铠侠年报里的「存储超级周期」：苹果订单暴增、原料库存激增，整条产业链都在抢先布局

Original Author: Dong Jing

Original Source: Wall Street CN

Morgan Stanley's latest analysis of Kioxia's annual report reveals a "super cycle" brewing in the storage industry.

On June 25, according to information from the Zhui Feng Trading Desk, the core conclusion of Morgan Stanley's latest research report points directly to one signal: The super cycle in the storage industry is accelerating to fruition. Consumer electronics giants are panic-buying, while upstream manufacturers are frantically stockpiling raw materials. Kioxia's annual report data serves as the clearest annotation of this cycle.

The report indicates that Apple's contributed revenue surged 58% year-over-year to 476 billion yen, significantly outpacing Kioxia's overall growth rate. This not only suggests a substantial price increase for consumer storage but also indicates that major customers are "pre-stocking" in anticipation of price hikes.

Meanwhile, as of the end of March 2026, Kioxia's raw material inventory surged, primarily used for the advance procurement of DRAM required for SSDs, confirming the supply tightness expectations in the upstream industry chain. Additionally, the company's capital expenditure is shifting entirely from factory construction to front-end equipment investments like BiCS-8.

Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on Kioxia with a target price of 110,000 yen, stating that AI-driven demand and strong free cash flow will provide solid support for the stock price.

Apple Orders Surge 58%, Consumer Giants Activate "Pre-Stocking" Mode

The biggest highlight of the annual report data lies in the sharp divergence in major customer orders.

For the fiscal year ending March 2026, annual revenue from Apple reached 476 billion yen, a 58% increase year-over-year. This growth rate far outpaced the company's overall revenue growth (+37%) and also exceeded the growth rate of the SSD and storage business segment (+40%).

Morgan Stanley believes this data supports two key judgments:

• First, the storage price increase in the March 2026 quarter has spread to the consumer end. The market previously focused on storage demand driven by data center customers, but Apple's hyper-growth in orders illustrates that the consumer electronics sector has also experienced substantial price increases, with Kioxia implementing significant price hikes for consumer-facing customers as well.
• Second, Apple exhibited pull-in procurement behavior. Against the backdrop of continuously strengthening expectations for ongoing storage price increases, Apple likely conducted pull-in procurement of components to lock in lower costs or ensure supply security. This behavior itself is a direct manifestation of the "preemptive positioning" logic within the entire industry chain.

Looking at historical data, Apple's share of Kioxia's revenue has jumped from approximately 18% in the fiscal year ending March 2024 to about 20% in the current fiscal year, with the absolute amount significantly rising from roughly 301 billion yen to 476 billion yen.

It is noteworthy that two major customers disclosed in the previous fiscal year ending March 2025 report — SanDisk and Dell — are no longer separately listed in this annual report as their revenue share dropped below the 10% threshold. SanDisk's revenue was previously disclosed in the quarterly report as 193.4 billion yen (-3% year-over-year).

Raw Material Inventory Surge: The Entire Supply Chain is Pre-Stocking for the Next Round of Price Increases

Morgan Stanley believes Kioxia's inventory data from the annual report reveals another key signal.

As of the end of March 2026, Kioxia's finished goods inventory and work-in-process inventory remained roughly flat year-over-year, but raw material inventory showed a significant increase.

Morgan Stanley judges that this change likely stems from advance procurement of DRAM for SSDs. DRAM is a crucial raw material for SSD production, and during an upward price cycle for storage, securing raw material supply in advance is a rational choice for manufacturers.

This shift in inventory structure echoes Apple's pull-in procurement behavior — from the end-brand to the storage manufacturer, the entire supply chain is positioning itself in its own way, betting on continued storage price increases.

In terms of total inventory, Kioxia's total inventory at the end of the fiscal year ending March 2026 reached 412.6 billion yen, increasing from 352.9 billion yen in the fiscal year ending March 2025, with the increase in raw material inventory being the most pronounced.

Capital Expenditure Structure Shift: From "Building Factories" to "Installing Equipment," BiCS-8 Mass Production Accelerates

The report points out that Kioxia's capital expenditure structure underwent a significant shift in the current fiscal year, directly reflecting the company's transition from the capacity construction phase to the equipment investment and volume ramp-up phase.

FY3/25 (Previous Fiscal Year): In tangible fixed assets, construction-in-progress transfers for buildings and structures were 109.9 billion yen, while transfers for machinery and equipment were 192.7 billion yen, indicating large-scale investment in factories and infrastructure for projects like the Kitakami plant.

FY3/26 (Current Fiscal Year): Transfers for buildings and structures plummeted to 6.2 billion yen, while transfers for machinery and equipment rose to 259.8 billion yen. Morgan Stanley believes this shows the capital expenditure focus has clearly shifted to BiCS-8 front-end wafer fabrication equipment at the Yokkaichi and Kitakami plants.

Looking ahead to FY3/27 (Next Fiscal Year), Kioxia plans capital expenditure of 450 billion yen, an increase of 166 billion yen year-over-year. Morgan Stanley judges that while there may be some investment in cleanroom construction within existing factories, the primary direction will still be front-end equipment investment for BiCS-8 and BiCS-10.

This capital expenditure path clearly shows that Kioxia is fully committed to building mass production capabilities for next-generation NAND flash memory technology, preparing the supply side for the upcoming demand peak.

Morgan Stanley maintains its "Overweight" rating on Kioxia with a target price of 110,000 yen, representing approximately 19% upside from the current stock price (approximately 92,290 yen as of the close on June 23, 2026). It also lists Kioxia as a Top Pick in the Japanese semiconductor sector.

Morgan Stanley uses the expected free cash flow (FCF) yield of approximately 10% for FY3/28 as a valuation anchor, believing this level provides ample support for the stock price. The implied price-to-earnings ratio based on the FY3/28 EPS forecast is 11 times.