Weekly Editor's Picks (1003-1009)

郝方舟

Odaily资深作者

@OdailyChina

2026-10-10 10:58 (UTC+8)

This article is about 3821 words, reading the full article takes about 6 minutes

High-quality in-depth analysis articles and a roundup of the week's top stories.

AI Summary

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Core Viewpoint: A roughly 12% divergence gap has emerged between U.S. equity market breadth and the index, and the direction of convergence depends on the trajectory of U.S. Treasury volatility; the AI capital circulation network is accelerating its formation, while the crypto industry's regulatory landscape enters a new phase due to SEC personnel changes.
Key Elements:
1. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 5.34%, the highest since 2002, posting its steepest single-quarter gain in 32 years in Q3, and the S&P 500 may test the 6,800 to 7,300 range.
2. AI companies are investing in each other to form a circulation network of computing power, orders, and capital, with equity, loans, and long-term procurement commitments packaged into a single transaction.
3. "Crypto Mom" Hester Peirce has stepped down as SEC Commissioner, leaving the SEC with two commissioners, while multiple workstreams including token issuance rules and custody rules remain in progress.
4. OKX has filed an application targeting the SEC's innovation exemption channel, but new rules require tokenized stocks to carry real dividends and voting rights, and offshore synthetic products do not qualify.
5. Of the top 100 tokens by market cap in 2021, only 8 reached new market cap highs in 2025; the market cap ratio of Meme coins to altcoins has fallen to a historic low of 0.027.
6. BitMine's Ethereum holdings are approaching the 5% cap, and staking-generated tokens pose a challenge to the hard cap, potentially requiring the sale of some ETH to maintain the ratio.

The information feed moves too fast, and in-depth analysis articles are easily drowned out by hot topics. The "Weekly Editor's Picks" column pulls content with judgment value out of the flood of information, helping you filter out the noise, retain insights, and find inspiration.

Macro Landscape

Half of All Stocks Have Entered a Bear Market; US Equities at a "Crossroads," Key Lies in Treasury Volatility

There is currently a divergence gap of approximately 12% between market breadth and index prices in US equities. This divergence must be resolved one way or another—either the index pulls back downward to "meet" market breadth, or bond volatility cools and individual stock catch-up rallies push the index higher. Two paths, diametrically opposed in direction, and there is only one final arbiter: the US Treasury market.

If bond volatility cannot subside, the S&P 500 could drop to the roughly 6,800–7,300 range within the next month before a year-end rally materializes; if bond volatility cools first, individual stock catch-up rallies will drive both the index and breadth higher together.

US Treasury Yield at 5.34%: Who Is Selling, and What Signal Does It Send?

The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to 5.34%, the highest since 2002, posting the steepest single-quarter gain in 32 years during Q3.

This selloff is compounded by three forces—the repricing of policy credibility, the supply pressure from interest bills, and the amplifying effect of crowded positioning.

US Treasuries Suffer Major Selloff While Tech Sector Keeps Rising—What Is the Market Actually Trading?

The market may be repricing for stronger future economic growth and the capital demands generated by large tech companies' continued expansion of AI infrastructure. Under this framework, higher interest rates and strong AI stocks are not necessarily contradictory, because investors may believe that future earnings growth will be sufficient to offset the impact of rising financing costs and discount rates.

Investment & Entrepreneurship

Peter Thiel Interview: Five Decades of Stagnation—Is AI Civilization's Last Self-Rescue?

The West has actually been standing still for the past fifty years. 99% of leaders are utterly incompetent. AI is not an incremental technological miracle but civilization's last chance at self-rescue to break out of the zero-sum quagmire and prevent the collapse of the intergenerational contract.

How Hard Can a Bitcoin Bull Market Drop? A Review of Major BTC Bull Market Corrections and Maximum Drawdowns

A 30% drawdown is a routine cost of an uptrend cycle. A 50% drawdown also has precedent. The current position falls between these two extremes.

The maximum drawdown of this cycle has noticeably converged. Recovery time is harder to predict than the drawdown itself.

The Fed's next FOMC meeting is scheduled for October 27–28, and ETF flows only turned from net outflows to net inflows in late August. Whether this direction continues will determine the capital foundation for this rally.

Renowned Trader Kyle: Which Crypto Assets Are Worth Holding Long-Term?

Investment strategy: pick the right assets, extend the time horizon. Examples: DCA into HYPE, invest in ENA. Finding investment opportunities: look at the sector first, then the team.

Six key sectors and investment targets: AI inference (real demand from outside the crypto industry, top picks VVV and ORBIO), tokenized stocks and RWA (top pick BP), DAT (opportunities from discounts and fundamental improvement, top pick USDE), privacy sector (watch ZEC), perpetual DEX (growth opportunity moving toward mainstream, top picks LIT and HYPE), stablecoins (still USDE).

2030 South Korean Crypto Market: Timing and Strategies for Institutional Entry

Opportunity points: KRW stablecoins, payments, and RWA. Available paths split into: domestic strategy—building internal infrastructure; offshore strategy—immediate global distribution.

Aave Proposes Cayman Foundation—Can the DAO Still Control the Protocol?

Trademarks, domains, and code repositories go to the foundation; governance goes to the DAO.

AI & Storage

AI Companies Are Starting to Invest in Each Other: Compute, Orders, and Capital Form a Circular Network

Cloud service providers invest in model companies, which then use the funds to purchase cloud services; model companies invest in compute suppliers to lock in future computing resources; the two companies both procure from and hold equity in each other. This relationship has precedents in traditional industries, but AI has scaled it to a much larger level.

Chips, data centers, cloud computing, and foundation models require continuous massive capital investment, and order cycles are long, making it difficult for suppliers and customers to establish cooperation through a single procurement contract alone. Equity, loans, long-term procurement commitments, and compute reservations are being packaged into the same transaction. Investment decisions bring orders, orders support revenue and valuations, and companies along the supply chain gradually form a network that connects both capital and business relationships simultaneously.

AI Data Centers Plunge into "Power Shortage": Full Analysis of the Electricity Gap—Which Semiconductor Stocks Are Most at Risk?

The power gap is a net figure, not a gross figure. Grid connection queues are the hardest constraint. Leading chipmakers hold scheduling power. Secondary components bear the time risk. Delays do not equal disappearing demand.

Prediction Markets

Why Can't Hyperliquid's Prediction Market Catch Up to Polymarket?

The thing most similar to HIP-4 is not Polymarket, but an options order sitting next to your perpetual position; anyone who stakes 500,000 HYPE can open a market; settlement conditions are hard-coded into the template before the first trade; entry is free, exit costs about one-thousandth, exactly the reverse of how Kalshi and Polymarket charge.

The design is its best feature; the problem is scale.

Policy and Stablecoins

"Crypto Mom" Hester Peirce Departs, SEC Regulation Enters a Two-Person Era

"Crypto Mom" Hester Peirce has stepped down as a US SEC Commissioner, leaving only Chairman Paul Atkins and Commissioner Mark Uyeda, both Republicans, as the SEC officially enters a "two-person era."

The positions Hester Peirce advocated for years are now becoming documents; the safe harbor concept from back then can already be seen in the SEC's proposals, exemptions, and guidance.

But most of the work is still in progress: Regulation Crypto Assets (token issuance rules), custody rules, transfer agent rule modernization, and Innovation Exemption.

CeFi & DeFi

SEC Opens the Gate, OKX Storms America: Tokenized Stocks Must Be "Truly Stock-Like," Offshore Playbook Faces the Test

OKX's tokenized US stocks have already expanded to over 70 tickers, yet have been kept out of reach for US users; this application targets precisely the "innovation exemption" channel the SEC opened in September.

The key issue is that the new rules require tokens to carry real dividend and voting rights, and the synthetic products OKX sells offshore do not meet the standard.

For investors, what is truly worth watching is what structure it brings to the US, and when OKXICE—its joint venture with NYSE parent company ICE—will obtain its license.

BitMine has already made staking an important source of Ethereum treasury yield. But staking produces tokens, which also creates a problem for the hard cap Lee has set.

BitMine has not yet determined how to handle these excess tokens. Options include: reserving less room for additional purchases, adjusting how staking rewards are handled, and selling some ETH when necessary to keep the holding ratio below the cap.

Multi-Ecosystem

Robinhood Chain's Ebb Tide: What Are the Four Main Reasons Behind the Ecosystem's Plateau?

The Robinhood Chain meme frenzy that had been gaining momentum for nearly three months has quietly cooled, with on-chain trading volume and fee revenue declining in tandem. A closer look at the reasons behind this may be related to frequent rug pulls, restrictions on tokenized stock memes, a lack of innovative gameplay, and constrained conversion in incremental markets.

Security

Renowned White Hat Hacker's Undercover Account of a Chinese Money Laundering Team

ZachXBT described details of how he posed as a client needing money laundering services and communicated with members of the team. After gaining the trust of a team member, ZachXBT learned from them that the team had personally laundered the vast majority of the nearly $1.5 billion stolen from Bybit. After his investigation yielded certain leads, ZachXBT also helped freeze some of the stolen funds and passed the leads to law enforcement.