cites Standard Chartered's view, it's crucial to know that this figure has already withstood two bearish episodes and has not yet required a third downward adjustment.
Standard Chartered Calls This Crash a Gift, Not a Warning
Kendrick's rationale for holding his target during the June crash is quite specific, rather than just general bullishness.
He points out that the decline really stemmed from Bitcoin ETF outflows, forced liquidations related to over-leveraged positions, and a small-scale liquidation by a corporate holder—not a change in Bitcoin's underlying demand logic.
In his view, this combination of factors looks more like a temporary setback than the start of a prolonged bear market; he has publicly stated his view that a drop below $60,000 represents a buying opportunity.
The bank's long-term outlook has also barely changed. Standard Chartered still sees Bitcoin reaching $500,000 by 2030, though the path to get there is proving slower than initially envisioned.
Bitcoin's Current Position and Why It Just Experienced Its Worst Month of 2026
According to CoinMarketCap data, as of July 1, 2026, Bitcoin was trading just below $59,500.
Based on CoinGecko historical price data, this means BTC is down over 50% from its all-time high of $126,080 reached in October 2025.
Focusing only on the past month paints an even clearer picture.
BTC opened June near $65,800 and trended lower throughout the month. Multiple ETF flow reports indicate that for most of June, Bitcoin's price oscillated in the $58,000 to $60,000 range, ending closer to $59,000 as July began.
The main driver of this decline wasn't a Bitcoin-specific scandal or a new regulatory shock, but a wave of withdrawals from spot Bitcoin ETFs.
June became the worst month for ETF outflows since these products launched in the US in January 2024, extending a redemption trend that had already formed since mid-May.
It's important to provide context here: According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, cumulative net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs since their 2024 launch still stand at around $55 billion. While 2026 flows turned negative for the year during the May and June exodus, this looks more like a tough adjustment period than an institutional exodus.
Compounding this, with a general decline in risk appetite across financial markets and investors worrying that the Fed might keep interest rates higher for longer, BTC had little support to lean on for most of June.
None of this means Bitcoin's long-term trajectory has changed, but it does explain why so many traders are now eagerly seeking clear Bitcoin price predictions rather than just silently watching charts.
Bullish Scenario vs. Bearish Scenario: How High or How Low BTC Could Go Next
Not all Wall Street institutions share Standard Chartered's cautious reserve.
Bernstein actually moved in the opposite direction this year, raising its 2026 Bitcoin price target to $150,000, calling this year's downturn one of the mildest bearish scenarios in Bitcoin's history. The firm last reaffirmed this view on March 24, 2026, arguing that this time there hasn't been the systemic breakdown seen in past crypto winters.
Analysts at Bernstein, led by Gautam Chhugani, believe Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle linked to the halving schedule may be starting to break down, replaced by a longer, institution-led bull market. They predict a potential cycle peak near $200,000 in 2027 and a long-term target of around $1 million by 2033.
Zooming out even further, ARK Invest's own research estimates Bitcoin's market cap in a base case scenario at roughly $16 trillion by 2030. At current supply, this equates to roughly $750,000 to $800,000 per Bitcoin, driven largely by what the firm calls Bitcoin's expanding role as digital gold and institutional and sovereign adoption.
Simply put, the bullish scenario is: a near-term range of $100k to $150k by year-end, with much higher figures for the latter half of this decade.
The bearish scenario relies more on the charts themselves than any single analyst's model.
Support appears to hold around the $58,000 to $60,000 zone, which also aligns with the price range where Bitcoin traded for most of June, as reported by multiple ETF flow reports.
A confirmed break below this level could see prices drift towards $55,000. Conversely, reclaiming the ~$65,800 level where Bitcoin started June would be the clearest signal yet that the downtrend may be over.
In essence, this July 2026 Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction is not a single number but a range: a downside anchor around $55,000 and an upside potential towards $150,000 or higher, depending on which set of analysts you find more convincing.
Why Two Banks Looking at the Same Bitcoin Chart Can Differ by $50,000
To those new to crypto, it can be confusing that two major banks, looking at the same Bitcoin chart, can come to conclusions differing by $50,000 for the December price.
This gap usually comes down to which piece of the puzzle each analyst prioritizes.
Standard Chartered's model heavily weights ETF flow data, as Kendrick has stated that future Bitcoin price gains will effectively depend on this single channel after corporate treasury buying slowed.
Bernstein's model leans more on another viewpoint: Bitcoin's historical four-year boom-bust cycle linked to the halving schedule is no longer applicable now that institutions, rather than retail investors, drive the majority of trading.
Neither framework is necessarily wrong; they simply measure different signals. This is precisely why this July 2026 Bitcoin price prediction references multiple sources rather than picking one number and presenting it as a definitive answer.
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