BitMart Research Weekly Highlights: Rate Hike Expectations Rise, Crypto Market Stabilizes Amid Fluctuations

I. Macro Economy and Traditional Financial Markets

1. Stock market divergence persists: Tech sector experiences sharp volatility, with all three major indices closing lower.

U.S. stocks broadly weakened, but significant divergence was seen across sectors and individual stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.26% to 52,498.64 points, showing relative resilience. The S&P 500 fell 0.79% to 7,515.34 points. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 1.55% to 25,873.18 points, dragged down by growth tech stocks, while the small-cap Russell 2000 also came under pressure. The semiconductor sector experienced an extreme reversal. SK Hynix, which had just completed a massive $26.5 billion ADR listing at $149, surged 12.8% on its debut day to close at $168.01. However, on the second trading day, it plummeted 9.3%, nearly wiping out its first-day gains, dragging the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 4.78%. Divergence among individual stocks intensified. AI hardware stocks broadly weakened, with NVIDIA falling 3.52% in a single day, and AMD, ARM, and Micron all declining over 4%. Apple bucked the trend, rising 0.71% to a fresh all-time high. Microsoft and Amazon edged up, while Google, Meta, and Palantir continued their downward trend. Capital is increasingly differentiating valuations across the AI supply chain, beginning to shun companies with longer payback periods on compute investments.

2. Middle East ceasefire collapses: Oil prices surge 9.3%, gold falls counterintuitively.

The ceasefire agreement officially collapsed this week. After Iran launched missile attacks on commercial oil tankers and military bases, the U.S. announced the termination of the ceasefire and launched retaliatory strikes. Brent crude surged 9.3%, jumping from $69.56 to $76.01 per barrel, as concerns over energy supply disruptions rapidly escalated. Weekly crude oil gains were around 4.56%, but it remains down 18.14% over a 30-day period, indicating a short-term rebound driven by geopolitical risk.

In stark contrast, spot gold did not trigger its traditional safe-haven rally. Instead, it fell 1.0% to $4,119 per ounce, opening at $4,174.96 and closing at $4,120.35, a weekly decline of 1.31%. The U.S. Dollar Index opened at 99.54 and closed at 100.97, a weekly gain of about 1.44%. Safe-haven capital did not fully flow into gold but was instead diversified into various defensive currencies. Traders are paying more attention to yield expectations under hawkish central bank stances rather than war premiums.

3. June FOMC minutes hawkish, probability of rate hike rises significantly.

The June FOMC meeting minutes, released on July 8th, showed the committee voted 11-1 to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, but internal divisions were apparent. The minutes indicated that both core and headline inflation remain above the 2% target, primarily attributed to tariff impacts, supply chain disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and strong demand for certain goods and services. Officials significantly scaled back explicit forward guidance, signaling a rising inclination towards rate hikes. U.S. Treasuries exhibited a bearish steepening pattern: the 10-year yield rose 9 basis points to 4.56%, and the 30-year yield climbed 7 basis points, breaking through the key 5.06% threshold.

CME FedWatch data shows the market pricing in a 64.2% probability of holding rates steady in July and a 35.8% probability of a 25 basis point hike. The implied probability of at least one rate hike by September has risen to 72.1%. Over the past month, the probability of maintaining the current rate has dropped from 32.5% to 14.6%. Policy expectations have shifted from "hold" to "hike 25–50 basis points." The VIX fell to 15.03 during the same period, sitting at only the 10.7th percentile of its 252-day rolling range. Risk pricing in equity markets appears notably low, not fully aligned with the movements in oil prices, long-term yields, and geopolitical uncertainty.

II. Crypto Market

1. Market Overview: BTC recovers slightly, altcoin divergence intensifies.

BTC edged up 0.2% this week, oscillating between a low of $61,306 and a high of $64,700, closing the weekend near $64,000. ETH performed relatively better, rising 1.2% and maintaining its range between $1,786 and $1,805. The ETH/BTC ratio increased by 0.93%. Market sentiment improved slightly from last week's 23 (Extreme Fear) to 28 (Fear), but remains in the fearful zone. Total crypto market cap increased marginally by 0.3%. Excluding BTC and ETH, market cap rose by 1.2%. However, the broader altcoin market, excluding the top ten tokens, fell by 1.6%, indicating gains were concentrated in top assets.

2. ETF Flows: BTC ETF ends eight-week outflow streak; institutional capital stabilizes and repairs.

Spot BTC ETFs ended their eight-week net outflow streak this week, recording a net inflow of $197.4 million. Notably, on July 10th, daily net inflows reached $90.44 million, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing $86.83 million and VanEck's HODL adding $3.61 million. The total net asset value of all spot BTC ETFs reached $77.42 billion. Spot ETH ETFs also saw net inflows of $84.4 million, signaling a concurrent recovery in demand.

The halt of ETF outflows is a key reason why BTC was able to stabilize around $61,000 and return to near $64,000. However, from a price action perspective, ETF inflows have not yet pushed BTC decisively through $65,000, suggesting institutional buying is more about stemming the bleeding and repairing positions rather than a full-scale return. The maximum drawdown in fund flows currently stands at 18.98%, with the current drawdown at 18.32%. The key short-term level for BTC remains $65,000. Only a sustained break above this level with increased volume can shift the rebound target higher.

3. On-Chain Data: Stablecoin growth limited; Robinhood Chain reaches $132M TVL in first week.

The stablecoin market cap has temporarily stopped contracting but has seen limited growth, insufficient to signal a clear phase of liquidity expansion in the crypto market. USDT's market share remains high at 58.98%. USDC's market cap reached $73.417 billion, growing 0.51% over seven days. USDe supply decreased by approximately 11.2% over the week, while the tokenized money market product BUIDL grew by about 21%. Overall, capital still favors high-certainty dollar-denominated instruments.

Within two weeks of its launch, Robinhood Chain's TVL surpassed $132 million, reaching a new all-time high of 217,000 daily active users. On-chain liquidity is primarily contributed by Morpho and Uniswap. Notably, the core driver of the TVL surge was not Meme coin trading, but Ethena injecting approximately $50 million in stablecoins into Morpho's USDG liquidity pool, directly pushing TVL up over 160% in a single day. The Meme coin CASHCAT brought real transaction volume and user activity to the chain. However, the tokenized real-world asset sector currently has a volume of only about $12.8 million, indicating the core track is still in its early, slow-growth stages.

4. Industry Narrative: Strategy conducts first major BTC sale; institutional infrastructure development accelerates.

Strategy announced this week the sale of 3,588 BTC for $216 million to pay second-quarter dividends for STRF, STRE, STRK, STRD, and the full monthly dividend for STRC in June. This is the first large-scale sale following a previous symbolic sale of 32 BTC. As of July 6th, the company's BTC reserves stood at 843,775 BTC, with cash reserves of $2.55 billion. STRC has traded below its par value of approximately $87 for seven consecutive weeks, with a weekly trading volume of $453 million, accounting for 79.8% of the total volume of Bitcoin Reserve Preferred Securities. Strive's SATA accounted for 8.9%. Saylor explained that if BTC appreciates at an annualized rate exceeding 3.3%, it can indefinitely support STRC dividends. Even if BTC has 0% annual growth, there are still 31 years of dividend funding available.

On the institutional infrastructure front, Swift, in collaboration with 17 global banks, launched a blockchain-based shared ledger and initiated a tokenized deposit pilot. This marks a substantial step forward in the development of institutional-grade settlement infrastructure. South Korea's Toss partnered with Optimism to pilot a Korean Won-pegged stablecoin infrastructure, accelerating the deployment of compliant stablecoins in the Asia-Pacific region. Gauntlet completed a $125 million funding round, led by SBI Holdings, to expand its institutional-grade DeFi vault business, reflecting continued institutional capital commitment to the on-chain asset management track.

This article is a market analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment carries high risk. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance and strictly implement risk controls before trading.