The BTC whale who perfectly timed the top, closing shorts at $64k and flipping long

Original article by Doctor Profit

Compiled by Odaily Qin Xiaofeng (@QinXiaofeng 888 )

Editor’s Note: The English-language influencer "Doctor Profit," with 500,000 followers, famously predicted the 2025 BTC top at $126,000, aggressively shorted over 100 altcoins for sustained profit, and even forecasted BTC dropping to between $30,000 and $40,000.

However, last Saturday, "Doctor Profit" posted a new tweet stating he had recently closed all short positions and repurchased Bitcoin spot, planning to DCA between $54,000 and $64,000. His reasons: first, market sentiment is extremely bearish, with retail investors unanimously waiting for the "four-year cycle bottom" between $40,000 and $50,000, whereas he chooses to front-run, believing the bottom will arrive early; second, Bitcoin is facing structural upheaval—tokenization pilots (involving BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, etc.), the progress of the CLARITY Act, and accelerating institutional capital inflows—factors that are undermining conditions for a deeper crash; third, the crypto bear market has lasted nine months, while the stock market has just peaked, and crash capital may flow into the undervalued crypto market.

This post has garnered 2.3 million views on X. Below is the original content, compiled by Odaily. Enjoy~

——————————

Today, I am announcing one of the most significant moves since I topped out in September 2025—I have closed all my cryptocurrency short positions.

Bitcoin short positions established between $115,000 and $125,000 have now been closed, realizing substantial profits. Short positions averaging $80,500, established between $79,000 and $82,000, have also been closed, again with significant gains. The 100+ altcoin short positions I built over the past few months have also been closed, locking in massive profits once more.

Now, I can finally bid farewell to leisurely times. Congratulations to all who ignored the market noise, trusted my strategic framework, and have followed me since September 2025!

Buying Bitcoin Spot

This marks the first time since September 2025 that I have repurchased Bitcoin spot. Today, I entered at the $64,000 level as an absolute long-term position. This is the first time in 9 months I have bought Bitcoin for the long haul! This is the start of a structured DCA strategy, which I will execute with the same discipline I used when topping out.

DCA Strategy

All friends who followed my strategy in the $115,000 to $125,000 range remember exactly how it worked. Whenever Bitcoin traded within that range, I sold 10% of my spot position and established short positions. I didn't care whether Bitcoin was at $116,000, $120,000, or $124,000.

Now, I am doing the exact opposite. As long as Bitcoin is between $54,000 and $64,000, I will use 5% of my planned capital daily to buy spot Bitcoin. This time it's 5%, not 10%, because I want to extend the DCA period! If Bitcoin stalls at $62,000, I buy; if it drops to $58,000, I buy again; if it falls to $56,000, I still buy; if it wicks down to $54,000, I buy more aggressively. Even if it returns to $64,000, I will still buy. As long as Bitcoin stays within this range, I will use 5% of my total capital daily to buy, planning to continue for 20 days.

Technical Range and Sentiment Reversal

A classic indicator—the 200-week moving average (MA200)—is located in this zone and is currently being tested from below. Bitcoin touched the lower edge of this zone last week. The top of the 2024 consolidation box also aligns with this.

More importantly, market sentiment has completely reversed.

I must say, there are far more bears than bulls out there now, and I hate being part of the "majority." Those who screamed for $150,000 at the top are now desperately waiting for a drop to $40,000. X is flooded with targets of $50,000, $45,000, $42,000, and $38,000.Retail investors are once again collectively standing on one side of the boat, convinced the market owes them a perfect entry point.

Front-Running the Herd

Since I marked the $50,000 to $40,000 range as a deeper bear target, most of Crypto Twitter has been parroting my narrative. They copy everything, but the market isn't blind. The market knows retail is sitting on cash waiting below $50,000; they know people are too scared to buy at $64,000.

I won't follow the crowd begging the market to give me the same price as everyone else; I will front-run them. The next few trades will also push prices higher, and so the cycle continues. The price chain will extend, and those waiting for lower prices will wait forever.

The four-year cycle worked at the top, but that doesn't mean it will work the same way at the bottom. Now, everyone is waiting for September or October, as if the market has marked the bottom on its calendar. Do you realize how absurd this is?Ask others when they plan to buy, and they will all tell you September or October. Ask them why, and they'll repeat the same answer: because of the four-year cycle. This is textbook herd behavior.

What if the actual cycle isn't exactly four years? What if it's three years and nine or ten months? What if the market bottoms before the date everyone is waiting for? Bulls are waiting, bears are waiting, and everyone is using the same indicators to justify the same timing. This alone is enough to panic all those waiting for the four-year cycle. The market doesn't reward people for blindly following a calendar. I don't see the four-year cycle bottom materializing. It won't happen; the bottom will only come earlier.

Structural Shift Behind Bitcoin

The deeper reason for the change is not technical but structural. The environment surrounding Bitcoin is transforming at a speed most have yet to comprehend.

Regulatory clarity, tokenization infrastructure, and institutional adoption are progressing in lockstep. The legal framework currently being built has the potential to unlock trillions of dollars in institutional capital that has been sitting on the sidelines or locked in stock markets waiting for certainty. Combined with the institutional buildout at Coinbase and BlackRock's fully operational ETF ecosystem, the Bitcoin market we face today is no longer the one from six months ago. The CLARITY Act is expected to pass by August 10, subject to Senate voting, and this is no small matter. There's a reason the entire world is now racing to regulate crypto.

BlackRock, Vanguard, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and the NYSE have all joined the DTCC's real-time tokenization pilot. Microsoft stock, SPY, QQQ, and US Treasuries are currently being tested as tokenized securities, with official launch planned for October. Stocks, ETFs, and Treasuries are moving on-chain; the world's largest institutions are adopting blockchain rails, while retail is still debating whether the bear market is over. Additionally, Citadel just injected $400 million into Crypto.com at a $20 billion valuation.

The biggest players are deploying capital en masse before the public understands what's happening. The infrastructure is being built right in front of everyone, and my capital will move with—not after—the world's largest capital begins to flow.

Before the masses understand, the biggest players are deploying capital en masse. The infrastructure is being built right in front of everyone, and my capital will move with—not after—the world's largest capital begins to flow.

On the Stock Market Crash

I will keep all my S&P 500 short positions. Bitcoin and the stock market are not the same asset; they are in different cycle phases. The crypto bear market started in October 2025 and has lasted nine months, while the stock market remained resilient throughout. Bitcoin plunged 52% from $125,000 to $60,000. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 hit all-time highs.

Crypto has already repriced, while stocks remain overvalued. Therefore, the crypto market is highly likely to benefit from a stock market crash, as capital flows from overvalued assets to undervalued ones. Against the backdrop of the tokenization boom, stablecoin discussions, and the CLARITY Act, this capital is highly likely to flow into the crypto market.

One More Thing

I explicitly predicted Bitcoin's target range of $40,000 to $50,000. When Bitcoin was at $120,000, I forecasted $60,000; when it reached $60,000, I said $40,000 to $50,000 was coming.

But when every trader on X starts waiting for the same price level, the market almost never actually reaches it. Six months ago, no one predicted Bitcoin would drop below $50,000. Now, almost every account is forecasting it. This is precisely the moment when the target is "taken off the table."

I now believe we won't see the $40,000 to $50,000 range in this cycle. The market structure that should have brought that range is crumbling under the impact of the tokenization revolution, the CLARITY Act, and the influx of the world's largest capital.

A good trader adjusts their view based on reality. This is exactly why shorting at 120k made me a fortune, and why I am now starting to DCA while others are still waiting for a bottom they have long anticipated but will never arrive in the way they expect.

The masses have turned extremely bearish, and the conditions for a deeper crash are starting to dissolve in the face of regulation and the tokenization revolution. I would rather start building a position before the masses understand this shift than chase Bitcoin at higher prices after confirmation signals appear. Move first, before the crowd wakes up.