SpaceX falls below $150 on its first day of index inclusion; Wall Street is overwhelmingly bullish with a target price as high as $800?
- Core Thesis: SpaceX was rapidly added to the Nasdaq 100 Index, but the stock price declined instead of rising after the positive development was priced in, hitting a new all-time low. The short term faces pressure from a large-scale stock lock-up expiry in August, but institutions are generally bullish on its long-term value and have issued buy ratings.
- Key Factors:
- SpaceX was added to the Nasdaq 100 Index on July 7th with a weighting of approximately 1.3%. However, the stock price fell by 6.8% on the same day to $149.47, setting a new all-time closing low.
- The positive catalyst of index inclusion had already been priced in. The $43 billion in passive fund inflows estimated by JPMorgan Chase were largely executed before the inclusion date, failing to boost the stock price on the day.
- August will bring the pressure of a large-scale stock lock-up expiry, allowing internal shareholders to sell up to 44% of their holdings. This bearish expectation has already suppressed market sentiment in advance, with institutions recommending building positions during the pullback.
- Despite short-term pressure, multiple Wall Street institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, have collectively issued buy ratings with target prices ranging from $200 to $800, expressing optimism about its long-term value.
- Potential short-term positive catalysts include: the "pump" effect potentially linked to Trump's political associations, and the planned 13th flight test of Starship on July 14th, which could help boost market sentiment.
Original by Odaily (@OdailyChina)
Author: Golem (@web3_golem)
SpaceX has made history once again: On Tuesday, July 7, SpaceX was officially added to the Nasdaq 100 index, becoming the fastest company to be included in the Nasdaq 100 since its listing, with an approximate weight of 1.3% in the index. However, this historic achievement did not translate into gains for SpaceX's stock price. According to Gate US stock data, SPCX closed down over 6.8% on Tuesday at $149.47, hitting its lowest closing price since going public. How will SPCX perform going forward? And what judgments have Wall Street institutions made?
Index Inclusion's Good News Is Already Priced In; Holding $150 Is No Small Feat
Before SpaceX was included in the Nasdaq 100, JPMorgan estimated it would trigger at least approximately $4.3 billion in passive fund inflows. Subsequently, over $800 billion in funds tracking the Nasdaq 100 index would also passively allocate to SpaceX.
Although this is a significant positive catalyst, the prospect of "entering the Nasdaq" has been hyped since SpaceX's first day of trading. Market expectations had already been digested, and by the time the event materialized on July 7, market sentiment lacked the momentum to push the stock higher. On the other hand, the massive buying power behind the Nasdaq index does not all hit the market on the day of inclusion; in reality, most passive fund purchases were already executed before July 7.
Furthermore, historical data also shows that index inclusion does not necessarily constitute a sustained upward signal and has, in some cases, marked a local peak.
Strategy is a classic example. On December 23, 2024, Strategy was added to the Nasdaq 100. However, MSTR opened higher but closed lower that day, falling approximately 7.3% to close at $332.23. Subsequently, Strategy entered a sustained downtrend, with its stock price dipping to $255.43 in February 2025. The passive buying triggered by its Nasdaq inclusion failed to provide effective support for Strategy's stock price.
And now, with the positive catalyst of index inclusion fully priced in, the widely anticipated negative overhang of the August stock lockup expiration will be magnified. SpaceX's prospectus clearly states that two days after the Q2 2026 earnings report, eligible internal shareholders can sell up to 20% of their locked-up shares. If the stock price is 30% above the IPO price and meets that threshold for five days, an additional 10% can be unlocked. 22V Research strategist Jeff Jacobson estimates that insiders could sell up to 44% of SpaceX shares by early September.
Similar to how the positive expectations of index inclusion were priced in ahead of time, the panic surrounding the SpaceX stock unlock will also be reflected in the price in advance. This is a key factor suppressing SpaceX's stock price in the near term and going forward. BitMine Chairman Tom Lee also specifically mentioned the upcoming SpaceX stock unlock in an interview, stating that chasing SPCX higher in the short term is not advisable and that building positions during the pullback caused by the unlock would be a more suitable strategy.
However, at Tuesday's US stock market close, SpaceX wasn't the only one falling. According to Gate US stock data, all three major US stock indexes closed lower. The Dow fell 0.25%, the S&P 500 fell 0.45%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.16%. AI concept stocks also saw broad declines: Astera Labs fell 11.52%, Ambarella fell 9.92%, Teradyne fell 9.59%, and AeroVironment fell 8.09%.
In this context, given the broad market selloff and with the good news already priced in, SPCX's ability to hold near the $150 level without breaking its IPO price is quite an achievement. Additionally, according to OptionCharts data, SPCX's current Put-Call Ratio is 0.92, indicating that market sentiment remains neutral and not significantly bearish.
Furthermore, a large number of call options expiring on July 10 are stacked at and above the $160 level for SPCX, making the $150-$155 range a key battleground between bulls and bears.
Institutions Give Collective Buy Ratings; Potential Upside Catalysts for SPCX?
Clearly, neither the timing nor the market sentiment is on the side of the bulls. Over the past month, SPCX has tested the $150 support level multiple times. However, previously the $150 level was a launching pad for offense; now, it is purely a defensive line. Strangely enough, after the IPO quiet period ended, Wall Street institutional analysts have collectively issued Buy ratings for SPCX.
As IPO underwriters, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have both given SpaceX Buy ratings. Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan set a price target of $205, while Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas gave a $300 price target. Additionally, Bank of America initiated coverage on SpaceX with a Buy rating and a $235 price target. Citigroup set a target of $200; Bernstein gave an Outperform rating with a $239 target; Macquarie Group set a target of $250; Deutsche Bank set a target of $255; JPMorgan set a target of $225; UBS set a target of $210; and Wells Fargo set a target of $230.
Raymond James Financial offered the most optimistic forecast, with analyst Brian Gesuale setting a target price of $800 for SPCX, believing SpaceX will become "one of the most iconic industrial infrastructure companies of the 21st century."
However, these institutional ratings are primarily bullish on SpaceX's long-term value, such as its prospects in rocket launches, Starlink, and AI space data centers. In the short term, especially before the August stock unlock wave, what else can SpaceX rely on to support its stock price from falling below $150 and heading straight for the $135 IPO price? Foreseeable potential positive catalysts include the following:
First, potential endorsement from Donald Trump. On July 7, SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell and her husband announced their participation in the "Invest America" plan, donating some of their SpaceX shares to the Trump accounts of over 2 million American children. The donation involves approximately 2 million SpaceX shares, worth a total of about $325 million. Previously, Trump had publicly called on Elon Musk to donate SpaceX stock to the "Trump Account." Trump is a businessman who understands value exchange. Now that SpaceX stock has entered the "Trump Account," he might publicly endorse SpaceX similar to how he promoted Micron and Dell.
Second, the SpaceX Starship flight test planned for July 14. The target launch date for SpaceX Starship's 13th flight test (Flight 13) is currently set for Tuesday, July 14, 2026, with a backup date of July 15. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has issued an operational advisory confirming the NET (No Earlier Than) date of July 14. Rocket launches always capture public interest. As a world-leading aerospace company, each SpaceX launch receives global attention. If Flight 13 is successfully completed, the SpaceX narrative could once again ignite "fan" enthusiasm in the short term, potentially pushing the stock price higher. While the community and tracking sites generally see July 14 as the primary launch target, delays of a few days to weeks are possible due to technical readiness, weather, or other factors.
Ultimately, though, what investors most anticipate is perhaps for Musk himself to do something to "rescue the market."
