Semiconductor storage continues its upward trend—is it time to focus on allocation?

Last night, the US semiconductor sector continued its strong upward momentum.

Micron closed up about 12%, SanDisk gained 14%, and SK Hynix rose 13%. The magnitude of gains for these three memory chip giants is enough to rival the daily volatility of altcoins in the crypto market. But the impact of this surge goes beyond the numbers themselves—it directly shattered the "memory cycle peak" consensus that had been gradually forming over the past few weeks.

The once increasingly convincing narrative that the "super cycle for memory chips is over" was rejected by capital injecting real money overnight.

1. Why the Surge Continues? Two Foundational Logics Are Being Restructured

On the surface, this appears to be an emotionally driven revenge rally. However, dissecting the driving factors reveals two deeper industrial logics behind it that are being repriced.

Logic One: Memory Becomes the "Second Ticket"

Over the past two years, the core narrative of the AI supply chain has revolved around a single word—GPU. Nvidia has been the undisputed king, and whoever buys the most GPUs leads the AI arms race.

But now, this narrative is undergoing a critical expansion.

Nvidia’s next-generation AI chip architecture, Vera Rubin, has entered mass production and shipment. This chip demands an unprecedented level of memory bandwidth and capacity—while model-side parameter scales are also expanding simultaneously. For instance, Kimi K3’s 2.8 trillion parameters mean that during inference, HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), DRAM, and traditional storage must be constantly loaded in place, rather than being shuttled back and forth between CPU and GPU as before.

In plain English: Memory is no longer a mere "accessory" to the GPU; it is becoming an independent bottleneck, standing alongside the GPU in determining AI system performance.

The computing narrative is shifting from "buy only GPUs" to "memory is the second ticket." When memory's status is elevated to parity with computing power, the valuation framework for the entire supply chain needs to be rewritten—this is the core reason why capital has suddenly flowed back into memory chip stocks.

Logic Two: The Industry Is Doubling Down, Not Contracting

Contrary to the pessimistic "capex peak" narrative, actual moves at the industry level indicate that players are accelerating, not hitting the brakes.

Recent news flow also helps explain this phenomenon:

First, SK Hynix is reportedly in talks to acquire Intel's wafer fab in Ohio. If this deal goes through, Hynix would gain DRAM manufacturing capabilities on US soil—not only strategically bolstering its global production footprint, but also paving the way to secure orders from major US clients amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

Second, the CEOs of South Korea's three tech giants—Samsung, SK Hynix, and Naver—are reportedly flying to Silicon Valley this week for a roundtable meeting with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. This marks the first time the top players from memory manufacturers, the GPU titan, and major AI model developers sit at the same table—the depth and breadth of industry collaboration far exceeding previous market expectations.

These signals collectively point to one conclusion: The industrial status of memory chips is undergoing a systematic revaluation. It is no longer a passive, commodity-like supplier but a strategic node on par with GPUs in the AI infrastructure chain.

Market observers suggest that the second half of the memory super cycle may have just officially begun.

2. But Don’t Pop the Champagne Too Soon—The Fate of Cyclical Stocks Remains

That said, "the second half has begun" does not mean "you can blindly chase gains."

The memory chip industry has an iron law that, no matter how bullish you are about the current demand surge, you cannot bypass it—cyclicality.

History repeatedly shows us: Cyclical peaks in the semiconductor industry often end with declines of 30% to 50%. This is not speculation; it is the standard outcome for every memory super cycle over the past two decades.

The current second half may indeed be underway, but this does not mean the valuation hangover from the first half has fully dissipated. The second half can be profitable, but it can also lead to losses.

3. A Often-Overlooked "Hidden Bomb": SK Hynix ADR's 29.8% Premium

If you chased SK Hynix's US-listed ADR (ticker: SKHY) last night, there is a risk that is very real and targeting your holdings.

Currently, SKHY's share price is around $173, but it trades at a roughly 29.8% premium compared to the underlying Hynix shares on South Korea's KOSPI market. After stripping out this premium, the fair value based on the Korean underlying stock is approximately $120.

More critically: On July 29, just five trading days from now, the SKHY ADR will become exchangeable with the underlying Korean shares.

What does this mean? It means arbitrageurs can buy the cheaper underlying shares on the Korean market and convert them into ADRs to sell on the US market—capturing nearly 30% in premium through this operation. As arbitrage capital floods in, the ADR price will be forcibly pulled down toward parity with the underlying shares.

Even if the Korean underlying shares themselves don't fall, SKHY could drop significantly due to the premium contraction. If you bought in at the high premium range above $170, this risk is not theoretical—it's in your portfolio details.

4. Final Thoughts: Bullish on Direction, But Bumpy Ride—Options Are the Best "Safety Belt" Now

Combining the above analysis, the current situation can be summed up in one sentence: The macro direction is bullish, but the journey will be full of turbulence.

You may agree that the second half of the memory super cycle has begun, but you also know that cyclical stocks can easily face a 30%+ correction at any time.

In this moment of "believing in the direction but fearing the ride," options are the most suitable risk management tool.

The BIT platform's options functionality will officially launch this week, allowing you to:

• Hold the underlying stock + buy put options: Use a small premium to lock downside risk within a manageable range
• Buy both sides simultaneously: Earnings season brings high volatility and uncertainty about direction? Bet on both sides; profit as long as volatility is high enough
• Buy call options on one side: Bullish on the second half but don't want to go all-in on the underlying stock? Use options to achieve large exposure with small capital, with maximum loss limited to the premium paid

Margin long, short selling, options insurance—three strategies, one platform. In the second half of the memory super cycle, you can both capture upward opportunities and defend your downside during corrections.

Risk Warning: Options trading involves risk and may result in the total loss of the premium paid. Combined with the use of margin, risks will be further amplified. The above strategies and figures are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Actual trading results will vary based on market conditions. Please make cautious decisions according to your own risk tolerance.