24H Hot Coins & Headlines | Fed Holds Rates Steady; South Korea Pledges Further Measures to Stabilize Stock Market (July 30)
- Core View: The Fed kept rates unchanged but internal pressure to hike intensified, South Korea strengthened stock market regulations, tech giants (Microsoft, Meta) reported AI business growth and cost pressures in their earnings, platforms like Binance and Robinhood expanded crypto and prediction market businesses, and total crypto financing in Q2 reached $12.86 billion.
- Key Elements:
- The Federal Reserve held the benchmark interest rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting with no change, but three committee members dissented and advocated for a rate hike, the first such occurrence since 2016.
- South Korea's Ministry of Finance will take measures, including restricting leveraged ETF trading, to stabilize the stock market. JP Morgan stated that the liquidation process for Korean stock leveraged ETFs is complete.
- Microsoft’s Q4 revenue reached $90 billion, exceeding expectations, with Azure cloud revenue growing 43% and surpassing $100 billion in annual revenue for the first time.
- Meta set a Q2 revenue record, but net profit fell short of expectations. Due to concerns over AI costs, its stock price dropped over 6% in after-hours trading, and the lower end of its annual capital expenditure guidance was raised.
- Total financing and mergers & acquisitions in the crypto industry for Q2 2026 reached $12.86 billion, a sequential increase of approximately 45%. Debt financing accounted for $4.36 billion, becoming the second-largest source.
- Bernstein lowered its price target for Circle from $190 to $140 but predicts the total stablecoin supply will reach $4 trillion by 2035, with Circle holding an approximately 30% market share.
- Binance's bStocks total assets under management surpassed $590 million, overtaking xStocks to become the largest product in the on-chain stock asset track.
1. Popular Tokens on CEX
Top 10 CEX Trading Volume and 24-hour Change:
- BTC: +0.69%
- ETH: +0.14%
- SOL: +0.67%
- SNDKB: -3.16%
- XRP: -0.2%
- VANA: -14.47%
- BANK: +10.00%
- SKHYB: +2.16%
- XRP: -0.4%
- VANA: -14.6%
24-hour Gainers List (Data source: OKX):
- ACH: +19.51%
- ASP: +18.9%
- RE: +14.6%
- AEON: +10.15%
- SENT: +6.98%
- xMSFT: +6.61%
- FLOW: +6.48%
- PROS: +6.32%
- SSV: +5.67%
- AGLD: +5.27%
24-hour Crypto-Stock Gainers List (Data source: msx.com):
- EDU: 15.18%
- SOXS: 14.55%
- CONI: 9.25%
- SNOW: 9.11%
- BWET: 8.38%
- MSFT: 8.05%
- MDB: 7.53%
- TSLQ: 7.59%
- NVDQ: 6.9%
- INTU: 6.73%
2. Popular Memes On-chain (Data source: GMGN):
- Solana: Fauci, Jimothy
- BSC: HEYI, MarsCoin
- Robinhood: CASHCAT, MarketCat
Headlines
Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady
Odaily reports that the Federal Reserve has kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change. (Jin Shi)
Three Dissenting Votes Emerge, Growing Pressure for Fed Rate Hike
Odaily reports that in this rate decision, three of the five voting regional Fed bank presidents on the FOMC dissented: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan. All three favored a 25 basis point rate hike. This marks the first time since September 2016 that the Fed has seen three unanimous dissenting votes in a single policy decision, reflecting growing internal pressure for tightening policy.
Fed Chair Christopher Waller, who supported holding rates steady, has consistently emphasized the Fed's responsibility to curb inflation. He is expected to be asked during his press conference at 2:30 AM Beijing time why he believes maintaining patience remains the most appropriate policy choice. (Jin Shi)
Odaily reports that South Korea's Finance Ministry stated it is committed to taking additional measures to stabilize the stock market, including restricting leveraged ETF trading and limiting retail investors' exposure to leveraged ETFs, while maintaining a 24-hour stock market monitoring system. (Jin Shi)
JP Morgan: Korean Stock Leveraged ETF Unwinding Complete, Hedge Funds 90% De-levered
Odaily reports that JP Morgan released a note indicating the unwinding process for Korean stock leveraged ETFs is complete, with hedge funds having completed 90% of their de-leveraging. While some aftershocks may linger in the coming days, the market is generally becoming attractive for investment.
Dan Bin: Must Be Brave to Buy on Big Drops, Just Spent the Last of My Ammo
Odaily reports that today, Dan Bin stated on Xueqiu, "You must be brave to buy on big drops; I just spent the last of my remaining ammo." Earlier, he posted, "The 2x leveraged SK Hynix ETF is down 25.72% today. Leveraged tools can amplify gains but also multiply risks. When the tide goes out, the cruelty of market volatility becomes clearer. Thus, such leveraged products require extra caution."
Dan Bin believes SK Hynix has become one of the iconic companies in this AI cycle. Given the current pace of adjustment, the short-term direction will likely be decided soon. Of course, over a longer timeframe, only companies with continuously optimized supply-demand dynamics and steadily improving profitability can navigate through multiple cycles.
Industry News
South Korean Politicians Criticize Government Over 2x Leveraged ETFs
Odaily reports that Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X, stating that during a hearing, South Korean People Power Party lawmaker Lee Jongwook told Koo, "This country has become a casino. These products should never have been allowed into the market. I consider this a policy failure."
Eric Balchunas noted that South Korean politicians are criticizing the government over 2x leveraged ETFs, but the bubble and correction were caused by the AI boom generating significant interest in memory chip manufacturers. The 2x leveraged ETFs are just a tool for gaining exposure. He also suggested that South Korea might not be the best market for 2x single-stock ETFs, as the underlying stocks lack sufficient liquidity, making derivatives more likely to negatively impact the underlying.
Samsung Electronics Q2 Chip Profit Beats Expectations, Sees Strong AI Server Chip Demand in H2
Odaily reports that Samsung Electronics' second-quarter net profit was 71.3 trillion won, exceeding the market expectation of 68.5 trillion won. The chip division's operating profit was 89.2 trillion won.
Samsung Electronics' second-quarter operating profit was 89.4 trillion won, in line with preliminary estimates. Revenue was 171 trillion won, also meeting expectations.
Samsung stated that server chip demand will remain strong in the second half, with chip supply shortages expected to persist. Meanwhile, the memory business is expected to benefit from continued AI infrastructure capital expenditures and broader demand for autonomous AI applications.
The company noted that demand for mobile and PC chips is expected to slow, and uncertainties remain for the memory business in H2. Additionally, Samsung plans to increase its smartphone market share in the second half, with its foundry business expected to achieve double-digit revenue growth this year. (Jin Shi)
Microsoft Q4 Revenue of $90B Beats Estimates, Azure Cloud Revenue Breaks $100B for First Time
Odaily reports that Microsoft (MSFT.O) reported strong cloud business growth and an increase in paid AI users, while investors remain keenly focused on whether the tech giant's spending on data centers will pay off. Microsoft's fourth fiscal quarter earnings per share were $4.81, up from $3.65 a year ago and above the Wall Street estimate of $4.24. Quarterly revenue reached $90 billion, exceeding the expected $87.6 billion and representing 18% year-over-year growth. Azure remains one of the most closely watched metrics, seen as a bellwether for overall AI demand. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella stated, "Azure revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time, and paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats exceeded 30 million, reflecting customer confidence in our ability to drive their AI transformation." Microsoft's Azure cloud business generated $39.3 billion in revenue in Q4, growing 43%, beating the expected 40% growth. Microsoft's stock rose as much as 4% in after-hours trading. Year-to-date, Microsoft's stock has fallen approximately 18%. (Jin Shi)
Meta Posts Record Revenue, but AI Costs Weigh on Stock
Odaily reports that Meta Platforms (META.O) posted record quarterly revenue for Q2, but the company's update on AI spending plans raised investor concerns about its infrastructure construction costs. Meta slightly raised the lower end of its full-year capital expenditure guidance from $125 billion to $130 billion, keeping the upper end at $145 billion. Its Q2 revenue was $60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year, but net income was $15.8 billion, below analyst estimates. Consequently, Meta's stock fell over 6% in after-hours trading. In the race for AI, Meta has invested tens of billions in chip procurement, data center construction, and top talent recruitment, recently partnering with BlackRock to finance at least $12 billion for a Texas data center. Meta's Q2 free cash flow was $784 million. (Jin Shi)
CME Plans to Launch Futures Tied to Sporting Events as New Hedging Tool
Odaily reports that the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is planning to launch futures and options contracts linked to professional and college sporting events. The exchange is partnering with emerging index provider FutureSports, whose products will underpin these new instruments. The statement indicated that the first sports futures contracts will be cash-settled, with monthly and quarterly expirations, and could begin trading as early as this summer pending regulatory approval.
CME CEO Terry Duffy said in a statement, "This is not just a new product; it's about introducing genuine price discovery mechanisms and risk management standards to an industry in dire need of change." Futures contracts are common in global financial markets, with underlying assets including stock indices and commodities. If approved, this would be a first for the sports industry. (Jin Shi)
Odaily reports that Benchmark partner Chetan Puttagunta posted on X, expressing confusion over Anthropic's public call for stricter regulation of AI model distillation. He noted that Anthropic is currently a company valued at around $1 trillion with vast technical and financial resources. At the scale Anthropic describes, a so-called "large-scale distillation attack" should theoretically be relatively easy to identify and trace. If Anthropic chooses to restrict such behavior, the real cost might not be a lack of technical capability but rather forgoing some API revenue. "The only cost seems to be a reduction in related API business revenue."
Previously, AI companies like Anthropic have focused on the issue of model distillation. Model distillation typically involves using the output of a large model (teacher model) to train another model (student model) to reduce costs and improve efficiency. Some AI companies worry that competitors might call APIs extensively to obtain model outputs for training their own models, bypassing original R&D investments. Puttagunta's view is that the controversy surrounding model distillation in the AI industry essentially involves balancing commercial interests, open competition, and intellectual property protection. For leading AI companies, finding a balance between protecting core technology and maintaining an open ecosystem will be a key issue for future industry competition.
Robinhood Q2 Net Revenue of $1.31B Beats Expectations, Full-Year Expense Guidance Lowered
Odaily reports that Robinhood released its Q2 2026 financial results, with net revenue of $1.31 billion, up 32% year-over-year, exceeding the analyst estimate of $1.28 billion. Net income was $573 million, up 48% year-over-year. Diluted earnings per share were $0.62, up 48% year-over-year.
The results showed Robinhood's adjusted EBITDA was $741 million, up 35% year-over-year, beating the market expectation of $629 million. The company's net deposits reached a record $21.7 billion. Gold subscribers grew to 4.8 million, up 39% year-over-year.
By business, Robinhood's cryptocurrency revenue was $100 million, above the market estimate of $86.6 million. Options revenue was $342 million, up 29% year-over-year. Average revenue per user (ARPU) reached $187, up 24% year-over-year.
The company expects full-year 2026 adjusted operating expenses and stock-based compensation to be between $2.675 billion and $2.775 billion, below its previous guidance and market expectations. During the period, over 7 million users registered under the Trump account, depositing nearly $1.5 billion. Robinhood Chain mainnet launched, and the company obtained a Singapore Capital Markets Services license, also completing the acquisition of WonderFi.
Binance.US to Apply for CFTC Permit Next Month, Plans to Launch Prediction Market
Odaily reports that Fox Business crypto journalist posted on X that Binance.US CEO Stevie Satoshi stated Binance.US plans to apply for a Designated Contract Market license from the CFTC next month, with the goal of offering prediction markets to customers.
Project News
Bernstein Adjusts Circle Price Target from $190 to $140, Judges Open USD Threat Will Diminish
Odaily reports that Bernstein lowered its price target for Circle from $190 to $140 while maintaining an outperform rating. Analyst Gautam Chhugani stated that the Open USD consortium, supported by over 140 institutions including Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe, poses less of a threat to Circle than market expectations. As of July 28, Circle's closing price was $64.32.
USDC's ending supply for Q2 was approximately $73 billion, down from $77 billion in Q1, while the average supply rose to about $76 billion. The average SOFR rate in Q2 dropped to 3.62%, and the reserve return rate fell to 3.46%, with reserve revenue rising to about $655 million. USDC balances on Hyperliquid increased from $5 billion in mid-May to over $6 billion, generating roughly $210 million in annualized gross reserve revenue, with about $190 million directed back to the exchange under a revenue-sharing agreement.
Bernstein lowered its year-end 2026 USDC supply forecast by 37% to $83 billion, and its 2028 forecast to $170 billion. Its 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast was cut by 12% to $602 million, and EPS forecast was lowered from $1.98 to $0.92. However, the firm expects total stablecoin supply to reach $4 trillion by 2035, with Circle holding around a 30% share. Additionally, Circle received final approval from the OCC in July to establish Circle National Trust. (The Block)
Binance bStocks Total AUM Surpasses $590 Million, Overtakes xStocks
Odaily reports that Dune data shows the total assets under management (AUM) for bStocks has reached approximately $599 million, surpassing the AUM of xStocks, which is around $589 million. The data indicates that bStocks' scale in the on-chain stock asset sector has further expanded, demonstrating continued market demand and user engagement.
ARK Invest Executive Says Visa's Support for OpenUSD Closer to Letter of Intent Than
