Institutions Have Already Positioned Early—Is Bitcoin’s $70,000 the Starting Point of a Bull Revival or a Local Peak?

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Golem (@web3_golem)

The bull market is back. In the early morning of August 20 Beijing time, Bitcoin surged past $70,000 following Trump's favorable remarks at a White House meeting with cryptocurrency industry executives, gaining over 10% in 24 hours (Related reading: What did Trump say during the night of crypto's surge?). With the "Crypto President" back, the lackluster phase for Bitcoin may soon be over. After today, many retail investors could shift more attention and capital from AI stocks back into the crypto market.

However, traditional financial institutions and asset management giants—always a step ahead—had already completed their Bitcoin accumulation before the Trump-fueled rally. According to 13F quarterly reports disclosed by major institutions, during Q2 2026, despite Bitcoin falling 14%, institutional holdings increased by 7.5%, indicating institutions were steadily expanding their positions before the market rebound.

Who are these institutions quietly increasing their Bitcoin exposure? Will we see Bitcoin below $65,000 again, and has the bear market bottom been confirmed? Odaily Planet Daily will outline the institutions that disclosed increased Bitcoin exposure in their 13F filings, as well as their outlooks for Bitcoin's future trajectory.

Institutions Increasing Bitcoin Exposure

The primary channels for institutions to increase Bitcoin exposure are spot Bitcoin ETFs and Bitcoin treasury company stocks.

Institutional Bitcoin ETF Holdings Increased 7.5% in Q2 2026

Looking at the overall data first, according to Bitcoin analyst Root, total ETF holdings in Q2 2026 fell from 1,297,010 BTC to 1,211,322 BTC, a decline of 6.6%. However, institutional holdings rose from 498,389 BTC to 535,723 BTC, an increase of 7.5%, with the institutional share of holdings climbing from 38.4% to a record-high 44.2%. This suggests that during the lackluster crypto market, retail investors significantly reduced their Bitcoin ETF positions, while institutions were steadily accumulating at the bottom.

Not all institutions increased their Bitcoin ETF holdings, however—the increases were concentrated among top-tier institutions. According to statistics, the number of institutions holding Bitcoin positions in Q2 fell from approximately 2,000 in Q1 to nearly 1,900, a decline of about 6.8%. Yet among the top 25 institutional Bitcoin ETF holders, 17 increased their positions in Q2.

This suggests that for most institutions, steadfastly holding Bitcoin through a bear market is also quite challenging. Even so, according to Root's data, 9 institutions still made their first allocation of 100+ BTC in Q2 2026.

Below, Odaily Planet Daily will review some of the top institutions that disclosed increased Bitcoin exposure in their 13F filings.

Jane Street: Bitcoin ETF Exposure Increased by ~$600M, Added Over $200M in MSTR

As of June 30, Jane Street disclosed total spot Bitcoin ETF holdings of approximately $990 million, with BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) accounting for $828 million, or roughly 24.9 million shares. In Q1 2026, Jane Street reported total spot Bitcoin ETF holdings of just $225 million, or about 5.9 million shares. Compared to Q1, Jane Street's Bitcoin ETF exposure in Q2 increased by approximately $600 million.

Additionally, Jane Street significantly increased its stake in Strategy (MSTR), growing from 209,833 shares (valued at approximately $26.2 million) in Q1 to 2,677,622 shares (valued at approximately $232.76 million) in Q2—an increase of roughly 2,467,789 shares, or about 1,176%, representing over $200 million in value.

In summary, in Q2 2026, Jane Street added over $800 million in Bitcoin exposure.

It is worth noting, however, that Jane Street's situation differs from typical asset management institutions. 13F filings only disclose long common stock positions (excluding options, shorts, etc.). As a typical quantitative trading/market-making firm, Jane Street may hold short positions in Bitcoin ETFs and MSTR, so actual Bitcoin exposure could differ. Even if its long positions cannot be simplistically interpreted as long-term directional bets, the scale is still quite remarkable.

BlackRock: Bitcoin Exposure Increased by ~$290M in Q2

In Q2, BlackRock increased its investments in three Bitcoin-related assets: Strategy (MSTR), IBIT, and Strive (ASST).

BlackRock raised its MSTR position from approximately 17.75 million shares to 19,394,284 shares (valued at $1.69 billion), adding 1,640,399 shares (worth approximately $238 million), an increase of 9.24% quarter-over-quarter. (Odaily Planet Daily note: BlackRock and Jane Street use different methodologies; this article is based on data disclosed in 13F filings.)

Secondly, BlackRock also increased its holdings of its own spot Bitcoin ETF, adding 1,024,742 shares of IBIT (valued at approximately $41.7 million), bringing its total to 15,034,046 shares by the end of Q2, worth approximately $500 million. Finally, BlackRock also increased its stake in Bitcoin treasury company Strive (ASST), adding 1,636,854 shares (valued at approximately $17.86 million), a 45.1% increase. Its total ASST holdings reached 5.266 million shares by the end of Q2, valued at $57.5 million. Strive currently holds over 20,000 BTC.

In summary, BlackRock's Bitcoin exposure increased by approximately $290 million in Q2.

JPMorgan: Added $85.6 Million in IBIT

JPMorgan primarily increased its position in BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) in Q2, adding 2,104,944 shares (valued at approximately $85.6 million), an increase of 25.35%. This grew its position from 8,302,691 shares in Q1 to 10,407,635 shares, with a total position value of approximately $356 million.

UBS: IBIT Call Option Exposure Grew 24x in Q2

In Q2, UBS's direct holdings of IBIT also grew by 12%, reaching 407,890 shares (valued at approximately $13.6 million). While the increase in direct holdings was relatively modest—still below end-2025 levels (~540,000 shares)—the rise from 364,000 shares in Q1 2026 indicates a growing preference for Bitcoin allocation.

Compared to direct holdings, UBS's IBIT call option exposure surged 24-fold in Q2, from approximately 80,000 shares to 1.95 million shares, while put option exposure declined by approximately 53%, from about 303,000 shares to roughly 143,000 shares.

This clearly indicates a bullish tilt from UBS (increasing the right to buy, decreasing the right to sell). However, 13F filings do not disclose strike prices, expiration dates, or actual costs, and positions may include client business, market-making, or hedging activities—so this may not fully represent proprietary directional bets.

Wall Street Legendary Hedge Fund Manager Paul Tudor Jones: Reverses Selling Trend of IBIT Since 2025

Tudor Investment, managed by legendary Wall Street hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, also increased its IBIT holdings in Q2 2026, ending the quarter with 688,529 shares (valued at $22.9 million). This represents an increase of 109,446 shares (worth approximately $4.45 million), or 18.9%, compared to the 579,083 shares reported in the previous quarter.

While the absolute increase in capital is modest, it ends Paul Tudor Jones's trend of reducing IBIT holdings since 2025, potentially signaling a cautiously optimistic view on Bitcoin's near-term trajectory. Tudor Investment's peak IBIT holdings in late 2024 exceeded 8 million shares, valued at approximately $427 million—current holdings remain roughly 91% below that peak.

Harvard Endowment Fund: Halts Reduction of Spot Bitcoin ETF

Harvard Endowment Fund's 13F filing shows that its spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) holdings remained unchanged at 3,044,612 shares by the end of Q2, with a market value of approximately $101.4 million.

Harvard had reduced its IBIT position for two consecutive quarters prior—peaking at approximately 6.81 million shares in Q3 2025 (valued at ~$443 million), then cutting 21% in Q4 2025 and another ~43% in Q1 2026 to reach current levels. Although this quarter saw no increase in Bitcoin exposure, the halt of two consecutive quarters of reduction can still be interpreted as cautiously optimistic观望.

Do Institutions Think Bitcoin Has Bottomed?

Current institutional views on Bitcoin's trajectory can be broadly divided into two camps: "bear market over" and "bottom not yet reached."

The Bear Market Is Over Camp

With Bitcoin breaking through $70,000 today, Wang Chun, co-founder of Bitcoin mining pool F2Pool, referenced his own January 28, 2023 tweet "missing the bear market" on X, stating, "The bear market is over."

Compared to Wang Chun's brevity, Strive CEO Matt Cole offered a more detailed argument. He believes Bitcoin is poised for a historically favorable rally environment because the U.S. dollar index has been in a structural downtrend and may be approaching a more significant downside phase. This could make the next 5 to 7 years one of the most bullish macro environments in Bitcoin's history. Matt Cole also noted that Bitcoin's current price is relatively low from a historical perspective, and Strive is willing to take on risk to continue buying Bitcoin at these levels.

Standard Chartered is bullish on Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end. Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, stated that as the U.S. Treasury expands liquidity support for the long-term Treasury bond market, Bitcoin could rise to $100,000 by the end of 2026. He noted that Bitcoin's current key technical resistance level is $65,500, and if the price breaks above this level, it could signal that the cyclical low for this market cycle has been formed.

10x Research's latest report also indicates that after months of narrow-range consolidation, Bitcoin has finally broken out. The report states that its most favored strategy this month is buying call options with a $70,000 strike price. These options traded as low as approximately $300 on August 5, dipped to $30 three days ago, then surged to a high of $1,600, and are currently trading around $1,300.

10x Research adds that an even better trading strategy is the September-expiry $70,000/$80,000 call spread. This structure is more bullish while retaining some flexibility.

Bitcoin Has Not Yet Bottomed Camp

Even with Bitcoin above $70,000, some cautious institutions still believe Bitcoin has not yet bottomed.

CZ stated at the SALT conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that Bitcoin's "supercycle" has not yet materialized and the market remains in a bear phase, still following a relatively strict four-year cycle pattern. However, CZ acknowledged that this is the friendliest regulatory environment in his 12 years in the industry.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost believes current retail demand for Bitcoin is approaching the highest levels of the past two years, and historical data shows a clear correlation between retail demand growth and local Bitcoin price tops. Darkfost suggests this may reflect retail "impatience," requiring greater sensitivity to Bitcoin's volatility. Adam from Greeks.live Research also reassured investors who missed Bitcoin's rally, noting that despite Bitcoin breaking $70,000, implied volatility remains at 32%, with ample seller-side liquidity and plenty of trading opportunities for buyers.

Crypto asset management firm VanEck's latest report indicates that while Bitcoin is currently releasing "capitulation signals" similar to the late stages of historical bear markets, data suggests the market bottom has not been fully confirmed. The report states that of the 12 Bitcoin market capitulation indicators it tracks, 8 have entered extreme territory. These indicators primarily measure market stress factors such as Bitcoin price drawdowns, miner profitability, and the percentage of holders in loss.

However, historical performance does not indicate that these signals mean a short-term bottom has formed. VanEck data shows that when 8–12 indicators trigger simultaneously in the past, Bitcoin's average return over the next 90 days was approximately 12.8%, and over 180 days approximately 32%—both below Bitcoin's long-term averages (15.2% for 90 days, 36.3% for 180 days). These signals only show relative outperformance over a one-year horizon and therefore cannot guide long-cycle positioning.

Glassnode also believes Bitcoin's on-chain structure remains in a "capitulation phase," with short-term holder cost basis having fallen to approximately $68,500, below the real market average of approximately $75,800. Meanwhile, this cycle's relative unrealized loss peaked at approximately 25%, significantly lower than the 60%+ levels seen during capitulation phases in previous cycles. This indicates that market losses in this cycle are relatively shallower but more broadly distributed, potentially requiring more time to complete the clearing process.

Glassnode emphasizes that any current price rebound should be viewed more as a local bounce rather than a fundamental shift in market trend.