Behind the Hype of Unitree's IPO: One Lottery Draw Could Earn 200,000 Yuan, Over 90% of Shares Locked in Institutional Hands
Original author: Gu Lingyu
Original editor: Xu Qingyang
Original source: Tencent Technology
Unitree Technology (688836.SH), dubbed the "first humanoid robot stock on the A-share market," officially launched its online subscription on August 10, with an issuance price-to-earnings ratio of 219.23 times—far surpassing the industry average of 38.56 times. The offline inquiry phase was also exceptionally heated, with the effective subscription multiple exceeding 2,618 times.
Recently, major stock forums have been flooded with messages from investors praying for lottery allocation, and "wishing you luck in getting allocated Unitree shares" has even evolved into a social greeting among stock traders. An investor who first encountered Unitree back in 2021 told Tencent Technology that he fully endorses Unitree's hardware-centric business logic, so even though the allocation rate is low and he himself may not get shares, he has enthusiastically recommended the stock to friends around him.
According to details disclosed in the prospectus, Unitree's actual IPO fundraising scale is approximately RMB 6.1 billion, which implies a post-issuance total valuation of around RMB 61 billion. Since the initial online offering is limited to just 6.471 million shares, and each lot consists of 500 shares, there are fewer than 13,000 lots available for lottery draw across the entire market. This means that out of every 10,000 valid subscription numbers, only about two people will be fortunate enough to secure an allocation, with the expected allocation rate hovering between 0.02% and 0.03%—making it far more difficult to get allocated than the previously highly anticipated Changxin Technology.
Behind this fervent sentiment lies the highly enticing expectation of new-stock subscription returns. According to comprehensive calculations by multiple brokerages, the average first-day gain for new A-share listings has reached 276.04% since 2026. If Unitree Technology can maintain this average level, the paper profit from a single allocated lot is expected to surpass the RMB 200,000 mark; if benchmarked against the average first-day gain of 466.61% for new STAR Market listings this year, the potential profit per lot could even surge to over RMB 350,000.
A Pricey Ticket
During the three-hour online investor communication session held on August 7, when faced with investors' questions about whether the P/E ratio of over 200 times is too high and detached from fundamentals, Unitree Technology founder Wang Xingxing responded: "While most of our peers are still struggling in the quagmire of losses, Unitree has already achieved profitability."
According to financial data, Unitree Technology's revenue surged from RMB 159 million in 2023 to RMB 1.699 billion in 2025, representing a staggering compound annual growth rate of 226.78%. Profitability also saw a dramatic turnaround, with non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders swinging from a loss of over RMB 18 million to RMB 591 million in 2025. Additionally, the company recorded net operating cash flow of RMB 670 million in 2025, held RMB 1.419 billion in cash on its books, and had virtually no interest-bearing debt pressure.
The company's core business structure has also been reshaped. Revenue from the humanoid robot segment surged from a negligible RMB 2.96 million in 2023 to RMB 868 million in 2025, with its share of total revenue jumping from less than 2% to 51.78%, replacing quadruped robots as the company's primary growth engine. In 2025, Unitree shipped over 5,500 humanoid robots, ranking first globally. During this period, the company's gross margin on its main business also climbed from 44.22% to 60.13%, with the humanoid robot segment achieving a gross margin of 63.18%—a figure that puts many pure software companies to shame.
It is precisely based on such fundamentals that the capital market has been willing to grant an ultra-high issuance P/E ratio of 219 times, and the fervor of offline subscription demand speaks for itself. In the strategic placement phase, three portfolios under the National Social Security Fund collectively subscribed approximately RMB 141 million; AI large-model unicorn DeepSeek also received an allocation of approximately RMB 141 million, committing to the longest lock-up period of 36 months.
What institutional investors are paying top dollar for is not Unitree's current earnings sheet, but rather an early bet on the trillion-yuan market scale that the humanoid robot track may potentially reach in the future.
However, the structural factors underpinning this high gross margin are now facing tests. In its response to regulatory inquiries, Unitree Technology disclosed that during the first three quarters of 2025, orders from the scientific research and education sector accounted for as much as 73.60% of its humanoid robot revenue, while commercial consumer and industrial applications accounted for only 17.39% and 9.01%, respectively. Among the limited industrial applications, scenarios such as corporate showroom guided tours dominate, and revenue truly landing in hardcore scenarios like smart manufacturing and industrial inspection accounts for less than 30% of the industrial application segment.
This indicates that the current humanoid robot market remains a niche segment primarily driven by scientific research demand, where customers are willing to pay premium prices for cutting-edge technology. Given that the capacity ceiling of the scientific education market falls far short of the vast industrial manufacturing sector, when Unitree's customer base inevitably expands toward the industrial end in the future, downward pressure on its gross margin levels will follow.
Entering 2026, signs of slowing growth have begun to emerge. In the first quarter, Unitree Technology recorded revenue of RMB 423 million—still up 68.49% year-over-year, but a notable cooling compared to the over 330% growth seen in full-year 2025. Its first-quarter non-GAAP net profit attributable to parent shareholders was only RMB 40.25 million, a sharp decline of 52.55% year-over-year. The company forecasts that its non-GAAP net profit for the first half of 2026 will range between RMB 236 million and RMB 283 million, with an expected year-over-year decline of 6% to 22%.
In 2023, the average selling price of a single Unitree humanoid robot was still around RMB 590,000; by 2025, it had fallen to approximately RMB 160,000. According to statistics from the Gaogong Robot Industry Research Institute, by the first quarter of 2026, the industry-wide average price per unit had further dropped to the RMB 100,000 mark. However, the pace of cost reduction has failed to keep up with price cuts—from 2023 to the first three quarters of 2025, unit cost only decreased from RMB 73,200 to RMB 62,200, a decline of approximately 15%. This shift is systematically squeezing the company's gross margin space.
Unitree Technology noted in its prospectus that the company has not yet deployed its self-developed general-purpose embodied large model at scale to robot terminals. To address the shortfall in "brain" technology, of the approximately RMB 6.1 billion actually raised in this offering, over RMB 2 billion has been explicitly earmarked for intelligent robot model research and development, with a focus on tackling the "brain" and "cerebellum" systems of embodied intelligence.
Currently, the generalization capability of humanoid robots in complex scenarios remains very limited. During the roadshow, some investors questioned whether its products are merely "remote-controlled toys." Wang Xingxing responded that the remote control is retained to provide "the highest level of safety redundancy," designed to serve as a final physical line of defense to prevent safety incidents when AI models make misjudgments.
The Game of Reality
Alongside Unitree's listing, a wealth-creation feast is unfolding, but a clear chasm has emerged between the exuberance of the primary market and the practical considerations of the secondary market.
Early investors have reaped extraordinary returns. Variables Capital invested only RMB 2.09 million in 2018, and its return multiple has now soared to over 174 times; Sequoia Capital China has cumulatively injected approximately RMB 102 million over the years, and based on the issuance price, its stake is now valued at close to RMB 3 billion. Meituan-affiliated entities hold a combined 9.65% stake through multiple investment vehicles, with paper gains exceeding RMB 3.6 billion.
However, what awaits secondary market investors is a trading environment characterized by highly concentrated chips and intense sentiment-driven gamesmanship.
Unitree Technology's total public offering this time is approximately 40.44 million shares, but the initial quota allocated to online retail investors accounts for only 16%. The remaining 84% of shares have been scooped up by institutional investors through strategic placement and offline inquiry. Of the total 404 million shares outstanding after issuance, only approximately 29.77 million shares will actually be freely tradable on the first day of listing, representing a mere 7.36% of total share capital. This means that over 90% of shares will be locked up on the day of the bell-ringing ceremony.
Against the backdrop of extremely scarce tradable chips, the price fluctuation elasticity in the early stage of listing is bound to be dramatically amplified. This typical pattern of "event-driven speculation followed by a spike and then a pullback" was already previewed during a wave of humanoid robot concept stock rallies around the Spring Festival this year. Once the market's optimistic expectations are prematurely exhausted and there is a lack of follow-up incremental capital, the crowded trading structure at elevated levels can trigger a sharp sell-off as funds rush to exit.
Primary market investors undoubtedly hope that Unitree will experience a strong surge after listing, thereby establishing a "valuation benchmark" for the embodied intelligence track on the A-share market and propping up higher valuation ceilings for peers queuing up for IPOs, such as Dobot and DeepRobotics. But in the secondary market, many trading professionals believe that capital's aesthetic standards are becoming increasingly stringent, with investment logic shifting from merely listening to technology visions toward scrutinizing companies' real commercialization capabilities and earnings quality.
Looking further ahead, Unitree will face a more complex competitive landscape and overseas environment. Domestically, cross-industry giants with strong manufacturing DNA and rich application scenarios—such as Xiaomi, BYD, and XPeng—are accelerating their entry into the embodied intelligence track; overseas, although Tesla's third-generation production version of Optimus has been delayed to early 2026, its long-term deterrence in terms of technical approach and cost-reduction capability remains formidable. Additionally, given that more than 43% of Unitree Technology's revenue depends on overseas markets, the recent inclusion of Chinese advanced robots on the restriction list by the U.S. FCC (Federal Communications Commission) has cast a real shadow over the overseas expansion narrative of Chinese robotics companies.
The exact listing date has not yet been officially announced. Following the customary procedures for new STAR Market listings, Unitree is expected to begin formal trading as early as mid-August.
