HYPE为什么还在猛涨？到顶了吗？

Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Asher (@Asher_0210)

In the current crypto market, if there is one altcoin that can excite the market, it is likely HYPE.

Market data shows that HYPE's exchange rate against BTC and BNB has hit new all-time highs, with HYPE/BTC currently at 0.0006249 and HYPE/BNB at 0.075. This indicates that HYPE's strength is not merely following a market rebound, but is consistently outperforming major crypto assets like BTC and BNB.

Previously, the market's understanding of Hyperliquid was largely limited to a high-performance Perp DEX. However, capital is now clearly betting not just on a token for decentralized trading, but on Hyperliquid's ability to integrate more asset types, more liquidity, and more trading scenarios into a single on-chain trading system.

HYPE's price performance reflects the market's reassessment of Hyperliquid's value.

This article by Odaily Planet Daily will analyze the rationale behind its rise from several key developments.

From THYP to BHYP: Opening the Door for Compliant Buying of HYPE

The first external catalyst for HYPE's recent rise is the opening of the ETF channel.

Currently, two asset management institutions have launched ETF products centered around Hyperliquid. On May 12, 21Shares listed the Hyperliquid ETF under the ticker THYP. On May 15, Bitwise listed the Hyperliquid ETF under the ticker BHYP. Data shows that as of May 18 Eastern Time, the 21Shares Hyperliquid ETF (THYP) saw total net inflows of $12.901 million, while the Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF (BHYP) saw total net inflows of $2.0446 million.

More importantly, Bitwise didn't stop at just issuing an ETF. Yesterday, Bitwise announced it would allocate 10% of the management fee income from its BHYP Hyperliquid ETF to hold HYPE on its corporate balance sheet, with the HYPE holdings also being staked.

This transforms the ETF narrative from a mere product launch into a source of potential sustained buying pressure. The larger the ETF grows, the higher the management fee income, theoretically increasing the amount Bitwise could use to accumulate HYPE. While this capital may not immediately move prices in the short term, it structurally links ETF growth, institutional revenue, and HYPE holdings in the long run.

In other words, the ETF brings HYPE not just one-off hype, but a new capital channel. HYPE is beginning its transition from a purely crypto-native asset to an on-chain trading platform token that can be priced by traditional capital.

USDC Returns to Hyperliquid, Adding Over $400,000 in Potential Daily Buying Pressure for HYPE

The second reason for HYPE's recent rise is the market's recalculation of the protocol's future stable yield following the return of USDC to Hyperliquid, and whether this yield can continue to fuel HYPE buybacks.

According to an official announcement from Hyperliquid, Coinbase will act as a capital deployer, while Circle is responsible for deploying CCTP and native cross-chain infrastructure. Both parties have committed to staking HYPE to activate AQAv2. This means the return of USDC is not just a routine stablecoin integration, but a new mechanism established between Coinbase, Circle, and Hyperliquid centered around native USDC, cross-chain liquidity, and reserve yield distribution.

The key is that Coinbase will subsequently share most of the USDC reserve yield with the Hyperliquid protocol. Although the exact split ratio hasn't been officially announced, referencing the previous yield distribution mechanism for USDH, Hyperliquid might effectively receive around 90% of the reserve yield. Therefore, the market interprets AQAv2 as a protocol-level revenue-sharing mechanism built by Hyperliquid for USDC reserve yields.

According to community estimates, based on a $4.7 billion scale and a 3.8% annualized yield, the USDC reserve yield would correspond to roughly $160 million in annualized income, translating to approximately $440,000 in daily HYPE buyback pressure. Once the AQAv2 interface is fully developed and operational, Hyperliquid will no longer rely solely on trading fees for HYPE buybacks, potentially gaining a relatively stable source of cash flow.

This is the true impact of USDC's return on HYPE's pricing. Previously, HYPE's buyback intensity was primarily dependent on trading volume; the more active the trading, the higher the protocol revenue and buyback capability. However, with the addition of USDC reserve yields, HYPE's buyback source is no longer solely dependent on trading fees, but also on Hyperliquid's ability to attract and hold stablecoin liquidity. In other words, fee buybacks reflect platform trading activity, while USDC reserve yield buybacks reflect its capital absorption capacity. The market's repricing of HYPE might precisely stem from the observation that HYPE's buyback story no longer relies solely on trading momentum.

Hyperliquid Integrates HIP-4, Entering the Prediction Market Arena

Beyond RWA, Hyperliquid has also set its sights on one of the hottest sectors in crypto this year: prediction markets.

On May 2nd, Hyperliquid launched HIP-4 Outcome Markets on mainnet, initially offering BTC intraday binary outcome contracts. Simply put, users can trade on whether the BTC price will be above or below a specified price at a specific time. The contract price fluctuates between 0.001 and 0.999, reflecting the market's pricing of the probability of the event occurring. The contract settles at 1 if the event occurs and 0 if it does not.

Data from Predictefy shows that on the first day of HIP-4's launch, the trading volume for BTC price-related event contracts reached $6.15 million. Within this specific market segment alone, Hyperliquid's volume has already far surpassed similar markets on Kalshi, Polymarket, and other prediction platforms.

For HYPE, the significance of HIP-4 extends beyond just adding a product feature. It integrates the prediction market with HYPE's staking, fees, and buyback mechanisms. According to the design, for future permissionless deployment of prediction events, market creators must stake 1 million HYPE, which is higher than the 500,000 HYPE required for deploying perpetual markets under HIP-3. Each staking slot supports rolling and periodic markets, which can be reused after settlement. However, staked assets may be subject to slashing in cases of oracle manipulation, anomalous market states, or prolonged downtime.

Therefore, HIP-4 provides HYPE not just with the conceptual hype of prediction markets, but a more direct path for value capture. More permissionless prediction events mean more demand for HYPE staking, more trading volume means more fee revenue, and this fee revenue ultimately flows back into Hyperliquid's existing buyback logic.

RWA Open Interest Hits New High: Hyperliquid's Ceiling Extends Beyond Perp DEX

Beyond ETF and USDC yield recycling, RWA is pushing Hyperliquid's trading boundaries even further.

Data shows that the open interest for RWA trading on the Hyperliquid platform has surged to $2.6 billion, a new all-time high and double the level from two months ago. This data indicates that Hyperliquid is no longer just handling trading demand for crypto assets like BTC, ETH, and SOL; real-world assets are beginning to scale within its on-chain trading system.

This is crucial for HYPE's valuation. If Hyperliquid were merely a Perp DEX, its valuation would primarily be anchored to the crypto cycle, trading volume, and fee revenue. However, RWA opens up a different dimension, where stocks, commodities, precious metals, and pre-IPO assets can all become objects of 24/7 on-chain trading.

The significance of RWA for Hyperliquid isn't simply adding more trading pairs; it's about lifting the platform out of the competitive fray within the crypto market. Perp DEXs compete for a share of crypto trading volume, but RWA represents the competition to bring off-chain asset trading demand onto the chain. If Hyperliquid can consistently grow this market, HYPE's pricing will cease to follow only the crypto market's trading cycles and will begin to be tied to the larger demand for real asset trading.

US SEC Planning Exemption for Tokenized Stocks: RWA Adds Further Imagination

Potential regulatory easing by the US SEC regarding tokenized stocks is further raising Hyperliquid's long-term ceiling. Reports indicate that the US SEC is preparing an innovation exemption for tokenized stock trading, allowing tokens pegged to the stocks of publicly traded companies to be traded on crypto platforms. In some cases, the relevant platforms may not need to be fully registered as broker-dealers or exchanges, and tokenized stocks issued by third parties might not even require the listed company's consent.

For Hyperliquid, this doesn't mean starting from scratch with tokenized stocks. Instead, it adds regulatory imagination to the RWA direction it is already pursuing. On the Hyperliquid platform, trading in real-world assets like stocks and pre-IPO assets is already gaining scale, with RWA open interest reaching new highs. If US regulators truly open a testing window for tokenized stocks, the demand for such on-chain trading could be significantly amplified.

For Hyperliquid, clearer regulatory boundaries likely mean less friction for onboarding real-world assets onto the chain. And the entities best positioned to capture this incremental growth are often not single asset issuers, but platforms capable of hosting the order books, liquidity, and settlement. If tokenized stocks move from a grey-area experiment to compliant growth, Hyperliquid's already active RWA business could evolve from an early-stage attempt into the main battleground for the next phase of on-chain trading competition.

Fundamentals Are Strengthening, But Short-Term Price Enters a Battle Zone

The rationale behind HYPE's rise is becoming clearer. ETFs open the door for compliant capital, the return of USDC generates potential buyback increments, and RWA, prediction markets, and tokenized stocks continue to broaden Hyperliquid's trading boundaries. All these developments point in one direction: Hyperliquid is no longer just a Perp DEX, but is expanding into a larger on-chain trading system.

However, the validity of the long-term thesis does not mean short-term prices will appreciate in a straight line. According to on-chain data, HYPE is currently witnessing a large-scale confrontation between major long and short whales, with the top 1 and top 2 whale positions acting as counterparties, totaling over $60 million. The long side is betting on Hyperliquid's future growth potential, while the short side is betting on a pullback after a rapid short-term rally. As whale positions expand, HYPE's short-term price may be driven less by fundamentals and more by liquidations, funding rates, and market sentiment.

Therefore, the short-term price trajectory for HYPE is difficult to predict, likely depending on which side of the long-short battle is forced to capitulate first. However, over a longer timeframe, HYPE's fundamentals remain compelling. Hyperliquid is continuously expanding its trading assets, capital on-ramps, and revenue sources, while HYPE increasingly assumes a central role as a value-bearing asset through buybacks, staking, and fee capture.

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