BTC drops below $60,000—can it still hit $100,000?

特邀专栏作者

2026-07-02 02:44

This article is about 5262 words, reading the full article takes about 8 minutes

Bitcoin has fallen below $60,000 and is down approximately 30% in the first half of the year. However, Standard Chartered Bank still maintains its year-end target of $100,000, viewing the pullback as a potential buying opportunity. This article will combine insights from Bernstein, ETF fund flows, and key price levels to analyze whether BTC can rebound in July.

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Core Thesis: In July 2026, after experiencing a roughly 30% decline in the first half of the year and breaking below $60,000, Bitcoin sees major institutions like Standard Chartered and Bernstein still maintaining year-end price targets of $100,000 to $150,000. They view the pullback as a buying opportunity and suggest that the sell-off pattern driven by ETF outflows may reverse.
Key Elements:
1. Bitcoin accumulated a decline of about 30% in the first half of the year, with ETF net outflows reaching a record $4.06 billion in June, causing the price to drop from $65,800 to around $59,000.
2. Standard Chartered maintains its year-end target of $100,000, attributing the decline to ETF outflows, leveraged liquidations, and specific unwinding events rather than a change in fundamentals.
3. Bernstein holds firm on a $150,000 year-end target, arguing that the four-year cycle is breaking down and an institutional-led long-term bull market will push prices to a peak near $200,000 by 2027.
4. ETF fund flows exhibit a pattern of three "sharp drop—rebound" cycles. While hedge funds and brokerages have been reducing positions, banks (such as JPMorgan and Wells Fargo) and sovereign wealth funds are increasing their holdings against the trend.
5. The key support level is between $58,000 and $60,000. A breakdown below this could see a drop to $55,000; a move back above $65,800 would signal an end to the downtrend.

Bitcoin has just endured its toughest stretch since 2026, posting a cumulative decline of approximately 30% in the first half of the year and potentially closing lower for a second consecutive quarter, a scenario that has only occurred twice before in Bitcoin history.

BTC dropped from around $65,800 at the beginning of June to below $60,000 by the start of July. The decline was characterized by a slow grind lower throughout most of June rather than a sudden, single-day crash.

However, amid this downturn, Standard Chartered made a rather unusual move.

Instead of lowering its Bitcoin price forecast for the third time this year, the bank maintained its year-end target of $100,000, with its lead analyst even describing the drop as a buying opportunity rather than a warning signal.

This contrast — falling prices on one side, a major bank refusing to waver on the other — sits at the heart of this July 2026 Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction.

Below, we break down the signals currently being sent by Standard Chartered, Bernstein, and ETF flow data, and outline the key price levels to watch for the remainder of the month.

Key Takeaways

As of July 1, 2026, Bitcoin was trading around $59,000, down roughly 30% in the first half of the year.
Despite BTC falling below $60,000, Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick maintains a $100,000 year-end target for 2026, calling the pullback a buying opportunity.
Bernstein maintains its more optimistic target of $150,000 for 2026, last reaffirmed on March 24, 2026.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $4.06 billion in June 2026, the largest single-month redemption since the funds launched in January 2024.
This outflow represents the third such cycle in 2026, following similar reversals in February and April. This pattern is as noteworthy as any single price target.
Support is roughly established near the $58,000 level; a move back above approximately $65,800 would signal the downtrend may be ending.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction July 2026: Standard Chartered Refuses to Abandon $100,000 Target

Entering July, one of the most closely watched Bitcoin price predictions comes from Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick, the bank's Head of Digital Assets Research.

Even after the recent price drop below $60,000, he maintains his year-end BTC target of $100,000, and his reasoning goes beyond vague optimism.

How the $300,000 Bitcoin Prediction Was First Halved, Then Cut Again

Before directly addressing the $100,000 figure, it's important to understand that this target has already survived two downward revisions this year.

Standard Chartered started 2026 with a bolder forecast of $150,000, itself a significant reduction from the bank's even more aggressive $300,000 prediction made in 2025.

Kendrick's original thesis rested on two independent demand pillars: steady corporate treasury buying, pioneered by Strategy, and accelerating spot Bitcoin ETF inflows.

When corporate treasury buying slowed markedly late last year, the bank cut its target to $150,000, indicating future gains would effectively rely solely on ETF buying.

Then, in February 2026, as ETF outflows accumulated early in the year, Kendrick again reduced the target to $100,000, while warning that Bitcoin could first drift toward $50,000 before a genuine recovery.

Therefore, when this July 2026 Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction mentions Standard Chartered's view, it's worth knowing this number has weathered two downturns and has not yet required a third revision.

Standard Chartered Calls This Crash a Gift, Not a Warning

Kendrick's decision to stick with his target during the June sell-off is based on quite specific reasons, not just a general bullish stance.

He points out that this decline originates genuinely from Bitcoin ETF outflows, forced liquidations related to over-leveraged positions, and a small-scale liquidation by a corporate holder, rather than a change in Bitcoin's underlying demand logic.

In his view, the combination of these factors looks more like a temporary setback than the start of a prolonged bear market; he has publicly labeled the dip below $60,000 as a buying opportunity.

Standard Chartered's long-term view has also changed little, with the bank still forecasting Bitcoin to reach $500,000 by 2030, though the path to get there is slower than initially envisioned.

Where Bitcoin Currently Stands, and Why It Just Experienced Its Worst Month in 2026

According to CoinMarketCap data, as of July 1, 2026, Bitcoin was trading slightly below $59,500.

Based on CoinGecko historical price data, this means BTC has fallen over 50% from its all-time high of $126,080 set in October 2025.

Looking only at the past month provides a clearer picture.

BTC opened June near $65,800 and trended steadily lower throughout the month. Multiple ETF flow reports showed Bitcoin's price mostly in the $58,000 to $60,000 range during June, settling closer to $59,000 by the start of July.

The primary driver of this decline wasn't a Bitcoin-specific scandal or a new regulatory shock, but a wave of spot Bitcoin ETF withdrawals.

June became the worst month for ETF outflows since these products launched in the US in January 2024, continuing a redemption trend that had already formed since mid-May.

Context is also needed here: According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, cumulative net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs since their 2024 launch still stand at around $55 billion. While flows turned negative for 2026 year-to-date during the May and June outflow waves, this looks more like a difficult adjustment than a mass institutional exodus.

Compounding this, with overall financial market risk appetite declining and investors fearing the Fed might keep rates higher for longer, BTC had little support to rely on for most of June.

None of this means Bitcoin's long-term trajectory has changed, but it does explain why so many traders are now eager for clear Bitcoin price predictions rather than just silently watching the charts.

Bullish Scenario vs. Bearish Scenario: How High or Low BTC Could Go Next

Not all Wall Street institutions are as cautious as Standard Chartered.

Bernstein actually moved in the opposite direction this year, raising its 2026 Bitcoin price target to $150,000, describing the 2026 downturn as one of the mildest bear market scenarios in Bitcoin's history. The firm last reaffirmed this view on March 24, 2026, believing that this time there has been no systemic failure typical of past crypto winters.

Led by Gautam Chhugani, Bernstein analysts argue that Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle linked to halving schedules may be breaking down, replaced by a longer, institution-led bull run, predicting a potential cycle peak near $200,000 in 2027 and a long-term target of around $1 million by 2033.

Zooming out further, ARK Invest's own research, in a base case scenario, estimates Bitcoin's market cap at approximately $16 trillion by 2030. Based on current supply, this translates to roughly $750,000 to $800,000 per Bitcoin, driven primarily by what the firm sees as Bitcoin's expanding role as digital gold and adoption at the institutional and sovereign levels.

In short, the bullish scenario is a near-term range of $100,000 to $150,000 by year-end, followed by much higher numbers in the latter half of this decade.

The bearish scenario relies more on the charts themselves than any single analyst model.

Support is roughly established in the $58,000 to $60,000 range, which also aligns with the price range Bitcoin occupied for most of June, as shown in multiple ETF flow reports.

If a breakdown below this range is confirmed, the price could fall further toward $55,000; conversely, reclaiming the approximately $65,800 level where Bitcoin started June would be the clearest signal yet that the downtrend may be over.

Simply put, this July 2026 Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction isn't a single number, but a range: the downside anchor is roughly $55,000, while the upside could be $150,000 or higher, depending on which group of analysts you find more persuasive.

Why Two Banks Looking at the Same Bitcoin Chart Can Differ by $50,000

For those new to cryptocurrency, seeing two major banks look at the same Bitcoin chart yet reach conclusions about its December price that differ by $50,000 can be confusing.

This gap usually depends on which piece of the puzzle each analyst prioritizes.

Standard Chartered's model heavily relies on ETF flow data, as Kendrick has stated that after the slowdown in corporate treasury buying, future Bitcoin price appreciation will effectively depend on this single channel.

Bernstein's model, conversely, values another perspective: that Bitcoin's past four-year bull/bear cycles tied to halving schedules are no longer applicable now that institutions, rather than retail, dominate most buying and selling.

Neither framework is necessarily wrong; they are simply measuring different signals. This is precisely why this July 2026 Bitcoin price prediction references multiple sources rather than picking one number and presenting it as a definitive answer.