Citrini Research: Attention Devoured by AI, These Targets Have Become Deep Value Plays

Original Author: Citrini Research

Original Translation: TechFlow

Introduction: While analysts across the market are busy calculating how much HBM and specialty Taiwanese glass the data centers need, the truly scarce resource is "attention" itself. Three years of the AI narrative have led to overcrowded capital, but the rest of the world is still turning: the life sciences cycle has bottomed out, retirement properties are full, and sports venues are selling out. These forgotten sectors are quietly repairing their fundamentals... For investors, the biggest Alpha right now might not lie on the AGI timeline, but in the "small themes" that nobody is modeling.

Note: The following is a summary of the core content from Citrini Research's latest report. The original text is behind a paywall. This article compiles information from its public summary and multiple sources.

The Attention Tax

Did you know? Compute power, electricity, HBM, NAND, the concrete and transformers used to build data centers, that special glass from Taiwan, and the alphabet soup technology that converts light into data — all are in short supply.

Yes, of course you did. But amidst the AI-driven shortages, there's an even scarcer input factor: attention.

Every marginal hour of analyst brainpower (or analyst token budget) is being pulled towards a single trade. We know this firsthand. We've spent most of the past three years tracking (and occasionally shaping) that narrative.

But this shortsightedness comes at a cost. We think it's time to broaden our horizons.

The AI trade — at the very least — is crowded, even if it's correct. We see a high risk of "AI fatigue" and are likely to see some degree of capital rotation towards things people seem to have stopped caring about.

The mechanism we care about is simple: Capital floods into one theme, peripheral assets become underweighted, and that's interesting in itself. These assets are also under-modeled and overlooked.

We mentioned this when discussing the life sciences cycle — in our view, that cycle has bottomed. Five years ago, we would see these stocks bouncing from lows, anticipating the upcycle. But now they're stuck in the mud at 52-week lows. No one wants to shift risk into the destocking recovery phase because "DRAM is the bottleneck."

The world keeps spinning. The gap between forgotten expectations and changing realities is always where thematic investing makes money. Attention is a limited resource, but it can shift rapidly in a typical momentum reversal. Sometimes, when it shifts, it brings new focus into investor consciousness, even if momentum then swings back to the upside.

We're revisiting our "small themes" — trends and catalyst-driven trades that aren't decade-defining market disruption stories. Instead, they are interesting, low-radar narratives in less hot sectors that could surprise. Five themes, none requiring a view on the AGI timeline or tokenomics. Boomers moving into retirement homes. Stadium tickets selling out. A two-decade exchange monopoly facing its first real competition. A fintech recovery. And airline stocks — two of our favorite names penalized for eighteen months for reasons completely unrelated to their profitability.

Our macro view is that the market will continue to rise, but we'll also see noticeably more 10-15% sharp sell-offs, driven more by positioning than fundamentals. This means we should hold onto semiconductor names, but probably shouldn't let them be the only thing on the map. Right now, over the past month, we've been gradually reducing our AI allocation because everyone with an internet connection is wearing a "bottleneck investor" hat, and we're getting increasingly interested in what the AI Dutch Disease leaves behind.

Theme 1: Airline Stocks, Penalized for 18 Months for Reasons Unrelated to Profitability

Citrini is bullish on Delta and United, and this call has been consistent for over two years. In November 2024, they wrote about the "structural reset" in the airline industry, arguing these two mainline carriers would be winners.

Two years later, Citrini remains bullish. The report points out that the decline of these two stocks over the past 18 months was driven almost entirely by macro factors — first tariff-induced inflation fears, then the Iran war pushing up oil prices — none of which had anything to do with how much the airlines themselves are earning.

According to Business Insider, Citrini believes that as the economy moves past the shadows of tariff inflation and oil price shocks, the growth prospects for these two companies remain strong. The report highlights a key trend: the K-shaped economy is intensifying divergence, and mainline carriers are not resisting it but actively embracing it — tilting towards premiumization to boost revenue per passenger.

Furthermore, the 2026 World Cup is seen as a short-term catalyst, with global travel demand from the tournament directly benefiting airline stocks.

Theme 2: Senior Housing, 80+ Population Growing 56% in Ten Years, Facilities Fall Far Short

Citrini's second theme points to a sector that is not glamorous but is certainly certain: senior housing.

The core data is compelling: The US population aged 80 and over is projected to grow by over 56% in the next decade, far outpacing the overall population growth of roughly 5%. In 2026 alone, there will be an additional 1 million households with someone aged 80+, and this number will double to 2 million by 2029.

Supply on the facility side is far from keeping up. Citrini notes that this sector is largely overlooked because it lacks flashiness — it lacks the allure of AI and semiconductors. But the Baby Boomer generation is collectively entering their advanced years. This is a pure demographic-driven trend that doesn't depend on any policy assumptions or technological breakthroughs.

According to Business Insider, Citrini named three specific stocks: Senior housing REITs Welltower and Janus Living, and nursing home operator Brookdale Senior Living.

Theme 3: Live Entertainment, Best Performing Asset Class Over the Past Decade, Surpassing Tech Stocks

Citrini calls live entertainment the best-performing asset class over the past decade, even outperforming tech stocks.

The report's core thesis is that "being there" itself is becoming a luxury good. Consumers are willing to pay a high premium for live presence. Sports franchises, concerts, fighting events, and even movie theaters are all benefiting from this desire for "real presence." Citrini writes: "Sports franchises, and more broadly all offline events, are benefiting from people's desire to 'be there.' This comes with a greater opportunity for monetization through attendance, premiumization, and promotion."

According to Business Insider, Citrini specifically mentioned three companies:

TKO Group, the parent company of WWE and UFC, is highlighted for its strong financial growth and high-value partnerships. Cinemark reflects the trend of consumers returning to movie theaters. IMAX represents the direction of upgraded viewing experiences — audiences want more than just a movie; they want an immersive experience. IMAX shares hit an all-time high earlier this month.

Theme 4: Exchange Monopoly Challenged, CME Faces Its First Real Competitor in Twenty Years

The most institutionally-focused theme in Citrini's report points to a shift in the landscape of US futures exchanges.

CME Group holds approximately a 98% share of the US interest rate derivatives market, maintaining this near-absolute monopoly for over two decades. But the emergence of the FMX Futures Exchange is changing this landscape.

FMX, incubated by BGC Group (founded by current US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick), received CFTC approval in January 2024 and officially launched trading in the second half of 2025. Its shareholder list reads like a Wall Street all-star lineup: Bank of America, Barclays, Citadel Securities, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Jump Trading, Morgan Stanley, Tower Research Capital, and Wells Fargo each hold a minority stake, valuing the exchange at roughly $667 million.

FMX employs a three-pronged competitive strategy: lower trading fees, margin savings through a partnership with LCH, and incentive programs for liquidity providers. In February 2025, FMX hit a single-day trading volume record of 9,500 contracts.

CME is not without its vulnerabilities. Just last week (June 22), the CME Direct platform experienced a four-hour outage. This isn't the first instance of infrastructure disruption. FMX has previously stated publicly that CME's near-monopoly makes such incidents a systemic risk, arguing the market needs a reliable alternative exchange to ensure resilience.

Of course, the path for the disruptor isn't easy. During the tariff turmoil in April 2025, FMX trading volume collapsed by over two-thirds as traders instinctively flocked back to the deeper liquidity of CME during heightened volatility. However, as markets normalize, FMX's volume is gradually recovering. Bank of America estimates that CME generates about $2 billion in revenue from Treasury-related business alone — a profit pool large enough to justify long-term commitment from a challenger.

Theme 5: Fintech Recovery, the Most Beaten-Down Sector of 2026 is Bouncing Back

Citrini's fifth theme is fintech.

Fintech stocks were among the worst-performing sectors in 2026. As of the end of May, SoFi was down roughly 35% year-to-date, with Robinhood and Upstart each down about 25%. But starting in late May, the sector showed clear signs of a rebound.

The catalyst for SoFi was the launch of the SoFiUSD stablecoin, making it the first US licensed bank to issue its own stablecoin. The stock jumped 12% in a single day on the news. On the fundamentals side, SoFi's Q1 2026 revenue reached $1.1 billion, loan origination hit a record $12.2 billion (up 68% YoY), and membership topped 14.7 million. CEO Anthony Noto termed it a "strategic entry into the digital asset space" and is developing global payment settlement capabilities in partnership with Mastercard.

Robinhood, having navigated its 2022-2023 trough, has completed a U-shaped recovery. Full-year 2025 revenue grew 45% YoY, and net profit doubled. The acquisition of crypto exchange Bitstamp, the launch of the Gold credit card, and growth in Gold subscribers to 4.3 million are all driving its transformation from a "trading app" to a "financial super app."

Upstart saw a leadership change in May, with co-founder Paul Gu taking over as CEO, coinciding with renewed market interest in the AI credit platform narrative.

Citrini's logic is clear: When everyone is focused on semiconductors and data centers, fintech has been forgotten to extreme valuation levels. But the fundamentals of these companies haven't deteriorated; they've been improving. Once attention shifts even slightly, the rebound potential is significant.