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Nonfarm payrolls miss expectations, dampening rate hike expectations, US Treasury yields fall in response

2026-07-02 12:54

Odaily Planet Daily News: The weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report prompted traders to lower their expectations for Fed rate hikes in the coming months, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasuries. The two-year Treasury yield, most sensitive to policy changes, fell 6 basis points to 4.11%, while the 10-year yield fell 2 basis points to 4.46%.

Fed funds rate swaps show that traders now see about a 20% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's meeting later this month, down from 33% before the data release. The market has priced in fewer than two quarter-point rate hikes by March 2027. (Jinshi)